Summer Doldrums…So, What’s Your Fave Investment?

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favourite stock, plagiarism, readers, reading, stock ideas, summer doldrums, value investing

Summer doldrums are here again… A good time for a sanity check on your existing holdings, and some cash-raising? Perhaps time for a closer look at that long list of potential buys you’ve been meaning to revisit… Or, maybe most exciting, it’s time to find something new – there’s always plenty of interesting companies out there to find.

For example, the other night I randomly picked out about 30 London listed stocks to look at, and was amazed to find 3 interesting/high upside potential stocks…that I’d never even heard of before!

But, of course, many new ideas can be simply sourced from the financial & investing community. No harm in that, we’re all plagiarists – even the best investors happily admit to that! I encourage you to read, read & read – you never know where a ‘block-buster’ idea might turn up…  And in that spirit, I’d like to invite readers to share their favourite investment:

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Chasing Some Dividend Tail (II)..?

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Avon Products, dividend coverage, dividend snorting, dividend yield, income/dividend bubble, Ponzi, REIT/MLP sector, Supervalu Inc., tax-free compounding

Continued from here.

OK, so what’s wrong with a focus on income/dividends?

– Erm, everything..? I wrote about this recently – a focus on a single investment attribute’s always dangerous, but dividend yield certainly seems the v worst of the bunch to me. Sure, it all starts out innocently enough… You have a little toke on a 4% yield occasionally – feels good! But all too soon, it’s not enough – you end up calling your broker every single day, snorting up 6% yields left and right. But it’s OK, it’s low risk, you still know what you’re doing – not like those other losers… So how come I came across you the other day, twitching on a park bench, scanning the dividend column in the FT, muttering ‘All I need is just one more 9 per-center…‘?

– A ‘good‘ dividend yield can’t save a bad share. I wonder how much money’s been lost by people saying ‘…but hey, it’s got a great dividend…‘? All higher yields mostly seem to offer in a portfolio is a gradual migration into mature and/or declining businesses. And what does that offer in terms of upside?! Even worse, it leaves nowhere to hide when the dividend’s compromised – your income drops, and the share price crashes…

A Universe of Stocks…

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activist investors, Amberley Group, blind stock valuation, Brookwell Ltd, Brulines Group, catalyst, Ennismore, GemPAY, HTEC, Jewel in the Crown, P/S Ratio, Progressive Asset Mgmnt, Robert Goddard, segment/divisional reporting, Stephen McLeod, Universe Group, Vianet Group

Continued from here, and here. So, from a whole universe of stocks, what’s my bloody blind stock? Universe. No, seriously mate, what is it..? Universe! OK, you’re taking the piss, what the hell’s your blind stock?! Universe..! It’s Universe Group plc (UNG:LN) 🙂

Its core operating sub. (HTEC) has over 30 yrs of experience in providing Loyalty, Payment & Forecourt Technology Solutions to petrol retailers, primarily in the UK & Ireland. This is a specialized & attractive niche, with many of the major oil companies & UK supermarkets as customers. Universe reports in three functional segments: i) Petrol Forecourt Solutions (PFS): POS & payment systems, business analytics, and automatic number plate recognition (APNR) software, ii) Universe Data Services (UDS): Loyalty schemes, and APNR software, and iii) Contract Electronic Manufacturing (CEM): Contract design, development, manufacturing & repair services. Let’s jump straight into some total company figures¹ (for 2007-10):

The Jewel in the Crown

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blind stock valuation, caning, catalyst, Fair Value, Final Destination, Jewel in the Crown, Owner-Operator, segment/divisional reporting, stock screener, TGISVP

Continued from here. Lord, you’re harsh task-masters..! Erm, thank you, sir!

Let me just post the blind stock figures again, as a reminder:

A Game of Chicken

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adjusted earnings, annual reports, blind stock valuation, bloggers, chickens, exceptionals, gypsies, intrinsic value, P/E ratio, Warren Buffett

OK, perhaps it’s time I jump on the blind stock valuation bandwagon – there’s been some good posts/responses out there recently in that vein. I’ve noticed some issues, though, with this challenge approach:  First, a blind stock valuation where nobody turns out to own the stock seems like a v sterile exercise to me. Let me just tell you now: I do own this stock, it’s v bloody interesting, and I promise I’ll be telling you more about it soon..!

So please make sure to post/email your valuation/comments asap – all great encouragement for me to get on with a write-up!

Second, reading some of the challenges, I feel like there’s been some (understandable) confusion, on all sides. Some readers state, for example, a stock’s worth $20 but they wouldn’t pay more than $10 for it. Others peg the value of another stock at $40, but highlight the market would probably pay $80. Others give a range of values. And so on… All these seem a little off-base to me – particularly in the context of a blind stock valuation.

Hins..!

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chickens, gypsies, hens, Snatch, trader, travellers

Years ago, I was home alone one afternoon enjoying a good book. Just then, the door bell rang. I sighed – where I lived, the only people who unexpectedly rang the door bell were usually salesmen, or politicians. In fact, standard form for family & friends was to just march in the first open door they could find. And if they didn’t find you in the kitchen or sitting-room, they wouldn’t think twice about banging on the bathroom door just in case you were in there!

I reluctantly opened the door…to a child! Couldn’t have been more than six years old, just a few feet tall, and he was astonishingly filthy. Yes, some readers may have figured it out, he was a knack…sorry, a traveller – I guess you’d call him a gypsy today. And under his arm he was holding a chicken…

Chasing Some Dividend Tail (I)..?

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AIM stocks, dividend coverage, dividend yield, Expecting Value, income/dividend bubble, pitch books, REIT/MLP sector, Richard Beddard, Stockopedia, survivorship bias, tax, tax-free compounding, The Reformed Broker, UK Value Investor

There’s been a lot of good dividend commentary & debate in the UK blogosphere recently. Stockopedia seems to have ignited the debate:

http://www.stockopedia.co.uk/content/the-dividend-puzzle-or-why-the-dividend-emperor-may-have-no-clothes-66275/

Expecting Value & UK Value Investor chimed in with these:

http://expectingvalue.com/aroundtheweb/friday-reading-29#more-2326

http://www.ukvalueinvestor.com/2012/06/how-to-find-the-best-high-yield-shares.html

TGISVP – What’s Interesting, What’s Not..?

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Bank of Ireland, bubbles, dividend yield, DYOR, intrinsic value, ISEQ, natural resource stocks, Ovoca Gold, Permanent TSB, Petroneft Resources, Ponzi, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, Prime Active Capital, REIT/MLP sector, stock screener, TGISVP, Total Produce

In my last post, I was pleased to see TGISVP continue to deliver significant out-performance vs. the ISEQ benchmark. Early days yet: This could be blind luck, but hopefully it’s derived from a robust analytical process that clearly identifies over/under-valued shares. Which naturally demands a bit of a refresh…

I haven’t actually felt compelled to perform any Irish share revaluations since my TGISVP X post, even for stocks I hold. Personally, I’m pleased with this – I’m v comfortable with my Irish holdings, I believe my valuations are robust, and there’s been no unexpected news-flow. In light of my current Irish portfolio allocation (16%), and actual stocks I hold, I’d be reluctant to add another Irish share. This doesn’t mean forgetting the rest, of course! It does mean I can just watch out for interesting price drops, rather than agonize over constantly refreshing valuations.

TGISVP – H1 2012 Performance – Firing On all Cylinders!

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Aer Lingus, AGI Therapeutics, Alpha Portfolio, Beta Portfolio, Botswana Diamonds, Cove Energy, Datalex, ISEQ, Karelian Diamond Resources, market-neutral, natural resource stocks, Ovoca Gold, Petroneft Resources, portfolio performance, Prime Active Capital, Providence Resources, Readymix, Risk Arbitrage, Siteser, Smart Alpha Portfolio, Smart Beta Portfolio, TGISVP, Worldspreads

Now H1 2012 is over, it’s time to revisit The Great Irish Share Valuation Project. Here’s my Q1 2012 performance post – well worth revisiting as background, but I’ll recap some important points below.

Let’s first look at individual stocks. I count 4 de-listings (which I’ll continue to include for performance purposes, at their final values): AGI Therapeutics (AGI:ID/LN) was a profitable Event-Driven investment for me, and inspiration for some detailed Risk Arb. posts. Siteserv (SSV:ID/LN) & Worldspreads (WSPR:LN/ID) both exited amid scandal – possibly criminal in the case of the latter, with alleged charges now including share price manipulation, in addition to accounting/actual fraud. Finally, Readymix (RYX:ID) succumbed to a Cemex (CX:US) bid, illustrating that the right investment thesis (an eventual takeout by the controlling shareholder) is not enough. Timing & the price you pay are equally important – despite the bid premium, RYX’s multi-year operational & price decline meant v few long term shareholders made any profit. Looking ahead, Cove Energy (COV:LN) seems set to follow the de-listers, but promises to provide some final drama!

Hitting The Century (III)

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Argo Group, Avangardco, dividend coverage, dividend yield, EIIB, Ex-Cash Ratios, FBD Holdings, Net LTV, P/E ratio, Petroneft Resources, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, Price/Book, Price/Sales, TGISVP, Total Produce, Trinity Biotech, Wordpress

Damn WordPress! If you viewed/received a similar Century (Part III) post (since deleted), please ignore it – it was just a draft & I’ve updated/revised figures across the board since. Not quite sure how WordPress managed to publish it for me..!

Right, continued from here. In my last post I promised: ‘OK, next I’ll take you through each of my investment allocations – and try to give a flavour of my thinking, and some underlying stocks/funds, in each instance‘. However, I’ve just completed a detailed quarter-end portfolio update/review, so let’s flip things ’round – perhaps you’d be interested in a timely look at some portfolio metrics¹, and we’ll return to investment allocations in my next post?

Yes, really? So you like the pretty panties, but you still want to know the damn cost..?! Sigh, value investors..! OK: