2014 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part V)

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Bank of Ireland, Datalex, Falcon Oil & Gas, Galantas Gold Corp, Great Western Mining Corp, Irish shares, Irish Stock Exchange, Irish value investing, ISEQ, Ormonde Mining, Petrel Resources, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, Trinity Biotech

Continued from here:

[NB: Worth revisiting Part I if you’re a new reader, or you’d like a refresher on TGISVP & my approach to the whole project.]

Company:   Trinity Biotech

Prior Post(s):   2012 & 2013

Ticker:   TRIB:US

Price:   USD 26.55

First up, I should remind readers TRIB used to be a large holding for me. And I bloody well hung on for as long as I could – bailing out of my final tranche of shares last August, with a near 700% gain on my average net entry price & almost an 1,100% gain on my initial purchase price. Of course, I ended up leaving money on the table – it’s rallied another 30% since then! But I’m not sure I understand the investor who’s buying at today’s price… I much prefer being the investor who bought TRIB at a tenth of the price, when it was truly despised & neglected! But let’s keep an open mind – what’s a sensible valuation for the company today?

In reality, Trinity’s transformed itself (& its investor base) from value to growth in the past couple of years. Most of its cash pile has now been spent on acquisitions. [But it remains in rude financial health – generating healthy cash flow, with $22.3 million of cash & zero debt]. The Fiomi Diagnostics acquisition is coming to fruition – the company’s now ramping up sales & marketing for the actual/expected European & US approvals (in 2014/15) of its Troponin I & BNP cardiac tests. In 2013, they added a UK-based blood bank screening business & Immco Diagnostics, a US (autoimmune) diagnostics company. These are complementary businesses, they add another $16.5 M of revenue, and Immco’s business/pipeline can be quickly leveraged up (using TRIB’s existing resources) to a 20% pa growth trajectory.

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2013 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part IX)

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Allied Irish Banks, Bank of Ireland, Biogen Idec, Dalradian Resources, Datalex, Elan Corp, ELG Scheme, Fastnet Oil & Gas, FBD Holdings, IIU, Irish shares, Irish value investing, Pageant Holdings, Permanent TSB Group Holdings, Prime Active Capital, Royalty Pharma, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, US Oil & Gas

Continued from here. [If you’re new to the series, I recommend you re-visit my first 2013 TGISVP post].

Company:   Elan Corp

Prior Post:   Here

Ticker:   ELN:US

Price:   $11.61

Last year, I had Elan pegged for a significant fall – which definitely appeared to be on the cards with the share price falling 25%+ to sub-$10 levels in Dec & Feb. In the past 2 months, however, they’ve certainly pulled a rabbit from the hat with their recent Biogen Idec (BIIB:US) deal. This hands full control of Tysabri back to Biogen, but in return Elan receives $3.25 billion of cash, and a 12-25% royalty on future global net sales. Post-restructuring, Elan was almost entirely dependent on Tysabri – so this deal transforms the company into a highly attractive pot of cash, and a low cost/high margin royalty stream.

Unfortunately, management didn’t quite grasp this was shareholder’s money – they acted like all their bloody Xmases had come at once! They’ve promised a share buyback, but their main plan is to use the majority of the proceeds & royalties to acquire a brand new portfolio & pipeline. This is coupled with a projected reduction in annual operating expenses to (only?) $180 million per year! This has lured Royalty Pharma out of shadows, to offer shareholders an interesting alternative: An $11.00 per share bid.

TGISVP, Q3 2012 YTD Performance (I)

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Aer Lingus, Alpha Portfolio, Beta Portfolio, Cove Energy, CPL Resources, Datalex, Fastnet Oil & Gas, FBD Holdings, garbage stocks, junior resource stocks, performance appraisal, Petroneft Resources, portfolio performance, Prime Active Capital, Providence Resources, Siteserv, TGISVP, US Oil & Gas, Worldspreads

Now Q3 2012 is over, it’s time to revisit The Great Irish Share Valuation Project. Here’s my H1 2012 performance post, for reference.

First, note there’s been 1 de-listing – we already had the heads-up on it last quarter: Cove Energy (COV:LN) was taken out for GBP 240p in cash per share by PTTEP (PTTEP:TB). A marvelous result for most shareholders, except for a few over-enthusiastic latecomers that bid the shares up to GBP 270p+ in the dying days of a Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB:LN) vs. PTTEP tussle. [I’ll continue to include Cove – at its final GBP 240p value – for performance purposes for the rest of the year].

Note: Q3 2012 YTD performance for each stock is TGISVP specific – that is, performance is measured from the specific date (in Q1) I set a target price for each stock. [Apologies if you’d prefer to see actual YTD performance for all stocks – but I suspect there’d be a high degree of overlap in the winners & losers, anyway].

TGISVP – H1 2012 Performance – Firing On all Cylinders!

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Aer Lingus, AGI Therapeutics, Alpha Portfolio, Beta Portfolio, Botswana Diamonds, Cove Energy, Datalex, ISEQ, Karelian Diamond Resources, market-neutral, natural resource stocks, Ovoca Gold, Petroneft Resources, portfolio performance, Prime Active Capital, Providence Resources, Readymix, Risk Arbitrage, Siteser, Smart Alpha Portfolio, Smart Beta Portfolio, TGISVP, Worldspreads

Now H1 2012 is over, it’s time to revisit The Great Irish Share Valuation Project. Here’s my Q1 2012 performance post – well worth revisiting as background, but I’ll recap some important points below.

Let’s first look at individual stocks. I count 4 de-listings (which I’ll continue to include for performance purposes, at their final values): AGI Therapeutics (AGI:ID/LN) was a profitable Event-Driven investment for me, and inspiration for some detailed Risk Arb. posts. Siteserv (SSV:ID/LN) & Worldspreads (WSPR:LN/ID) both exited amid scandal – possibly criminal in the case of the latter, with alleged charges now including share price manipulation, in addition to accounting/actual fraud. Finally, Readymix (RYX:ID) succumbed to a Cemex (CX:US) bid, illustrating that the right investment thesis (an eventual takeout by the controlling shareholder) is not enough. Timing & the price you pay are equally important – despite the bid premium, RYX’s multi-year operational & price decline meant v few long term shareholders made any profit. Looking ahead, Cove Energy (COV:LN) seems set to follow the de-listers, but promises to provide some final drama!

The Great Irish Share Valuation Project II

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Alkermes, CPL Resources, CRH, Datalex, DCC, Donegal Creameries, Elan, FBD Holdings, Grafton Group, Great Western Mining, IIU, Liberty Mutual, Monaghan Mushrooms, Produce Investments, Sherlock, TGISVP

OK, folks, let me throw another dozen stocks into the mix!

The Great Irish Share Valuation Project II     (xlsx file)

The Great Irish Share Valuation Project II     (xls file)

A couple of housekeeping items, if you’ll take a look at the first (Wexboy) sheet:  I’ve added a Blog Link column to the right – if I’ve written about a stock already, you’ll find the link there. I’ll bold any stock (see FBD, for example) where I’ve disclosed an ownership stake. I’ve also added some averages at the bottom of the sheet. I’ll discuss these in more detail when there are valuations for a majority/all of the shares listed, but they’re pretty self-explanatory and already look interesting.