Fastnet – What’s the Forecast?

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2P Reserves, Aventine Resources, Bruce Rowan, bubbles, Cathal Friel, Cove Energy, FAST, Fastnet Oil & Gas, Independent Resources, Island Oil & Gas, John Craven, Jubilee Field, junior resource stocks, Kosmos Energy, Michael Nolan, Minco, Minmet, Mizzen Basin, Molly Malone Basin, oil, Oisin Fanning, Orogen Gold, Paul Griffiths, Petroceltic, prospective resources, Raglan Capital, Rathdowney Resources, San Leon Energy, shipping forecast, short sellers, shorting, Sterling Green Group, Terra Energy, TGISVP, Tiger Resource Finance, US Oil & Gas, USOP, value investing

I eyed up US Oil & Gas (USOP) here (‘I swear, yer ‘onor, I wuz just looking…I nevah touched ‘er!‘), and promised to return to Fastnet Oil & Gas (FAST:LN)… Ooh er, collywobbles – what’s he going to say about this one? Well, I really don’t know, we’ll just have to see where this post takes us – a reminder I never have an agenda when taking a first look at a company. My only wish is to find an undervalued & interesting company, regardless of sector or business. That, to me, is sheer bliss..! On the other hand, finding a ridiculously overvalued company is simply a fascinating glimpse of (in?) humanity. Because shorting such a stock would be all too rare for me.

And no, I don’t think shorting stocks is the inverse of good (value) investing. In fact, I can’t emphasize that enough! I believe there are v few investors with the aptitude & fortitude to regularly short stocks successfully. And there’s whole other dimensions to that skill, anyway – as I’ve noted about overvalued stocks:

‘…there’s always a chance, on their journey to oblivion, that they’ll bubble higher & longer than you might ever expect. After all, you can’t analyze irrationality, and you certainly can’t analyze stupidity…’

Right, back to the job at hand: Aah, Fastnet… That really conjures up childhood memories of the shipping forecast. ‘Specially on a stormy night. It’s amazing the drama one could wring from such rigid & clipped broadcasts. Comfortably sprawled in front of a blazing fire – half asleep before bed-time… Drifting away to the cadence of the names – Fastnet, Malin Head, Dogger. Thoughts of far-off barren rocks, mournful lighthouse flashes, giant crashing waves, and lonely fishing boats adrift in the black night, were sure to send a delicious thrill down one’s spine. Seems I’m not the only one who fell under this spell – just take a look here: ‘Influences on Popular Culture’. Here’s another fond tribute... And finally, here’s a marvelous Economist piece on the Fastnet lighthouse.

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Stockopedia – Another Good School Report!

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Begbies Traynor, correlation, Facebook, gymkhana, How to Make Money in Value Stocks, IPO, JJB Sports, junior resource stocks, message boards, stock screener, Stockopedia, value investing

I’m pleased to announce you (and some new readers, hopefully) will now be seeing some Wexboy posts syndicated over on Stockopedia! Of course, you’re the very first to find out. Well, after my dear old parents, that is… C’mon, it’s been sooooo long since I could bring home a rosette (look left/scroll down) 🙂 What’s this digital crap anyway, I want the real thing! To add to my dusty gymkhana rosette collection...

Here’s the first syndicated post: Correlation…Schmorrelation!

Uhoh, I forgot there might be comments popping up there… And the first comment’s a goody! Yes, agreed, Begbies Traynor (BEG:LN) management certainly seems pretty clueless – judging from the share price & my own reading to date. But they’ve been cutting a lot of dead wood recently (good restructuring practice, eh? ;-)), so it’s worth a deeper dig to figure out how they’re shaping up now. But I have other UK candidates (in the ‘distressed‘ business) to look over, which I suspect will offer far better operational/financial histories.

Hitting The Century (VII – Natural Resources)

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agri-business, BP, bubbles, correlation, garbage stocks, gold, Howard Marks, idiots, inflation, junior resource stocks, miners, natural resource stocks, oil, Petroneft Resources, QE, quantitative easing, Richland Resources, silver, Statoil, Total

In my recent Inflation post, I elaborated on my conclusion that, contrary to widespread (and my prior) opinion, inflation was likely to prove a fairly distant threat. Despite the smoke rising from the bloody printing presses… And despite the Fed since confirming their long-expected QE III – or should I say: QE Forever, QE Infinity, QE God Fucking Save Us… Take your pick! You know, the mind boggles – how/why on earth does the Fed confidently expect Agency MBS purchases to smoothly flow through into improved labour conditions?!

No real need to revisit my post, just read Howard Marks’ latest instead, which came out a few days later. In his memo, he covers much of the same ground – probably in a far better & more relentless manner… [And apologies if I ramble on: Remember, with this series, my intention isn’t to necessarily write about specific stocks here, old or new. Rather it’s to give you some deeper insight into the thoughts, logic and pros & cons underlying each of my allocations].

The New Vegas: US Oil & Gas (USOP)

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2P Reserves, Brian McDonnell, Caveat Emptor, Chris Comerford, delisting risk, disorderly market, Eblana, Fastnet Oil & Gas, FBD Holdings, GXG Markets, intrinsic value, junior resource stocks, Karim Akrawi, Las Vegas, M&A, Nevada oil & gas, Petroneft Resources, PLUS Markets, prospective resources, TGISVP, US Oil & Gas, USOP

I missed 2 Irish stocks earlier this year for The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (& here’s the latest TGISVP post). The first was Fastnet Oil & Gas plc (FAST:LN), which only IPO’d in June. The second was US Oil & Gas plc (USOP), which was actually suspended at the time (and finally delisted in April)! I must admit, I’ve put off looking at them for the past month or two – TGISVP gave me a real bellyful of junior resource stocks! I wasn’t feeling too hopeful about the analysis & prospects of these candidates either. My bloody bad..! Sorry, Fastnet, right now USOP’s beckoning!

Picture the desert, feel that heat, that blazing sun – you’re just a poor thirsty investor, simply trying to stay alive… You’re on your knees. But wait… What’s that you see? A shimmer, a glint just there on the horizon? You painfully stand, stumble, begin to walk, and then break into a shuffling trot. You begin to hope, against hope – maybe it’s water, an oasis, can it be..?

Nothing else matters, you stagger on as fast as your weakened body allows, and still you see it! That shimmer begins to solidify, begins to seem more real, it even draws closer, maybe just maybe you’ll make it… But suddenly that image, your goal, flickers and changes. You no longer see the water that’s been driving you crazy, that you were almost able to taste in all its cold glorious wonder. But wait, what do you see instead? Yes! Oh yes, it’s far far better, it’s amazing…it’s OIL!!!

Correlation…Schmorrelation!

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activist investors, agri-business, Asta Funding, beta, catalyst, Colony Financial, correlation, distressed assets, Europe, Event Driven, favourite stock, Fortress Investment Group, litigation funding, Margin of Safety, reading, Risk Arbitrage, risk management, stock ideas, umbrellas & ice cream, value investing, wind-down

Monday, I re-posted my appeal for your fave stock ideas, which was originally prompted by the dog days of summer. Those months when trading volume & news slows down, and you’re off for a relaxing holiday, are a perfect time to open your mind & embrace new ideas. Take along some good books for their historical perspective, magazines to dip into the current market/economy buzz, and (most importantly) stacks & stacks of annual reports. And just read, read, read..!

Personally, my focus over the summer’s been on correlation. Some investors are great at stock-picking, risk management & portfolio construction, while others are abysmal..! But, all too often, there’s precious little difference in respective performance. Because we’re all terribly correlated with the market, and with the economy – yep, we’re all making pretty much the same big bet! A preference for discounted assets, special situations & stocks with specific catalysts is my attempt to escape this correlation risk. Medium-longer term, I think this approach offers a genuine ‘edge‘ via lower beta stocks. Trouble is, shorter term, market correlation (especially in market setbacks) can simply trounce all other factors…

REPOST: Summer Doldrums…So, What’s Your Fave Investment?

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favourite stock, plagiarism, readers, reading, stock ideas, summer doldrums, value investing

Thks, folks! I believe I’ve emailed everybody who submitted a fave investment idea & promised I’ll be taking a closer look. [Apologies if you didn’t hear from me, would you plse resend your email as a reminder?]. Anyway, I’m still looking for more ideas, so plse read my re-post below & I look forward to hearing from you! All retweets/emails/links of this post would be appreciated also.

REPOST:

Summer doldrums are here again… A good time for a sanity check on your existing holdings, and some cash-raising? Perhaps time for a closer look at that long list of potential buys you’ve been meaning to revisit… Or, maybe most exciting, it’s time to find something new – there’s always plenty of interesting companies out there to find.

Hitting The Century (VI – Real Assets)

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agri-business, balance sheet, bank lending, churning, commercial property, de-leveraging, deflation, ECB, Fed, gold, inflation, natural resource stocks, portfolio allocation, residential property

Oh well, back to the grind..! Continued from here, and I guess here: I actually started writing this post the other day, but quickly got side-tracked into a different post – after all, one can’t really talk about real assets without first taking on inflation! For reference, here’s a reprint of my investment allocation pie-chart:

So, Where’s The Bloody Inflation..?!

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baby boomers, banks, Bernanke, budget deficit, capital ratios, de-leveraging, debt monetization, Debt/GDP Ratio, ECB, Europe, European sovereign debt crisis, Fed, financial crisis, fiscal deficits, Flub-Med, GDP growth, Hunt brothers, income/dividend bubble, inflation, Japan, multiplier effect, Occupy Wall Street, politicians, quantitative easing, real assets, risk aversion, savings rate, stagflation, US, Volcker

I was beginning a new post in my recent Hitting the Century series (and here), and realized my next 3 investment allocations were to real assets – Natural Resources, Agri & Property. This v quickly got me thinking about inflation, enough to devote myself to this post instead:

Along the way, dear reader, you may have noticed my pronounced distaste for fiscal & monetary policy in the developed world. Particularly in the US... That’s not intended to be a US slap-down…and certainly not praise for Europe either! It’s simply a pretty inescapable conclusion if you compare the US & (the hard-core of) Europe over the past 4 decades. Jesus, I struggle to think of somebody with any real power in the US who truly gives a flying f**k about their accelerating debt burden, debt monetization, or the long-term external value of the dollar. In contrast, the ECB & certain Eurozone countries still actually exhibit a painful reluctance to take that road to monetary & fiscal oblivion – even in the face of a European sovereign debt crisis!