Fortress – On the Ramparts

Tags

% of AUM, alternative assets, asset managers, Blackstone, FIG, Fortress Investment Group, Gagfah, hedge funds, KKR, Logan Circle Partners, Newcastle Investment Corp, private equity funds, Springleaf Holdings

When I posted my first writeup on Fortress Investment Group (FIG:US), it was May-2012 & the share price was only $3.11. Buying the shares (& writing about them), I felt like I was in the thick of battle – trying to defend a breached portcullis in a last-ditch & perhaps doomed effort! [In hindsight, the more revulsion I hear about a post/company, the more promising the investment opportunity might actually be…] But the situation certainly looked much safer by December (with the share price at $4.38), when I posted a follow-up piece: Another Assault on Fortress. And now here we are, standing proud & tall on the ramparts, masters of all before us – the share price is $8.17, and even traded up to $9.00+ recently!

But ramparts aren’t about the view, they’re designed for spotting danger. My last fair value price target was $8.84 per share – we need to do a fresh survey. How much upside potential is now on offer? And more importantly, has our margin of safety been eroded to unacceptable levels?

OK, let’s do a quick wrap-up of 2012, and then take a closer look at progress YTD-2013. I plan to stick with roughly the same valuation methodology, so I definitely recommend you revisit my last two posts (linked above). However, it would be handy to reproduce this table here:

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Titanium Asset Management…What A Steal?!

Tags

appraisal rights, asset managers, AUM, Bob Brooks, Clal Finance, Delaware law, fixed income, TAM, TAM:LN, Titanium Asset Management

My asset manager addiction knows no bounds – here’s another I own:

Titanium Asset Management (TAM:LN)

Titanium was a SPAC IPO that raised $120 million (20 mio shares at $6.00) in Jun-2007. Aah, remember the glory days..!? The investment objective was to purchase a number of asset managers – and in little more than a year, facing into the worst financial crisis since the ’30s, they acquired four companies: Wood Asset Management, Boyd Watterson, Sovereign Holdings (since absorbed into Boyd), and National Investment Services. Well…I think you can guess the rest!

Actually, I’ve never really sat down & figured out if they overpaid, experienced a client/AUM exodus, suffered integration issues, lost key personnel, etc. Maybe it was all these & more! But if we fast-forward, the legacy of those acquisitions lives on – here’s a brief summary of the last five years:

Ewww, kinda nasty…

Portfolio Allocation (XV – Emerging & Frontier Markets)

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asset managers, BRICS, closed-end funds, developed markets, dollar-cost averaging, emerging markets, frontier markets, Hong Kong, Howard Marks, NAV discount, NAV premium, portfolio allocation, reductio ad absurdum, Trading Economics

Continued from here. [And most definitely, this is the last post in the series!]

This might actually be the perfect time to write about emerging markets – the developed market douche-bags (DMDs) are out in force again, warning us emerging markets are tanking… It’s a common refrain: a) developed markets are in recession, emerging markets must tank, b) developed markets are showing zero growth, emerging markets must tank, c) developed market growth’s bouncing back & rates are rising, emerging markets must tank, and d) well…emerging markets simply must tank!

2013 may turn out to be even sillier. So far, most of the year’s been spent denigrating – nay, reviling – emerging markets, simply because developed stock markets have done so well. Of course, the sub-text here is ‘why don’t you just forget/sell emerging markets (forever) & just stick to developed markets?!‘ Christ on a rope, that’s like handing out bloody gold medals to whoever took the most steroids… And now developed markets have caught a dose of the colly-wobbles in the past week or two – again, DMDs would have you believe it’s another good reason to sell emerging markets. Yes folks, we’ve finally reached the point of reductio ad absurdum:

i) Developed markets go up – sell emerging markets,

ii) Developed markets go down – sell emerging markets, and

iii) Don’t forget i) & ii).

UK Asset Managers & Argo Group

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% of AUM, Andreas Rialas, ARGO, Argo Group, asset managers, Charlemagne Capital, Dolphin Capital Investors, Ex-Cash Ratios, F&C Asset Management, Impax Asset Management Group, Investor Relations, Kyriakos Rialas, Miton Group, NAV discount, The Argo Fund, Third Point, UK

In April, I took a closer look at the universe of UK-listed asset managers. A key piece of research was a (relatively) simple analysis which focused on financial stability & market valuation – this study also offered a useful peer comparison with Argo Group Ltd. (ARGO:LN) (& see this recent post).

Frankly, the numbers (plus the rest of this post) speak for themselves, but let’s have a taste of the main highlights:

Name	Ticker		Net Cash/Inv as % of Mkt Cap
F&C Asset Management	FCAM		(23)%
Liontrust Asset Management	LIO		3.9%
Henderson Group	HGG		6.2%
Aberdeen Asset Management	ADN		7.9%
Jupiter Fund Management	JUP		8.4%
Polar Capital Holdings	POLR		16%
Ashmore Group	ASHM		18%
Miton Group	MGR		26%
Schroders	SDR		34%
Man Group	EMG		55%
Impax Asset Management Group	IPX		59%
Charlemagne Capital	CCAP		64%
Median			17%
Argo Group	ARGO		175%

It’s encouraging to see the entire sector now enjoys robust financial health. Only F&C Asset Management (FCAM:LN) is in a net debt position – all other companies sport net cash & investments on their balance sheets. But it’s also clear this healthy financial position is not the key driver of market valuations – for Argo’s peer group, net cash/investments only represents a median 17% of market cap. On the other hand, Argo’s $23.6 mio of net cash/investments amounts to a whopping 175% of its market cap.

Portfolio Allocation (XIII – Alternative Investments)

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activist investors, Alternative Asset Opportunities, alternative assets, Argo Group, asset managers, catalyst, CLOs, correlation, distressed investing, Event Driven, hedge fund seeding, hedge funds, hedge funds of funds, Livermore Investments Group, mortgage hedge funds, portfolio allocation, proprietary trading, Raven Russia, Tetragon Financial Group, thematic investing, volatility

Continued from here.

For now obscure reasons, this series was originally called ‘Hitting the Century‘. At this point, I’ve bowed to the inevitable & given it a more sensible name. It’s still a v leisurely stroll through the topic of portfolio allocation. I usually touch on stocks I actually own quite briefly, as the main objective is to expand on the logic (& attractions) of my specific portfolio allocation. Also, since my approach to investing is better described as thematic rather than (say) geographic, I generally highlight a selection of stocks which may exploit particular theme(s). As a reminder, here’s the allocation pie-chart I’ve used for the series:

Hedge (7%):

Hedge funds were a far larger component of my portfolio. This reflected a gradual migration over the years from open-end funds (many moons ago), to closed-end funds & investment trusts/companies, and finally into hedge funds. This was accompanied by an increasing reluctance to delegate my investing & investments. [Which may surprise you, as investment companies still play a significant role in my portfolio. However, this tends to now reflect my delegation of a specific/specialist investment theme – or simply the selection of a fund itself as an attractive investment, due to the presence of a large discount/catalyst/etc.]. Hedge funds, however, appeared to potentially offer the magic combination of lower volatility/correlation & better long-term returns. Sure, maybe they’d under-perform a bull market, but who cared – they simply ignored down markets, right?!

EIIB…Ex-Bank – Love It!

Tags

Arab Spring, asset managers, AUM, banks, de-leveraging, DiamondCorp, EIIB, European Islamic Investment Bank, frontier markets, GCC countries, HBG Holdings, inflation, Islamic finance, John Burbank, MENA, NAV discount, oil, Rasmala Holdings, real assets, Saudi Arabia, Sharia'a, TBTF, Zak Hydari

I have a long-standing aversion to banks. To me, they represent the perfect collision of two really bad ideas:

i) Regular investment in bonds & loans – a strategy offering little prospect of capital gain, but which will (quite often) attempt to wipe out your capital. And the paltry yield you earn offers little compensation. I’ve never understood how people ever find this ridiculously biased risk/reward proposition attractive.

ii) The answer lies in leverage, I guess… Another terrible idea, but this is the incredible solution people usually seize upon to juice low returns. And it usually works just long enough for everybody to forget how savagely leverage can impact liquidity & solvency, when things take an inevitable turn for the worse.

Banks, of course, take this bad marriage to its ultimate & ludicrous extremity. [And require even more leverage to overcome the drag of their cost:income ratios]. But consider the private & public incentives – why wouldn’t they?! When times are good, leverage multiplies profits…which multiplies bonuses! And leverage makes it far easier to reach that ideal bank status: TBTF, where the taxpayer’s forced to pay for your mistakes (& bonuses).

Hitting The Century (XI – Distressed)

Tags

alternative assets, Argo Group, asset managers, bankruptcy, BDCs, business development companies, Colony Financial, de-leveraging, distressed assets, distressed consumers, distressed investing, Fortress Investment Group, income/dividend bubble, JZ Capital Partners, litigation funding, private equity funds

In my last post, I briefly highlighted some difficulties a private investor might face with classic distressed debt investing. Recognizing these limitations, I usually prefer to stick with distressed debt asset managers & investment vehicles. However, there’s many other firms in orbit around this opportunity. Even better, my definition of distressed investing stretches to include what I call the distressed consumer. Consider it exploitation of the poor, if you wish – but the real bonanza is actually much more equal opportunity. To be blunt, it’s really about the exploitation of the (financially) stupid… And stupidity’s an enduring human frailty to bet on, despite the frequent & pointless efforts of politicians to legislate it away.

Let’s begin with the business end of things:

Picture you’re an ailing company whose business & finances are beginning to seize up. You’ve executed on most of the usual cost-control & cashflow measures already, but you still need more juice… Your book of receivables might yield some quick cash – Intrum Justitia (IJ:SS) can help. PRGX Global (PRGX:US) may unearth new and unexpected savings, waste & fraud for you. [PRGX is now expanding into US healthcare. Considering the unconscionable levels of fraud, waste & over-billing in that industry, this could offer them a huge new growth opportunity]. You might have been pinning your hopes on launching/winning a crucial lawsuit, but now you can’t afford the legal expense & uncertainty – Burford Capital (BUR:LN), Juridica Investments (JIL:LN) & IMF Australia (IMF:AU) can lower your risk & provide the necessary funding. Maybe you should also start selling anything that isn’t nailed down – call Ritchie Bros Auctioneers (RBA:CN).

Argo Group – Awaiting Results

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% of AUM, alternative assets, Andreas Rialas, AREO, ARGO, Argo Group, Argo Real Estate Opportunities Fund, asset managers, distressed assets, distressed investing, emerging markets, European sovereign debt crisis, Expected Value, intrinsic value, Kyriakos Rialas, Price/Cash, share buyback, shareholder activism, tender offer, The Argo Fund

Argo Group’s (ARGO:LN) Final Results should be released shortly (I’ll try confirm the exact date). In my most recent Argo posts, I published two letters I’ve sent to Kyriakos & Andreas Rialas (CEO & CIO, respectively). I encourage you to review both letters before continuing:

Here’s the first letter (from Nov-2012)

Argo’s share price rallied +6.2% in the following week.

And the second letter (from Dec-2012)

This was sent on behalf of myself, Guy Thomas & some other (smaller) shareholders, representing an aggregate 5% shareholding in Argo. The letter focused on a single specific shareholder distribution proposal. ARGO subsequently rallied +6.5% (in the following week). [In fact, the share price is now up an impressive +36% since my November letter. Despite the rally, I believe Argo remains just as compelling an investment proposition – I currently have a 5.4% portfolio stake].

My recommendations & proposal require little (further) explanation, and I expect shareholders will enthusiastically support all efforts to realize & enhance Argo’s intrinsic value. But I will revisit them in the context of an upcoming results preview – plenty of current & prospective shareholders have emailed me about Argo, so I hope you’ll find this useful. Let’s first consider Argo’s existing funds:

Tetragon – Ready To Be A Star

Tags

alternative assets, asset managers, CLOs, hedge fund seeding, Leon Cooperman, leveraged loans, Paddy Dear, Polygon, Reade Griffith, residual equity tranches, Tetragon Financial Group, TFG

Continued from here.

The ultra-quick recap:  Leveraged loans avoid most interest-rate price risk & enjoy better (default) recoveries than junk bonds, while CLOs offer diversification & loss mitigation, plus varying levels of tranche risk. These defensive attributes, coupled with current CLO yield spreads, may offer the best credit opportunity for 2013.

I like that risk/reward profile, but honestly, current yields & potential returns from leveraged loans/most CLO tranches don’t offer the level of return I’m seeking. Yes, you know where this is going… I want to take those defensive attributes & re-invest them into a more aggressive investment – residual equity tranches!

Time now for a proper introduction:  Tetragon Financial Group (TFG:NA)

Tetragon IPO’d at $10 in 2007, as an Amsterdam listed closed-end investment company, primarily investing in US CLO residual equity tranches. Some funds & business development companies (BDCs) have recently added CLO equity exposure, but TFG’s one of the few pure plays out there. It’s managed by Tetragon Financial Management (TFM), which is controlled by the founders of Polygon Global Partners. Um, let’s just dive straight into the bad stuff…

Another Assault on Fortress

Tags

% of AUM, alternative assets, asset managers, dry powder, Ex-Cash Ratios, FIG, Fortress Investment Group, high dividend yield, incentive fees, Logan Circle Partners, Price/Cash, RailAmerica, share buyback

In May, I published a series on alternative asset managers, which culminated in a write-up of my latest purchase (at the time), Fortress Investment Group (FIG:US). Based on its net cash/investments per share, plus a fund management valuation of 6.3% * $46.4 bio of Assets under Management (AUM), I pegged FIG at a Fair Value of $7.80 per share. Based on FIG’s $3.11 share price at that point, this offered substantial Upside Potential of 151%. This turned out to be v fortunate timing, as I caught the 2012 bottom (in fact, pretty much the 3 yr low) for FIG: