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Now Q3 2012 is over, it’s time to revisit The Great Irish Share Valuation Project. Here’s my H1 2012 performance post, for reference.

First, note there’s been 1 de-listing – we already had the heads-up on it last quarter: Cove Energy (COV:LN) was taken out for GBP 240p in cash per share by PTTEP (PTTEP:TB). A marvelous result for most shareholders, except for a few over-enthusiastic latecomers that bid the shares up to GBP 270p+ in the dying days of a Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB:LN) vs. PTTEP tussle. [I’ll continue to include Cove – at its final GBP 240p value – for performance purposes for the rest of the year].

Note: Q3 2012 YTD performance for each stock is TGISVP specific – that is, performance is measured from the specific date (in Q1) I set a target price for each stock. [Apologies if you’d prefer to see actual YTD performance for all stocks – but I suspect there’d be a high degree of overlap in the winners & losers, anyway].

Two exceptions to note: I only added Fastnet Oil & Gas (FAST:LN) (only listed in June, as a result of a RTO/Placing) and US Oil & Gas (USOP) (suspended since 2011, only re-listed on GXG in April) to TGISVP v recently. Therefore, in a similar fashion, I’m only tracking their post-write-up performance – not surprisingly, FAST has barely moved since. USOP, on the other hand, has already demonstrated (again) just how amazing it is – it’s managed an impressive 36% (dead) swan dive (a whopping $146 mio loss in market cap) in the past 2 1/2 weeks, since my post… Wow!

OK, I’ll admit there’s a bit of a tease coming – but isn’t that exactly what the media does to you all the time these days? 😉 Sorry, I’m just going to show you the Top YTD TGISVP Winners & Losers in this post..! Something interesting to mull over – and then I promise the real meat in my next post:

[i.e. The performance of the TGISVP Alpha & Beta portfolios..!]

TGISVP Q3 2012 YTD Top 10 Winners:

Providence Resources (PVR:LN) is top of the charts! To prove I don’t actually despise all junior resource stocks, note I tagged PVR in my Feb valuation as having decent upside potential! However, I certainly under-estimated its actual upside YTD, but of course there’s been plenty of fresh news-flow (about the Barryroe Oil Field) since then. Datalex (DLE:ID) has had a v well deserved rally, recognizing its growth potential & a likely takeout multiple, but is starting to look pretty stretched right now. Siteserv‘s gain is just a f**king travesty…

Aer Lingus (AERL:ID) would be loathe to admit it might actually be ‘enjoying‘ Ryanair’s (RYA:ID) attentions, in the form of another attempted takeover bid – this should run & run (again)..! Intrinsic value still looks significantly higher for AERL – recent hints/steps to distribute surplus cash to shareholders should help with potential value realization. However, I’d be none too surprised if any eventual distribution strategy/announcement is accompanied by some huge pension deficit concession to the unions (despite AERL’s repeated denials of any legal liability).

Prime Active Capital (PACC:ID) is a bit of an outlier. Its YTD gain appears to be more down to a volatile price & a wide spread, than any fundamental share price gain. Its news-flow/results certainly haven’t been promising recently, but it remains (vaguely) intriguing as it potentially has a much higher intrinsic value in a sale situation. Then again, who on earth wants to buy shares in an Irish company invested in cell phone stores located in places like Alabama & Pittsburgh…?!

The rest of the Top 10 (with the exception of CPL (CPL:ID), which still has more room to run) appear to reflect a continued flight/re-allocation to safety – in the form of some of Ireland’s major agri-businesses, and FBD Holdings (FBD:ID) (which I hold) with its now fully de-risked balance sheet.

TGISVP Q3 2012 YTD Top 10 Losers:

Like I said in my last post, isn’t it soooo much easier to guess the losers ahead of time..?! Yeah, some of the usual rubbish – here we have eight junior resource stock losers/suspects, a ridiculously over-indebted company (the usual O’Reilly legacy… ;-)), and an outright fraud/collapse…

Yeah, that sounds about right – case closed!

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