OK, dear readers, just a little post to keep track here… And to show I haven’t actually forgotten! I think I owe you some posts & emails at this point:
i) Q&A: Recently, I’ve been getting more emails from readers with questions. Most noticeably from new(er) investors looking for investing advice – always a pretty tough request! I suppose I’ve got 3 answers:
a) I’ll egotistically suggest a read back through my posts. Even within specific stock write-ups, I’ve never seen the need to stick (completely) to the subject – so Lord knows where & if I’ve buried some useful advice on investing, portfolio allocation, risk management, etc… That’s the beauty of a blog, and a good principle in life – do what you bloody please! OK, I do mean (somewhat) sensibly, of course 😉 [This reminds me: A categorization of my posts might be helpful!]
b) My 1st answer wasn’t meant as a cop-out – I’m always delighted to get emails & comments. Actually, web stats. suggest only a tiny % of readers ever engage in dialogue, which is a shame... I find replying to emails/comments inevitably requires (some) reflection & fact checking – always rewarding!
It’s also a reminder of the alternative – message board hell! Blogging tends to weed out the numpty chumps, leaving you with a great readership – thanks, folks! Rest assured, every email & reader is different – so I do read & answer every email as best I can…in the end!
c) What this might suggest is a proper Q&A post, esp. as the blog’s now passed the 1 yr anniversary mark. Doesn’t matter if you’re a new investor, an old hand, a fellow blogger, an employee/director of a company I’ve written about, etc. – and doesn’t matter what kind of question/topic:
Please send question(s) by email (wexboymail@yahoo.com), or comment – and I’ll put together the best of them in a hopefully interesting Q&A.
ii) Correlation…Schmorrelation!: OK, I think my TLI post held up my end of the bargain..! But how on earth can we determine if TLI was the best idea? Let me revisit the emails/comments you responded with & hopefully make a stab at a write-up of the best reader recommendation. And it’s not too late – if you have a negative/un-correlated stock that helps you sleep at night, please comment or email me in the next couple of days.
iii) Summer Doldrums…So, What’s Your Fave Investment?: I was seeking readers’ favourite investments with this post – time to look over them all, and get to a write-up of the best idea! Again, it’s not too late – if you’ve got a great stock burning you up, plse comment or email me.
iv) Hitting the Century – first & latest posts: Well, we all like new stock ideas, that where the rubber really hits the road! But, if I recall, asset allocation usually accounts for 70-90% of returns – not stock selection. I think it’s human nature to disagree with this – we all fancy we’re wonderful stock pickers. But return to 2008, and that notion’s like believing you’re the prettiest snowflake in Texas! Might be true, but a fat lot of f**king good it’s going to do you… This series isn’t meant to be about stock picking, it’s about the composition of my portfolio & the logic behind it – I’ll have a new post coming shortly.
v) My Catalyst series – first & last posts: I suggested in my last post, a summary might be useful – anybody, anybody?! Maybe, let me take another look….
vi) Argo – Escape from an Evil State!: Thank you, I know I owe a couple of Argo shareholders an email reply. The more we share/discuss shareholder perspective(s), the clearer the top priorities for Argo will be (share buyback, for example). If you’re an Argo Group Ltd. (ARGO:LN) shareholder, and you’ve read my letter and/or previous articles, please get in touch with me – thanks!
wexboymail@yahoo.com
Wexboy 
More evidence the ISEQ is dirt cheap. Hardly the investment opportunity of a lifetime like a few yrs ago but IRELAND IS STILL ON MEGA SALE. It amazes me there is so little media talk wrt to this cheapness.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-01/cleanest-dirty-shirt-or-3rd-most-expensive-equity-market-world
Hi Wexboy, keep up the great work!
I’m a fairly new investor in shares (trying to track my progress on a blog etc) I’m currently reading Joel Greenblatt – You can be a stock market genius. Not far in but he’s covered spin offs, risk arbitrage is next!
Question: Do you look for spin offs? I haven’t seen any posts here about them but Joel certainly thinks they’re a canny way for private investors to do a little digging for themselves and unearth profits.
Hi Shaun,
Yeah, great book – except for the title, not something you want to be seen reading on the train… My only complaint: Greenblatt really doesn’t highlight his approach is never going to suit most investors – I suspect that’s what motivated him to write his other book. I don’t doubt you can generate attractive returns with his approach (as he’s proved), but it’s incredibly time-consuming, pretty technical & very research intensive if you want to do it right – i.e. it’s a full time job.
I agree with everything he says about spin-offs, but I think he neglects to really highlight an important point. When you examine them, they never look that cheap – for example, operating margin may be at 10%, the company is priced as if it’s at 12%, but of course that might ultimately look cheap if management doubles operating margin to 20%. Therefore, you’re taking a leap of faith investing in them – however, there shd always be some fat to cut/incentives to claim, so even if co developments fall short, I wdn’t expect you’ll suffer too much on your investment. All this suggests putting in the work, and buying a selection of the best/diversified spin-offs, might be the best approach – rather than cherry-picking one or two & ending up disappointed (I don’t think there’s any easy way to detect/predict which individual co’s will be a roaring success).
Cheers,
Wexboy
Thanks, Matt. I hadn’t noticed an Ireland CAPE from Mebane before, but I see it now – nice! Well, a lot of it’s down to math – if earnings/market generally collapses, CAPEs look a lot more attractive v quickly..! I’d argue that an economy with generally rising long-term earnings & a low CAPE – a much tougher proposition! – is that much more attractive. Which just confirms again how attractive Russia is as a market (& Jim Rogers finally likes it for the first time ever!).
However, the stats & studies generally don’t lie – buying low CAPE markets, however they got there, seems a v reasonable macro approach. Of course, it does imply mean reversion & economic flexibility – so you always want to watch out for the exception: A secular/permanent step-change in a country’s circumstances, and/or an inability to adjust to changing circumstances. [Greece springs to my mind – regardless of debt developments, I think it’s a failed country anyway, as things stand] Of course, people are far too confident about choices/predictions, prob. better to just run with the numbers… 🙂
As regards Ireland, I’ve commented many times (most recently in my new FBD Holdings post) that I’m not that enthused about the Ireland funds on offer – not much help if you’re not/don’t want to be a stock-picker! That’s probably what motivated my recent post – I hold/like other Irish shares, but FBD Holdings perhaps offers the perfect domestic exposure & remains a cheap/defensive stock:
https://wexboy.wordpress.com/2012/11/28/fbd-holdings-cor-blimey-mate/
Hi, just across this website. Nice work.
I curious if you have any views on CAPE as it related to the Irish stock market. According to the likes of Mebane Faber/Russell Napier / Economist on this overall market valuation is less than 5 for Ireland. The longterm compounded returns, in other markets from such valuations, have beens 15%+ .
I put it, that the investment opportunity of a life time is simply buying the ISEQ, hold longterm. On the high probability long term basis that Ireland will recover eventually. Thoughts?
Matt oGara