2014 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part VIII)

Tags

Ardmore Shipping, Chiquita Brands International, CRH, Fyffes, IMC Exploration Group, Irish shares, Irish Stock Exchange, Irish value investing, ISEQ, Kenmare Resources, Keywords Studios, Mincon Group, Paddy Power, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, US Oil & Gas

Continued from here:

[NB: Worth revisiting Part I if you’re a new reader, or you’d like a refresher on TGISVP & my approach to the whole project.]

Company:   Fyffes

Prior Post(s):   2012 & 2013

Ticker:  FFY:ID

Price:   EUR 1.27

Seems like I picked the wrong horse, choosing Total Produce (TOT:ID) instead of Fyffes…but I can live with that, you can’t pick ’em all & TOT’s been good to me. But maybe not good enough – because FFY popped 46% in early March, on the news of a definitive merger with Chiquita Brands International (CQB:US). [CQB also closed 11% higher on the day – since then, on average, each stock’s held onto its gains]. I think we can comfortably assume the deal will go ahead (unscathed):  Shareholders love it, the DoJ doesn’t give a damn what happens in Europe, and the Irish Competition Authority is presumably asleep at the wheel, as per usual. [A study confirmed the ICA has a rejection rate of just 0.7%!] Anyway, what deal dissenter would relish the possibility of mercenaries dropping in for tea & a little chat..?! 😉 At this point, let’s just rely on the merger terms for our valuation:

USD 12.25 CQB Share Price * 0.1567 CQB Share (per 1 FFY Share) / 1.3841 EUR/USD = EUR 1.39

Fyffes is marginally undervalued – it offers an attractive arbitrage for the big boys, or a cheap entry price if you’re interested in going long the new ChiquitaFyffes.

Price Target:   EUR 1.39

Upside/(Downside):   9%

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The Great Irish Share Valuation Project – Some New Arrivals

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Ardmore Shipping, ASC, Baltic Dry Index, Green REIT, GRN, IPO, Irish shares, Irish value investing, Keywords Studios, KWS, shipping sector, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, US Oil & Gas, video game sector

I finished the valuation phase of The Great Irish Share Valuation Project in May, but we’ve actually seen a grand total of three Irish companies IPO since then. Seriously, that’s a bit of a bloody record – one of them even listed on the ISE! I’ll be taking a closer look at each company in this post, and including them in TGISVP for the rest of the year.

[btw I can’t help but remember it was about this time last year I first sat down, took a look at US Oil & Gas (USOP:G4), and promptly fell off my chair. It was a bit like meeting Paul Calf for the first time – I laughed, I cried, I was horrified… I ended up predicting an ultimate TGISVP price target of 3.5p (a 99% price decline). Not surprisingly, this was greeted with outrage  – with multiple muppets going out of their way to explain, in great detail, why I didn’t have a f***ing clue! Oh, how right they were, and how wrong I was – USOP’s now trading at 32p, a share price decline of only 95%..! Clearly an apology is warranted – perhaps I should suck up my pride & make it?! ;-)]

Well, maybe I can’t promise you anything as exciting as USOP, but let’s see if we have any bargains or disasters on our hands: