Aer Lingus Group, Donegal Investment Group, Irish shares, Irish Stock Exchange, Irish value investing, ISEQ, Kentz Corp, Norish, Petroneft Resources, Prime Active Capital, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, Zamano
I expect to publish a performance-related post or two, but timeliness dictates I first take a closer look at what’s hot or not in The Great Irish Share Valuation Project. This year’s valuation phase was a 10 post epic stretching from Feb to May – so end-H1 presents a good opportunity to update share prices (plus some underlying valuation-related variables, primarily FX rates), and re-rank all 80 Irish shares in terms of their current upside potential. Obviously, I haven’t updated my underlying intrinsic valuations on the fly – that was never the intention – so pay close attention to any subsequent results & news flow for shares that might interest you. [But I generally find intrinsic valuations change slowly/incrementally]. I do have two last minute exceptions though:
Company: Kentz Corp
Price: GBP 926p
Well, this update’s pretty simple: Just a week ago, Kentz announced a recommended cash offer by SNC-Lavalin Group (SNC:CN) at GBP 935p per share. This seems to have taken the market by surprise, but it’s only an 18% premium vs. the 792p price target I published 3 months ago – arguably, one would expect such an additional control premium. I’ve even heard some PI mutterings about other potential bids… Yes, that’s always a possibility, but it doesn’t seem very realistic in this instance: With two other suitors rejected last year, I’m sure management explored all other possibilities before dropping their drawers for SNC-Lavalin.
Despite that, ideally I’d like to re-assess my valuation to determine whether a higher bid could be justified. But there’s been no subsequent results, except for a 10% increase in the company’s backlog (to $4.5 billion, plus a further $125 million contract announced in June). Which is clearly encouraging, but not much of a tangible basis for increasing my price target significantly. At this point, the most likely & logical price target is the recommended cash offer itself…
Price Target: GBP 935p
[NB: There are two other pending takeover offers to consider: i) A recommended share offer for Fyffes (FFY:ID) by Chiquita Brands International (CQB:US) - I expect this to close & already incorporated it into my 2014 FFY price target, and ii) a rejected share offer for Kenmare Resources (KMR:LN) by Iluka Resources (ILU:AU). I suspect KMR management (& shareholders?!) would prefer to go straight to hell, rather than accept this offer - unfortunately, the company's current operating, cash & debt trajectory all suggest hell is actually a distinct possibility. I haven't re-considered my much lower 2014 KMR price target at this point.]