alpha, Alpha Portfolio, Beta Portfolio, Clontarf Energy, Continental Farmers Group, DCC, Elan Corp, Fastnet Oil & Gas, Glanbia, Greencore Group, Irish shares, Irish value investing, ISEQ, junior resource stocks, muppets, Petroceltic International, Petroneft Resources, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, Smart Alpha Portfolio, Smart Beta Portfolio, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, US Oil & Gas
Time to wrap up the mid-year review(s) – let’s finish with The Great Irish Share Valuation Project. To recap:
– A total of 73 Irish companies are included this year (same as last year – but US Oil & Gas (USOP:G4) & Fastnet Oil & Gas (FAST:LN) were subsequently listed, so I added them later in the year, increasing the 2012 total to 75).
– Each company’s been individually reviewed & valued, some time between Jan & May, and I’ve kept a record of all share prices (at time of evaluation) & price targets to properly assess performance.
– I’ve made no subsequent changes to the file, except: i) to adjust for DCC (DCC:LN) migrating to a London-only listing & for Petroceltic International (PCI:LN) consolidating its shares 1 for 25, and ii) Continental Farmers Group (CFGP:LN) will continue to be included at its GBP 36p takeover price (the Saudi bail-out came in the nick of time, just before the cash ran dry!).
– Since my TGISVP review/valuation phase was spread over 4 1/2 mths, we need to adjust our benchmark (the ISEQ) accordingly. Like last year, I’ll take the mid-point (in terms of companies valued) of this phase – i.e. Feb-25th – as the most appropriate start date for the index.
I’m bemused to see I’ve apparently become more bearish this year! Last year, I was bullish on 48% of all stocks, while this year that’s now dropped to 40%. But consider the unique nature of TGISVP, which includes an extraordinary selection of junior resource stocks, complete with assorted incompetents & cowboys! Not surprisingly, I’m bearish on pretty much all these rubbish stocks – so stripping ’em out, it’s fair to say I remain bullish on Irish stocks. 🙂 OK, perhaps a little less so today, but with the ISEQ up +17.1% in 2012 & another +16.7% this year, that’s no great shocker..!