Mega Millions!

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bribes, lottery, Mega Millions, NPV, tax

Most Glorious Personage,

I am glad you are reading this now. How are you together with your family members? I think all is well.

Despite the fact that I did not know you in person or have I seen you before but due to the reliable revelations of some of your most distinguished friends and esteemed acquaintances (who wish to remain anonymous), I decided to share this lucrative opportunity with you. I have no other choice, so kindly consider this message as vital, believing that sooner or later we will be multi millionaires.

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Avangardco – Eggsotic But Eggcellent!

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agri-business, Avangardco, Baker's Dozen, Big Bird, Black Earth region, Cal-Maine Foods, Cherkizovo, Cresud, eggs, Eurobond, hryvnia, MHP, Oleg Bakhmatyuk, Sprott Resource Corp, Ukraine, Ukrlandfarming

Avangardco (AVGR:LN)

I’ve recommended Avangardco in my Baker’s Dozen for 2012, but with their recent results and share price acceleration it’s time for a complete write-up. My Black Earth articles, here and here, are helpful background also. This Black Earth interest came about when I began i) seeking agricultural plays on the increasing global demand for protein as living standards improve around the world, which evolved into ii) identifying the most fertile farmland, generally accepted to be the Black Earth region of Ukraine & Russia and the Pampas of Argentina (followed by the Canadian Prairies), and iii) finding the cheapest (but acceptably fertile) farmland globally.

I was delighted to discover the most fertile farmland coincided with some of the cheapest farmland globally, a happy accident of history! I discarded Canada due to its higher cost (and the only farmland opp. I found was Sprott Resource Corp (SCP:CN), which is more of a commodity play). In Argentina, however, I discovered the perfect farmland (and property) company to invest in! Please read here, I now have a 2.8% portfolio stake in Cresud (CRESY:US). This left me with Russia & Ukraine: Farmland companies here have v large (and cheap) land holdings, but suffer from negative cashflows and the obvious need to raise cash from investors…

The Great Irish Share Valuation Project IX

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2P Reserves, Alkermes, Amarin, Anadarko, Andor Technology, Botswana Diamonds, Circle Oil, Clontarf Energy, Connemara Mining, Cooley Distillery, Cove Energy, Dragon Oil, Escher Group, Galantas Gold, Interior Services Group, iShares MSCI Ireland ETF, Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Jim Beam, John Teeling, Kentz, Minco, Ovoca Gold, Petrel Resources, PTT, Royal Dutch Shell, Siteserv, TGISVP, Tullow Oil, USPS, Worldspreads, Xstrata, Xtierra

Continued from here.

As I’ve mentioned, we’ve another 20 odd non-ISEQ listed Irish stocks to work through still. I should first note I’ve eliminated Alkermes (ALKS:US) and Amarin (AMRN:US) (and Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ:US) never even made the cut*). Clearly, an Ireland HQ is particularly attractive for pharma companies! Any reader care to enlighten us further..? I wasn’t fooled by this shell game, but they had some Irish directors/management/locations, so I planned to include them in TGISVP. Now I look again, their Irish ‘representation‘ is pretty small, and sure to get even smaller… So they’re out – unless someone wants to email and persuade me otherwise!?

I’ve also revised valuations for Worldspreads (WSPR:LN) and Siteserv (SSV:LN) – in fact, they kind of swap places in the rankings! I was briefly commenting here on both companies, and their respective scandals, and it got a little out of control..! I had to upgrade to a separate article. Note I’m keeping a file of all original share prices and valuations, which I’ll use for any performance/evaluation exercises at a later date. Right, let’s see if we find anything interesting in this batch:

You’ve Got to Pick-A-Pocket or Two…

Tags

Charlie McCreevy, Denis O'Brien, IBRC, IG Index, Phoenix magazine, segregated accounts, Siteserv, TGISVP, Worldspreads

Here’s Oliver!

I was working on my next set (non-ISEQ listed Irish stocks) of valuations for The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, and realized there were two very obvious revisions I needed to make… Yup, in my next TGISVP post, I’ll be adjusting the valuations for Siteserv (SSV:ID) and Worldspreads (WSPR:LN), after two scandals in a single bloody day! How do I express my sheer disgust here..?!

Let’s start with Siteserv:

Let’s Talk About Risk, Baby…

Tags

portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, Richland Resources, risk management, Salt-n-Pepa, technical analysis, trader, value investing

(All props first to Salt-n-Pepa).

In early-Feb, I published my first write-up on Richland Resources (RLD:LN), flagging an Upside Potential of 137%. Three weeks later, I was looking at a 65% gain on the share price. This presented an interesting dilemma (would that we could all enjoy more of these..!). But it seemed strange to be contemplating a sale so soon after diving in. Aren’t I a long-term holder, like most value investors..?! Well, ideally…but I use price, technicals and risk management to scale in and out of my positions.

For example, picture a GBP 100p stock I recommend/hold, and which I believe has a 125% Upside Potential. Sweet! With this kind of upside, I might have something like a 5% portfolio allocation. Shortly after, the stock shoots up 75% – so what do I do?! Well, in value investing world this is entirely expected (value will out, etc…) and I should definitely just sit tight. And sure I’ve got another 50% of value to realize…buy and hold, baby! Of course, in the real world, the answer may be a little different…

Richland Resources Refresh

Tags

Bernard Olivier, Dar Es Salaam, dilution, Gemfields, Ian Harebottle, JORC, Petra Diamonds, Richland Resources, sapphires, Special Mining License, tanzanite, technical analysis, tsavorite, Twitter

Please see my previous Richland Resources (RLD:LN) blog posts, here and here.

Well, RLD’s price action’s certainly been hectic since I last wrote about this stock in early Feb! One of the stock highlights I mentioned was the share price chart. While I was already fundamentally bullish, I was heartened by the fact the share price was threatening to break out of a long established trading range. This was capped at GBP 10.5p, and I speculated a break of this level might quickly lead to GBP 16.5p. Sure enough, it did, and in little more than three weeks..!

This prompted me to trim my position from an expanded 2.7% back down to 1.8%. I reported this at the time on my blog comments, and Twitter, so please be sure to sign up for one, or both, if you want to keep track of any specific stocks. Note I generally don’t do a new stock write-up until I have substantial new info/commentary to share (and I know you’re tracking news releases just like I am). Soon as I tweeted, Richard Beddard popped up to ask ‘Pourquoi? It sounded so glittery!‘ Haha, a bit tongue in cheek, methinks… Well, the quick 65% gain was pretty glittery too! I couldn’t resist taking it on a portion of my holding (btw I hope to write more shortly about this whole subject).

From Russia With Love (Part II)

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Aurora Russia, Baring Emerging Europe, closed-end funds, emerging markets, frontier markets, infrastructure, JPMorgan Russian Securities, Mongolia, Origo Partners, Prosperity Voskhod Fund, QE, Renaissance Russia Infrastructure Equities, Russia, Templeton Russia & East European Fund, Vietnam Infrastructure, Vietnam Opportunity Fund

Continued from here:     So why the interest in Russia? Well, for me, pretty much any emerging/frontier market’s preferable to those in the developed world these days! Everywhere I look, I see better growth, better demographics, better government finances, lower debt and no currency debasement… And all this for stock market valuations that are similar to/cheaper than Western markets. There are a number of markets I feel are particularly attractive – for example, I’ve highlighted Vinacapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund (VOF:LN) before as a good stock pick for exposure to Vietnam. With my continuing bullish view on oil and other commodities (and the inflation risks posed by global QE), Russia presents a compelling market opportunity.

So how does Russia actually stack up these days? Well, first one needs to realize how far it’s come. In the past 10 years GDP has more than quintupled, Russia’s now a Top 10 global economy, and average GDP per capita (in nominal terms) is around $16,700. This last stat’s v interesting – $17 K goes pretty far in what’s still an emerging market, and it explains the booming Russian middle class, something many investors have under-estimated.

From Russia With Love

Another of my top projects this year was to evaluate Russian fund investment opportunities. There are a couple of obvious candidates, but I wanted to thoroughly work my way through all (related) funds. This approach might seem exhaustive, but as I’ve discussed before any effort I’ve devoted to this type of analysis has always paid off in spades. This includes reading each fund’s last few annual reports, and evaluating returns (over 1, 3, 5 & 10 years, if available), the fund’s geographic focus, any particular company/sector concentration, and the percentage of the fund’s portfolio invested in unlisted stocks.

You might wonder why I’d spend the time looking at some of the funds below… Especially if it appears to be a poor match for what I’m actually looking for. But sometimes a fund portfolio and performance don’t exactly match what it says on the tin, and it takes some digging to identify this. For instance, Aurora Russia may soon be better classified as an interesting event driven opportunity rather than as a Russian fund investment.

TGISVP VIII – ISEQ Recap

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Allied Irish Banks, FBD Holdings, Irish shares, Irish Stock Exchange, Irish value investing, ISEQ, Petroneft Resources, Prime Active Capital, Russia, TGISVP, Total Produce, Tullow Oil, Zamano

Continued from here. I highlighted we’ve another 20 or so stock valuations to work through, but we’re now finished with all the ISEQ-listed Irish stocks. Whenever you consider Irish stock performance or are investing in some type of Ireland focused fund/product, it’s only these ISEQ stocks that will (likely) be relevant. We’re therefore at a good point to pause and provide some interesting stats & comments. I’ll use the TGISVP V Excel file from this post, but I’ve updated it here with current market prices as of March 7th (and included my TOT & FBD valuation updates):

TGISVP V (Mkt Prices Updated Mar 7th)     (xlsx file)

TGISVP V (Mkt Prices Updated Mar 7th)     (xls file)

Total Produce & FBD – Results

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Capespan, Combined Operating Ratio, EHEC scare, EPS guidance, FBD Holdings, Total Produce

Total Produce (TOT:ID or LN):

I think yesterday was the first time I’ve posted as a ‘hostage to fortune‘, buying and posting just ahead of a company’s annual results! So where do we stand now?

I was unfortunately expecting to be disappointed by the level of disclosure on certain items: No mention of the dissolution of their Indian JV with Tata – but revenues weren’t significant, and profits were obviously non-existent, and I far prefer they concentrate on a consolidation strategy in Europe, so who cares…