Hitting The Century (VIII – Agriculture)

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agri-business, agriculture, Aqua Bounty Technologies, aquaculture, Asian Citrus Holdings, Avangardco, Black Earth Farming, Cal-Maine Foods, Canada, chickens, Cresud, eggs, ETFs, farmland, fish, forestry, free cash flow, inflation, livestock, plantations, portfolio allocation, real assets, Russia, timber, Ukraine

Continued from here. This series fell by the wayside since September, as I focused on a flurry of posts covering performance, a little shareholder activism, and some pretty exciting new stock buys/write-ups. Oh, and some bubble bursting..! 😉 As a reminder: i) Asset allocation plays a far greater role in returns than perhaps we like to think – in this series I thought I’d try illuminate some of the logic behind my own portfolio allocation & stock selection, rather than individual stock picks, and ii) this portfolio allocation pie-chart might prove handy:

The prior Century post & Inflation post are v relevant too: They highlight why I believe inflation won’t prove an issue in the near/medium term, and how to prioritize the choice of real assets (property, natural resources, agri) as inflation pure plays. My expectation of delayed inflation, despite QE Infinity, has choked back my real asset allocation. Also, I consider many of my real asset holdings more special situations, than inflation plays.

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A Game of Chicken

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adjusted earnings, annual reports, blind stock valuation, bloggers, chickens, exceptionals, gypsies, intrinsic value, P/E ratio, Warren Buffett

OK, perhaps it’s time I jump on the blind stock valuation bandwagon – there’s been some good posts/responses out there recently in that vein. I’ve noticed some issues, though, with this challenge approach:  First, a blind stock valuation where nobody turns out to own the stock seems like a v sterile exercise to me. Let me just tell you now: I do own this stock, it’s v bloody interesting, and I promise I’ll be telling you more about it soon..!

So please make sure to post/email your valuation/comments asap – all great encouragement for me to get on with a write-up!

Second, reading some of the challenges, I feel like there’s been some (understandable) confusion, on all sides. Some readers state, for example, a stock’s worth $20 but they wouldn’t pay more than $10 for it. Others peg the value of another stock at $40, but highlight the market would probably pay $80. Others give a range of values. And so on… All these seem a little off-base to me – particularly in the context of a blind stock valuation.

Hins..!

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chickens, gypsies, hens, Snatch, trader, travellers

Years ago, I was home alone one afternoon enjoying a good book. Just then, the door bell rang. I sighed – where I lived, the only people who unexpectedly rang the door bell were usually salesmen, or politicians. In fact, standard form for family & friends was to just march in the first open door they could find. And if they didn’t find you in the kitchen or sitting-room, they wouldn’t think twice about banging on the bathroom door just in case you were in there!

I reluctantly opened the door…to a child! Couldn’t have been more than six years old, just a few feet tall, and he was astonishingly filthy. Yes, some readers may have figured it out, he was a knack…sorry, a traveller – I guess you’d call him a gypsy today. And under his arm he was holding a chicken…