Hitting The Century (V – Ireland)

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% of world GDP, Andrew Langford, COR, default, Emerald Isle, Europe, European sovereign debt crisis, Event Driven, Fairfax, FBD Holdings, Greece, home bias investing, Ireland, Irish value investing, ISEQ, Prem Watsa, Price/Book, Return on Equity, taxes, Thatcher, Total Produce, Trinity Biotech, UK, Wilbur Ross

Continued from here. OK, let’s take a look at my next investment allocation:

Ireland (16%):   So much for all my rabbiting on about home-bias, what a terrible job I’ve done here..! Ireland accounts for a whopping great 0.3% of world GDP, and yet I’ve got 16% of my portfolio invested in the Emerald Isle (yes, please visit, all tourist revenues gladly accepted)!? OK, so, in my defence:

i) C’mon, everybody’s doing it! I’m confident 16% is far lower than the average Irish investor (and US investors are just as bad – how many realize US GDP is now just 22% of world GDP?).

ii) As Philip O’Sullivan (taking off the green jersey?!) reminded me, these stock picks are not that Irish anyway! Total Produce (TOT:ID/LN) is essentially pan-European, Trinity Biotech (TRIB:US) operates primarily in the US (& Europe) – I guess FBD Holdings (FBD:ID, FBH:LN) is my only true Irish exposure!

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A Greek Tragedy…?

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austerity, Big Brother, budget deficit, citizenship, Debt/GDP Ratio, default, Europe, European sovereign debt crisis, Greece, Occupy Wall Street, politicians, remittance economy, tragedy of the commons, US, venality

Two key (related) themes echo through recent articles about the Greek sovereign debt crisis. I’ve the distinct & nagging feeling something’s missing here? Hmmm… Anyway, the first theme is the expression of outrage at Greek politicians, their profligate ways and their general shiftiness. Sure, it’s always fun to criticize politicians, but why bother really? What exactly did you expect of them? I’m bemused by the air of superiority displayed in some articles – nah, nah, nah, my politicians are better than yours! Rubbish, there’s nothing unique about Greek politicians in a global context – they’re just a little further down the road to hell…

Let’s think about what makes them tick: Well, they say politics is an unpredictable business – true, you just can’t second-guess stupidity sometimes. But otherwise, you mostly just need to consider the actors’ motivations. Depressingly, this seems to boil down to Money, Power, or both! OK, Duty’s another possibility – reluctant leaders are often the best leaders. But how often, in the past decade or two, have you seen a politician consistently serve out of a clear sense of duty?

A Simple Eurobond Proposal

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Debt/GDP Ratio, default, ECB, ESFS, Eurobonds, European Fiscal Compact, European sovereign debt crisi, Eurozone, fiscal deficits, Ireland, LTRO

I’ve tried my best to ignore all European news and hysteria in the past couple of years. It’s been a wonderful time/sanity-saver for me! And really, what have I missed in the way of concrete political progress?! But enough is enough, how about a real bloody solution now..?

I was never impressed with the old chestnut that sovereign debt’s superior (to corporate) due to a government’s ability to impose & collect taxes. Sure, and it can spend just about any level of revenues too, among other failings..! Whatever the argument, you can’t escape the fact a nation is the embodiment of ‘Us vs. Them‘. When it comes to the crunch, government can always re-write, or tear up, any contract they wish – the ‘Us‘ inevitably comes first . [Hmm, I guess Ireland’s the exception that proves the rule? God, the half-wits in power couldn’t even fail properly..!]. So any type of in-country sovereign enhancement is pointless. And talk of, say, collateralization or sale of Greek islands is just plain ludicrous!

When Irish Eyes Were Not Smiling

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bank debt, Debt/GDP Ratio, default, fiscal deficits, Ireland, Japan

I’ve avoided talking about Ireland’s debt situation ‘til now – it makes my blood boil to think about it! It’s v difficult to comment or analyze when you’re starting from a point that should never have been reached…

Where to begin..? Well, nearly every day I get a nagging feeling, try to ignore it and finally (with a start) wonder if I was off sick the day the Irish government explained EXACTLY why they took on tens of billions of bank debts/losses?! And I never got the note either! Plenty of friends, relatives and colleagues ask me to explain this mystery, and to my embarrassment I just can’t! Now I just tell them what I think they want to hear…

Please help me. Why?!?