Alternative Asset Opportunities, Argo Group, Asta Funding, Avangardco, correlation, EIIB, FBD Holdings, Fortress Investment Group, JPMorgan Russian Securities, KWG Kommunale Wohnen, Livermore Investments, Margin of Safety, Petroneft Resources, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, Richland Resources, shareholder activism, Sirius Real Estate, Total Produce, Trinity Biotech, Universe Group, Vietnam Opportunity Fund
There was a gratifyingly large surge of page views yesterday checking in on my 2012 Portfolio Performance! I’m suitably humbled by the attention – gulp, makes me wonder what challenges 2013 will throw up?! Hopefully the blog’s sparked a few decent ideas & stock picks for you in the last year or so, and you’re pleased with the progress of your own portfolio in 2012. It’s certainly been rewarding for me – most obviously in terms of improving my investment focus & analysis, but also in terms of the constant stream of questions, challenges, feedback, gossip, ideas, etc. from blog readers.
As a result, I now feel somewhat honour-bound to cough up some kind of 2013 Portfolio. I should immediately flag that some of you may find this a bit of a cop-out… 😦 But, in my defence, let me say:
– The start of a new year really means little to me, I don’t suddenly discover I have whole new batches of stocks to buy & sell!
– I rarely write about stocks I don’t own. This is pretty deliberate – my intention was never to simply fill up blank space with an idea each day/each week. I think people can really only judge your level of analysis & conviction against whether you actually own a stock – and, of course, by how much stock you own!
– I also don’t write about stocks I track, or discard, very much. First, mostly because they’re far too numerous! Second, I’m not sure I’d always manage a proper (in-depth) write-up about such stock(s). And third, I’ve sometimes tracked stocks every single day for literally years on end before buying – how often do you want to hear about them?!
– As regards discards, I agree there’s perhaps some valuable insight to offer by elucidating the reasons for rejection. But in reality, the vast majority of stocks are fairly unobjectionable – they’re just not cheap or interesting enough for me to buy. I suspect writing about reams of these stocks would quickly become pretty repetitive for readers.
– Of course, then there’s a whole other category of stock duds & discards… Occasionally, they can be highly entertaining to write about, but as regards investing – well, I think we’re all smart enough to just leave ’em to the numpty-chumps! Overall, I think I’m very specific about what I’m looking for, and what I like & dislike, in the stocks I buy – hopefully, in the process, this also tells you what I’m seeking to avoid.
– I guess I mostly like to focus on the ingredients (investment themes, interesting sectors, economic perspectives), and the sausage itself (stock write-ups). I prefer to skip the worst parts of the messy sausage-making here… 😉
– At the end of the day, the blog’s mostly designed to be a live record of a portfolio, which keeps me a lot more honest with myself & with you. This means the blog may become more or less interesting to you, at times, depending on your perspective. Because real life investing is somewhat paradoxical – it’s a slow, but often unpredictable, business! Sometimes the best investing consists of doing nothing, sometimes it makes perfect sense to just keep buying more old ideas, and then occasionally new stock ideas/buys will actually make the most sense.
– Finally, activism is an intriguing alternative! It really encourages one to focus/speculate more on the possibilities of existing stock ideas, rather than the possibilities of new stock ideas.
So, I’m sure you know what’s coming:
Yes, my favourite stock ideas for 2013 are, of course, all of the favourite/high conviction stocks I still own from 2012! Which makes perfect sense… Don’t worry, I’m sure there will be a few new ideas coming along also! 😉 Meanwhile, today, I thought it would be useful to revisit a complete list of all stocks I’ve written-up/disclosed my ownership. I’ll include a link to each company’s website, (hopefully) my first & most recent posts (and the Search box may throw up more posts, of course), and my current portfolio stake (as of yr-end).
[btw Obviously there’s some level of correlation between my stake size, my conviction level & my upside potential for a stock. But this is definitely not a hard & fast rule, a stake may simply be small because I’m still building it, or it’s more speculative, and/or it’s highly correlated with other pre-existing holdings, etc. Equally, a large stake size may (to some extent) simply reflect the fact that it’s low risk (cash rich/debt light), or it has a low correlation with the market/other holdings, or it’s enjoyed significant appreciation, and/or it has a near/medium term catalyst, etc. These days, I’d happily accept much more limited upside potential, in return for greater financial stability and/or lower correlation(s).]
I hope this offers you a fresh introduction, or a reminder, of some good ideas to investigate further/again, whether you’re a new or long-standing reader.
|Alternative Asset Opportunities (TLI:LN)|
– First/last post, 13.1%
– First posts, last post, 8.0%
|Total Produce (TOT:ID)|
– First post, last post, 7.6%
|KWG Kommunale Wohnen (BIW:GR)|
– First/last post, 6.1%
|Trinity Biotech (TRIB:US)|
– First post, last post, 5.7%
|FBD Holdings (FBD:ID)|
– First post, last post, 5.6%
|Argo Group (ARGO:LN)|
– First posts, last post, 5.3%
|Fortress Investment Group (FIG:US)|
– First post, last post, 5.0%
|Asta Funding (ASFI:US)|
– First post, last post, 3.7%
|JPMorgan Russian Secs. (JRS:LN)|
– First/last posts, 3.6%
– First post, last post, 3.2%
|Vina. Vietnam Opp Fd (VOF:LN)|
– First/last post, 2.9%
|Sirius Real Estate (SRE:LN)|
– First post, last post, 2.9%
|Universe Group (UNG:LN)|
– First post, last post, 2.3%
|Livermore Investments (LIV:LN)|
– First post, last posts, 2.3%
|Richland Resources (RLD:LN)|
– First posts, last post, 0.8%
|Petroneft Resources (PTR:LN)|
– First post, last post, 0.6%
Good luck in 2013!
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T B said:
Nice work Wexboy, TLI and VOF were the only ones we had in common. Did you have a look at SPL? Looks like we will get the minutes released over the next few days so watch it like a hawk.
If you read this before markets open tomorrow, also note the nav update on SIGG after the close (to 93.5p). One of these days, the market will react to a rising NAV throwing off lots of cash (31p cash by August). The price is 54p….
Thks, Tina. I’m not sure SPL’s discount to cash matters, clearly the money will get spent, so the challenge will be to assess how successful/timely their project will be, and then the kind of returns it can produce. But it’s still on my to-do list!
Yes, SIGG’s one of a no. of distressed assets stock I track. I’m surprised the discount has continued to widen. But it’s somewhat exceptional/alarming to see a wind-down like this unable to put a likely liquidity date on almost two-thirds of its fund holdings. I haven’t seen that before..! Then again, these funds may be in a good position to increase NAV, and there appears to be some possibility of unrealized gains within the overall portfolio. This will probably delist at some point also.
Modeling a few different timelines & NAV scenarios to determine what kind of average/min/max IRR might be expected is prob the best approach here.
T B said:
Yes sigg is unusual in that it was supposed to start winding up in 2013 but shareholders voted for a wind up a year ago. This is relevant because certain investments are intentionally set up to wind up/ pay out in 2014 and that is why liquidity as technically unknown right now. Also property investment are deemed to be completely illiquid but these were all designed to come into fruition over the coming years and i think previous management were underplaying their chances to sell them.In short, expected upside surprises here and indeed I see the liquidity profile ticked up in the December report to 33p back by autumn. The new management are heavily incentivised to return 68p+ in two years.
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