Thanks readers, the comments (here & elsewhere) and emails are piling up – keep ’em coming. Certainly seems like people would like to see another year of The Great Irish Share Valuation Project! It’s tempting – the Irish market’s definitely been good to me in the past two years (despite my regular warnings about home bias). Um, except for those poor little junior resource stocks, of course! Fortunately, I’ve studiously ignored them as potential portfolio picks – well, except for my dog food stock, Petroneft Resources (PTR:LN). Jesus, after the walloping most of these stocks have received over the past couple of years (despite QE!), could they now be…ulp, cheap?!
Now now, let’s not get too excited there! That wasn’t a teaser question – I don’t actually know the bloody answer, at this point. Well, maybe I do…sad to say with some of those companies, but the notion they’ll ever prove a good investment is about as likely as US Oil & Gas (USOP:G4) ever producing a commercial drop of
Perrier oil. But maybe there’s now a diamond or two to be found in the rough – imagine I find ’em & write ’em up, jeez think of all the new readers I’d attract. Golly, I’d be the bloody one-eyed king in the land of the muppets! Aaah, but then I’d probably have to give up the sarcasm…I mean, if muppets can’t smell bullshit, they surely won’t detect wit.
And if I do go ahead with TGISVP, it will definitely be a project for February onwards – I expect to be kept busy for the next couple of weeks (hopefully leading to an interesting post, or two). On the other hand, with two years of posts under my belt now, I’d hope to progress a little faster analyzing the current universe of Irish stocks. Actually, I note my analyses were more quantitative last year (vs. 2012) – I suspect that trend would become even more pronounced with a TGISVP 2014. Which makes sense: I certainly don’t consider myself a quantitative value investor, but if the numbers don’t stack up there’s little chance of me going gaga over a company – no matter how good its business model, or its upside potential.
Anyway, it was never my intention to produce a buy/sell guide to Irish stocks. In the end, I’m happy if readers: i) are motivated to research a few interesting stocks for themselves (or to bail out of a total no-hoper stock, or two), and ii) learn something useful from the variety of valuation perspectives & techniques I employ.
I mention the latter, as I’ve been delighted at the number of readers who’ve highlighted their specific appreciation of the valuation component of TGISVP. That would actually encourage me to focus more on the nuts & bolts of each stock valuation. Of course, the figures & formulas have always been there (in my attached TGISVP files), but putting them front & centre in every post would now make sense. In fact, that ties nicely with my overall intent – to encourage readers to research a stock’s history, management & business themselves, but to also have my valuation to hand as a straw man. Which they can choose to endorse, or choose to knock it down – but that demands they revise or replace it with their own (very specific) valuation.
So, what do you think? All comments & suggestions greatly appreciated.
And while I’m at it – one way, or another – I’d like to hear about any Irish stocks I may have missed last year (reference the Excel file below). On my own to-do list, I’ve already got another 3 new Irish IPOs (from Q4-2013) to look over, and I recently discovered a (possibly) cheap Irish property company (relax, anxious Irish REIT investors, it’s UK-focused!). But I’m always wondering if there’s more companies out there I simply haven’t come across before.
So, let me ponder the Project just a little longer… 🙂 Meanwhile, in the absence of fresh valuations, I’ll update my last TGISVP file with the latest share prices (as of Jan-17th). You may find it useful to see a snapshot, as things stand, of the Top Potential Winners & Losers. Of course, it goes without saying – but I’ll say it anyway, this little exercise obviously comes with a giant health warning!
I didn’t refresh any valuations in the second half of the year – except for adding 3 new Irish IPOs (Green REIT (GRN:ID), Keywords Studios (KWS:LN) & Ardmore Shipping (ASC:US)), updating my Total Produce (TOT:ID) valuation, and adjusting for the EUR 0.495 special dividend paid out by TVC Holdings (TVCH:ID). Otherwise, remember these valuations are anywhere from 4-12 mths old. Now, much of the time, one would usually expect intrinsic values to change pretty slowly over the course of a year – after all, most news is really just noise, when you boil it down. [As I’ve said before, if you find the valuations (of your holdings) are jumping all ’round the place at the drop of a hat….it’s probably you, not them! That’s a
good bad sign your judgement’s probably being swayed too easily by investor sentiment, and your own fear & greed]. But please don’t assume no change here, with any of these stocks – results and news flow can occasionally (& very suddenly) change intrinsic values quite radically.
[To illustrate, I’ll highlight two obvious examples: First, Andor Technology (AND:LN) is now being taken over by Oxford Instruments (OXIG:LN) – at a hefty premium to my last valuation. And second, Independent News & Media (INM:ID) (listed in one of the tables below) has completed its restructuring – clearly, my zero valuation now looks like a rather silly (binary!) choice to have made. But I’m not going to scramble & re-do my valuation right here on the fly… Though I have to say, the recent share price surge (to EUR 0.1799) doesn’t look right either – check out their latest revenue trends!?]
These tables (& file) are simply provided as interim food for thought – stocks to ponder, to update, and to possibly research more thoroughly. I’ll be doing the same for my own portfolio. Rest assured, if I go ahead with The Great Irish Share Valuation Project for 2014, I’ll definitely be approaching all stocks & valuations afresh. For some stocks, this may end up as a simple increment to their 2013 valuations, but for others it’s sure to throw up some unexpected surprises…
So here’s the latest TGISVP Top Dozen:
[NB: I own the three bolded stocks – PTR, DCP & TOT].
And here’s the TGISVP Bum Dozen:
And finally, all stocks are included in this file: