EIIB…Ex-Bank – Love It!

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Arab Spring, asset managers, AUM, banks, de-leveraging, DiamondCorp, EIIB, European Islamic Investment Bank, frontier markets, GCC countries, HBG Holdings, inflation, Islamic finance, John Burbank, MENA, NAV discount, oil, Rasmala Holdings, real assets, Saudi Arabia, Sharia'a, TBTF, Zak Hydari

I have a long-standing aversion to banks. To me, they represent the perfect collision of two really bad ideas:

i) Regular investment in bonds & loans – a strategy offering little prospect of capital gain, but which will (quite often) attempt to wipe out your capital. And the paltry yield you earn offers little compensation. I’ve never understood how people ever find this ridiculously biased risk/reward proposition attractive.

ii) The answer lies in leverage, I guess… Another terrible idea, but this is the incredible solution people usually seize upon to juice low returns. And it usually works just long enough for everybody to forget how savagely leverage can impact liquidity & solvency, when things take an inevitable turn for the worse.

Banks, of course, take this bad marriage to its ultimate & ludicrous extremity. [And require even more leverage to overcome the drag of their cost:income ratios]. But consider the private & public incentives – why wouldn’t they?! When times are good, leverage multiplies profits…which multiplies bonuses! And leverage makes it far easier to reach that ideal bank status: TBTF, where the taxpayer’s forced to pay for your mistakes (& bonuses).

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So, Where’s The Bloody Inflation..?!

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baby boomers, banks, Bernanke, budget deficit, capital ratios, de-leveraging, debt monetization, Debt/GDP Ratio, ECB, Europe, European sovereign debt crisis, Fed, financial crisis, fiscal deficits, Flub-Med, GDP growth, Hunt brothers, income/dividend bubble, inflation, Japan, multiplier effect, Occupy Wall Street, politicians, quantitative easing, real assets, risk aversion, savings rate, stagflation, US, Volcker

I was beginning a new post in my recent Hitting the Century series (and here), and realized my next 3 investment allocations were to real assets – Natural Resources, Agri & Property. This v quickly got me thinking about inflation, enough to devote myself to this post instead:

Along the way, dear reader, you may have noticed my pronounced distaste for fiscal & monetary policy in the developed world. Particularly in the US... That’s not intended to be a US slap-down…and certainly not praise for Europe either! It’s simply a pretty inescapable conclusion if you compare the US & (the hard-core of) Europe over the past 4 decades. Jesus, I struggle to think of somebody with any real power in the US who truly gives a flying f**k about their accelerating debt burden, debt monetization, or the long-term external value of the dollar. In contrast, the ECB & certain Eurozone countries still actually exhibit a painful reluctance to take that road to monetary & fiscal oblivion – even in the face of a European sovereign debt crisis!