Donegal Investment Group (DCP:ID)

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activist investors, DCP, Donegal Creameries, Donegal Investment Group, Ian Ireland, Irish shares, Irish value investing, Monaghan Middlebrook Mushrooms, Ronnie Wilson, share repurchase, shareholder value

Time flies… I published my Donegal Creameries – Low Fat Diet write-up just over a year ago. Quite obviously, it’s been a successful call 🙂 :

In my original post, I referenced the closing DCP:ID share price (on Fri, May-3rd, 2013) of EUR 3.63. The following Tuesday (the Monday was May Day), the stock rallied 28%, before closing up 18.5% at EUR 4.30. [Another endorsement: My very first suggestion was a name change…which occurred just 2 months later!] A subsequent march higher, at periodic intervals, culminated in the stock doubling after 10 months (i.e. in Mar-2014). Since then, we’ve suffered a 17% retracement – so today’s EUR 6.00 share price seems like a bargain, eh?!

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TGISVP – Hot & Not, Mid-Year 2013

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Continental Farmers Group, Donegal Creameries, Irish shares, Irish value investing, junior resource stocks, Petroceltic International, Petroneft Resources, portfolio performance, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project

After resisting the lure of reporting quarterly performance at end-March, I’m now left mulling whether I should even report my semi-annual performance(s). Sigh, I probably will… Which is a little silly really, a public (or even private) review of any six month period/return is basically meaningless! Not that I’m complaining, I think you’ll agree the first half of the year treated us all pretty damn well. 🙂 Of course, that cozy warm feeling may simply confirm we’re all addicted to ‘monetary heroin’ now.

Anyway, I noted down quarter-end prices, so why don’t I first do a (brief) post giving you a timely snapshot of current rankings for The Great Irish Share Valuation Project. [For reference, here are my first & last posts in the valuation phase of TGISVP this year].

I’ve updated all share prices, plus some underlying variables (primarily FX rates), as of June-28th. I’ve also reflected the recent 1 for 25 consolidation of Petroceltic International (PCI:LN) shares, and eliminated Continental Farmers Group (CFGP:LN) after its successful takeover in June. At this point, I haven’t otherwise updated/revised any individual company valuations, so if a particular stock grabs your attention please check for subsequent news-flow/results. Of course, you may totally disagree with my valuation(s) anyway – so I’ll provide a complete Excel file below, which you’re welcome to amend as you see fit.

Portfolio Allocation (XIV – Emerging & Frontier Markets)

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agri-business, correlation, corruption, developed markets, Donegal Creameries, emerging markets, Europe, financial crisis, frontier markets, German property, Japan, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, QE, US, volatility

Continued from here. Wow, it’s been a leisurely journey – spanning a full year – is this really my last post of the series?! Hmmm, we’ll see… Here’s my portfolio allocation pie chart one more time:

[NB: This is from Jun-2012, but since then the only major changes (funded mostly from my Hedge Fund allocation) are: a) an increase in Property from 10% to 13%, as I continue to scale up my German property exposure (see Parts I to V – also here), and b) a large jump in Agri from 5% to 11%, due to my purchase of Donegal Creameries (DCP:ID) & its subsequent hefty appreciation. Note I don’t classify DCP as an Irish stock – after all, the company feeds people (potatoes, mushrooms & yogurt) and animals, what could offer a more ideal uncorrelated exposure?!]

2013 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Final – Part XII)

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Buchans Minerals Corp, C&C Group, Donegal Creameries, Irish shares, Irish value investing, Kedco, Minco, Ovoca Gold, Petroneft Resources, Polymetal Intl., TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, Xtierra

Continued from here. This is my final post in the valuation phase of TGISVP – see here for my first 2013 TGISVP post. I’ve only 5 companies left to cover, including a new one suggested by a reader (Kedco, thanks!). [I rejected another – One 51 – as it isn’t listed on a regular exchange]. Let’s begin:

Company:   Ovoca Gold

Prior Post:   Here

Ticker:   OVG:LN

Price:   GBP 11p

What a difference a year makes, eh!? Last year, I was pretty bullish on Ovoca & its story (perhaps less so on its valuation, but I still saw a reasonable 39% upside). Wow, I even made a $2,000 call on gold (not that I was interested in participating)… However, a couple of months later, I rapidly lost interest in Ovoca as the Russians took over, dodgy loans started popping up on the balance sheet, and their American CEO abruptly resigned & sold his stake. It also made me realize Ovoca isn’t remotely an Irish company any more – in fact, I seriously considered kicking it out of TGISVP. But it’s still an Irish-listed company – so let’s hold our noses & take a closer look.

Donegal Creameries – Low Fat Diet

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activist investors, An Grianan, Camposol Holding, catalyst, dairy, DCP, Donegal Creameries, Glanbia, Ian Ireland, Irish shares, Irish value investing, Monaghan Middlebrook Mushrooms, Produce Investments, Ronnie Wilson, seed potatoes

Last week, I published a surprisingly popular post:  I identified myself as an activist investor, rather than necessarily a value investor (or, heaven forbid, a growth investor!). I meant this in the broadest sense – an activist investor sees a v different company & valuation to the one which currently exists (in the minds of most investors). That obviously implies a corporate transformation – and catalysts are a great way to ensure it occurs. Hopefully, you’ve noticed this approach in a number of my previous investment write-ups, but I also promised a brand new example! So, without further ado, let me introduce:

Donegal Creameries plc (DCP:ID)

OK, let’s just dive right in – here’s a snapshot of their last 5 years:

Ugh, that’s enough to make any investor lactose intolerant..! Revenues have declined 38% over the last 5 years – not surprisingly, cumulative operating profit (OP) is a puny EUR 0.5 mio, while net income’s not much better at EUR 3.1 mio. In per share terms, it looks worse: Net asset value (NAV) declined 12% – even if we add-back dividends, shareholders only earned 1% for the entire period. At this point, we can safely assume the majority of investors (value, or growth) have already discarded Donegal, probably for years to come, as a potential investment…

The Great Irish Share Valuation Project II

Tags

Alkermes, CPL Resources, CRH, Datalex, DCC, Donegal Creameries, Elan, FBD Holdings, Grafton Group, Great Western Mining, IIU, Liberty Mutual, Monaghan Mushrooms, Produce Investments, Sherlock, TGISVP

OK, folks, let me throw another dozen stocks into the mix!

The Great Irish Share Valuation Project II     (xlsx file)

The Great Irish Share Valuation Project II     (xls file)

A couple of housekeeping items, if you’ll take a look at the first (Wexboy) sheet:  I’ve added a Blog Link column to the right – if I’ve written about a stock already, you’ll find the link there. I’ll bold any stock (see FBD, for example) where I’ve disclosed an ownership stake. I’ve also added some averages at the bottom of the sheet. I’ll discuss these in more detail when there are valuations for a majority/all of the shares listed, but they’re pretty self-explanatory and already look interesting.