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Wexboy

Tag Archives: Argentina

2012 – Aaah, How Was It For You..?

03 Thursday Jan 2013

Posted by Wexboy in Uncategorized

≈ 22 Comments

Tags

alternative assets, Argentina, Argo Group, Avangardco, Baker's Dozen, diversification, dividend yield, EIIB, frontier markets, hedge funds, home bias investing, Irish shares, JPMorgan Russian Securities, NAV discount, Petroneft Resources, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, Renaissance Russia Infrastructure Equities, Richland Resources, Russia, Sirius Real Estate

[Here’s my last performance report, for reference].

OK, just in time, my performance analysis got a bit more sophisticated. It now includes dividends, and is calculated on a weighted average gain basis, so now the impact of larger & smaller portfolio stakes is recognized. I think I’ve tracked any increase/decrease in portfolio holdings pretty well during the year, via Twitter (so plse sign up as a follower!) & blog comments. [No point in having interested readers if I don’t post such relevant info on a timely basis]. This allowed me to calculate an average portfolio stake for each holding, which I think is the best metric to use.

I did, however, stick with my original yr-end 2011 or 2012 write-up prices as a cost base – I didn’t want to drive myself crazy calculating average net purchase prices! However, I know I’ve subsequently added to portfolio holdings at higher & lower prices, so I think that pretty much cancels itself out. It also means I’ve omitted partial profits harvested on certain holdings, so my total return may be marginally understated.

Overall, eyeballing my respective analyses, dividends & portfolio weightings have in total (on a pretty even split) added about 2-3% to my annual return. The pretty low contribution from dividends may surprise you, but don’t forget I’m none too enamoured with them… See here, here & here. As far as I’m concerned, if you’re impressed enough with a stock’s valuation & prospects to actually buy it, surely you’d prefer to see it compound its earnings?! Only a third of my holdings pay a dividend.

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Nope, Not Going Any Further with that Drag Queen..!

17 Tuesday Apr 2012

Posted by Wexboy in Uncategorized

≈ 4 Comments

Tags

agri-business, Argentina, Boy's Own, CDS spreads, Cresud, Cristina Kirchner, drag queens, Falkland Islands, farmland, intrinsic value, Margin of Safety, nationalization, Repsol YPF, Sell in May, spring cleaning, Trinity Biotech, YPF

Remember that twisted Boy’s Own holiday you took with your mates a couple of years back? You know the one, when you ended up in that very dodgy club? Yes, yes, I know it’s all a little hazy. I mean the club where the performers turned out to have a little extra..?!

Remember that blonde & the brunette?! No, not like that, I really think it was more like this. Ah yes, it’s all coming back to you now… So, do you remember when that drag queen sat in your lap, wriggled and muttered something dirty to you? And you were terrified…but strangely aroused also? Yes, shameful, I know – now stop dreaming about it.

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Cresud (CRESY:US), Part II

10 Thursday Nov 2011

Posted by Wexboy in Uncategorized

≈ Comments Off on Cresud (CRESY:US), Part II

Tags

Argentina, BrasilAgro, Cresud, Debt/Assets Ratio, Elsztain, farmland, IRSA, Margin of Safety, Owner-Operator, Price/Book, value investing

Cresud (CRESY:US)

Mkt Price:  USD 11.30

Mkt Cap:  USD 561.1 mio

Debt/Assets %:  12.7%

P/B:  0.35  (adjusted)

Fair Value:  USD 32.66

Upside Potential:  189%

Continuing from my previous Cresud post:  CRESY has a tough B/S to tackle. First, it’s denominated in Argentinean Peso (4.2620 ARS per USD), a fairly stable…but potentially very unstable currency, second, it wildly understates many assets which are carried at cost, and third, it consolidates listed entities (IRSA (IRSA:AR), and also BrasilAgro (AGRO3:BZ) going forward) in which Cresud has a controlling and/or majority stake. My approach to dealing with this is to construct a B/S and Fair Value on a ‘look-through’ basis. There are a number of components to work through:

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Cresud (CRESY:US) & Irish Farmland

10 Thursday Nov 2011

Posted by Wexboy in Uncategorized

≈ 2 Comments

Tags

Argentina, BrasilAgro, Cresud, farmland, Ireland, IRSA, pampas

Cresud (CRESY:US)

Mkt Price:  USD 11.28

Mkt Cap:  USD 560.1 mio

Cresud is a leading Argentine agricultural company engaged in the production of basic agricultural commodities. It also has a growing presence in the Brazilian agricultural sector through its investment in BrasilAgro (AGRO3:BZ). Cresud is currently involved in a range of activities including crop production, beef cattle raising and milk production. The Company’s business model, which it seeks to roll out abroad, taking into account the specific conditions of each country, focuses on the acquisition, development and exploitation of properties having attractive prospects for agricultural production and/or value appreciation and the selective disposition of such properties where appreciation has been realized. Additionally, a majority of Cresud’s current market value is actually represented by the quoted value of its controlling stake in IRSA (IRSA:AR), Argentina’s leading listed real estate company. Cresud’s shares are listed on the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange and its ADSs are listed on NASDAQ.

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