Smokin’ the S&P…H1-2015 Wexboy Portfolio Performance!

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Alternative Asset Opportunities, Argo Group, Bloomberg Euro 500, Donegal Investment Group, EIIB, FTSE 100, ISEQ, KWG Kommunale Wohnen, Newmark Security, NTR plc, One51, portfolio performance, S&P 500, takeover offers, Universe Group, value investing, Zamano

Oh Lord, where did July go..?! I’d hoped to publish my H1-2015 portfolio performance report a week/ten days ago, but I guess the days kinda slipped away – who can fault a bit of fun in the sun, esp. when my portfolio holdings are slowly but surely marching higher (despite all the China volatility & the fact the US market’s totally sucking wind this year).

Now, if you’re a regular reader, I recently detailed my (still) developing bubble thesis (Parts I to IV), suggesting an increased focus on large cap stocks (a new global Nifty Fifty) might be more profitable. [Though I’m also v conscious of certain small/micro cap successes in the past 12-18 months – a bar-bell strategy, in terms of market cap, may ultimately prove more compelling]. But in terms of immediate portfolio changes, I hastened to add: ‘I don’t believe there’s any great rush here, necessarily’. Well, that being said…let’s first kick off with some (end-June) portfolio changes!

Portfolio Sales:

Alternative Asset Opportunities (TLI:LN):  TLI had a great H2-2014 run – gaining over 22% (inc. a 2p return of capital), making it my top holding at year-end (at 11.1%). Since then, the insured have enjoyed a real stroke of luck, with just one maturity announced. Not surprisingly, the shares are off YTD in sympathy (reducing my holding, in % terms). But I’d focus on TLI’s portfolio instead – adjusting for minor FX unfavourability, and an additional 2p ret. of capital, TLI’s underlying NAV decline was limited to just 3%.

And I see no change in prospects: We’re at the end of a long & painful life expectancy adjustment process (in fact, June NAV inc. a meaningful positive LE impact), and the insured are now 91.5 yrs old on average – maturities will inevitably accelerate (peaking in 2019-20). There’s little financial risk (with an available credit facility, zero debt & cash on hand), and TLI’s focused on regular returns of capital. Sure, we can debate valuations, but shouldn’t lose sight of the big picture – as per the latest results, the portfolio now consists of $132 million in death benefits vs. a current carrying value of $45 million.

But owning such a defensive & uncorrelated investment isn’t as compelling a requirement for me today, and I see equally attractive (albeit, more correlated) opportunities elsewhere. I’ve reduced my shareholding accordingly, from 9.1% to 7.0%. [NB: I normally don’t add to individual holdings beyond a 7.5% limit – TLI remains a substantial position for me].

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European Islamic Investment Bank – Tender Offer/AGM Reminder

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asset management, EIIB, European Islamic Investment Bank, share buy back, shareholder activism, shareholder value, tender offer, Zak Hydari

I hope readers were just as pleased (as I was) to note the recent tender offer announcement by European Islamic Investment Bank (EIIB:LN). Even if you’re not an EIIB shareholder, it’s an excellent reminder activism isn’t simply a bloodsport practiced by US hedge funds. All investors, large & small, have rights & responsibilities as the owners of the companies they invest in – and sometimes they need to insist their voice is heard by management…

I proposed such a tender offer to EIIB management in my Jan-2014 letter (with the support of Guy Thomas, Ali Al Shihabi & a number of other shareholders). Of course, this letter was a follow-up to my previous 2013 letter. Some might argue I’ve been far too sedate/polite in my activism – that’s understandable – I could definitely have taken a far more aggressive activist stance, but in this instance my approach reflected my underlying (positive) perspective on the business. As I’ve detailed before, I believe EIIB offers investors a compelling triple play on frontier markets, Islamic finance, and Middle Eastern oil wealth & resources. Unfortunately, in its previous incarnation, that potential was wasted…

However, the arrival of HBG & the appointment of Zak Hydari as CEO stabilized the business, led to the acquisition of Rasmala & re-focused operating strategy on becoming a leading GCC asset manager. Which has, to date, been a great success – not that you’d notice from the share price – Assets under Management (AUM) have doubled in just 2 years (to USD 1,176 million at year-end 2013, from USD 600 million in Jan-2012). This is clearly a high margin business, with attractive economies of scale, but that’s not yet apparent due to the restructuring of Rasmala/EIIB & the rapid expansion in AUM. Unfortunately, as things stand, it’s unlikely this operating progress/potential can deliver a decent return on equity for shareholders in the foreseeable future – because any likely return will end up swamped in a sea of equity! [EIIB currently has GBP 123 million of equity, mostly in cash & liquid securities].

A Letter to the CEO (& Board) of European Islamic Investment Bank

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Ali Al Shihabi, AUM, EIIB, European Islamic Investment Bank, Guy Thomas, HBG Holdings, HBG Management Partners, Rasmala Holdings Limited, shareholder activism, tender offer, Zak Hydari, Zulfi Caar Hydari

Here’s a copy of a letter I’ve forwarded to EIIB’s CEO & board:

‘January 26, 2014

FAO:       Zulfi Caar Hydari, CEO

CC:         H.E. Abdallah Yahya Al-Mouallimi, Chairman

                 Mohammed Abdul Aziz Ibrahim Al Sarhan, Sr. Ind. Director

                 John Robertson Wright, Non-Exec. Director

                 Michael Willingham-Toxvaerd, Non-Exec. Director

                 Martin Gilbert Barrow, CBE, Non-Exec. Director

European Islamic Investment Bank plc (EIIB:LN)

Milton Gate

60 Chiswell Street

London EC1Y 4SA

United Kingdom

Dear Zak,

I’m writing this letter with the full support & active input of Guy Thomas (CIO, Hazell Carr Edwards FURB) and Ali Al Shihabi (founder & former Chairman of Rasmala Holdings Limited (‘Rasmala’)). You’ve obviously spoken & emailed with each of us, jointly or separately, on numerous occasions. We currently own an aggregate stake of between 4% and 5% in EIIB. In the last annual report, you stated ‘in 2013 we will begin to focus attention on translating our success into improved share price performance’. We’re disappointed by the subsequent lack of progress, and disturbed by a number of recent developments. To summarize:

EIIB – Closing The Value Gap

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% of AUM, AUM, EIIB, European Islamic Investment Bank, frontier markets, GCC countries, Investor Relations, Islamic finance, MENA, NAV discount, Norges, Rasmala Holdings, share buyback, Sharia'a, Zak Hydari

In mid-April, I realized it was a full year since I’d last posted about European Islamic Investment Bank (EIIB:LN). No real neglect on my part (EIIB is now a Top 3 holding for me), but simply an undimmed confidence in their underlying story & intrinsic value. A fresh write-up made sense (esp. with 2012 final results due for release), as I suspected EIIB would be a brand new & interesting stock for a lot of (more recent) readers. [The stock actually rallied +15% in the week after my post].

The results speak for themselves, and received an enthusiastic reception from current & prospective shareholders. [EIIB shares are now up +27% since my last post]. These are the first set of results to properly illustrate EIIB’s new asset management strategy, its operational turn-around & progress to date, and the exciting potential of the MENA region. Again, see my prior post, but I definitely encourage you to read the full set of results – or even better, the entire annual report! Let’s divide the rest of this post into four sections:

Highlights:

– Assets under Management (AUM) increased +53% to $922 million, including a mandate win from Norway’s sovereign wealth fund

– EIIB & Rasmala staff/operating expense costs were basically halved – ahead of forecast, with some further efficiencies targeted for 2013

– Underlying business operating near-breakeven (GBP 0.6 mio pre-tax loss, exc. write-downs & discontinued ops.)

– A reduced GBP 13.3 mio in legacy assets targeted for an orderly exit

– Balance sheet risk continues to reduce, with 75%+ of assets invested in cash, deposits & fixed income, and liabilities limited to 25% of total assets

– Wholesale strategy confirmed, with new distribution agreements signed & existing relationships deepened. Re-iterated $3 billion AUM target by 2016

Also, this commitment from the CEO particularly grabbed my attention:

EIIB…Ex-Bank – Love It!

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Arab Spring, asset managers, AUM, banks, de-leveraging, DiamondCorp, EIIB, European Islamic Investment Bank, frontier markets, GCC countries, HBG Holdings, inflation, Islamic finance, John Burbank, MENA, NAV discount, oil, Rasmala Holdings, real assets, Saudi Arabia, Sharia'a, TBTF, Zak Hydari

I have a long-standing aversion to banks. To me, they represent the perfect collision of two really bad ideas:

i) Regular investment in bonds & loans – a strategy offering little prospect of capital gain, but which will (quite often) attempt to wipe out your capital. And the paltry yield you earn offers little compensation. I’ve never understood how people ever find this ridiculously biased risk/reward proposition attractive.

ii) The answer lies in leverage, I guess… Another terrible idea, but this is the incredible solution people usually seize upon to juice low returns. And it usually works just long enough for everybody to forget how savagely leverage can impact liquidity & solvency, when things take an inevitable turn for the worse.

Banks, of course, take this bad marriage to its ultimate & ludicrous extremity. [And require even more leverage to overcome the drag of their cost:income ratios]. But consider the private & public incentives – why wouldn’t they?! When times are good, leverage multiplies profits…which multiplies bonuses! And leverage makes it far easier to reach that ideal bank status: TBTF, where the taxpayer’s forced to pay for your mistakes (& bonuses).

Heading Into 2013…

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Alternative Asset Opportunities, Argo Group, Asta Funding, Avangardco, correlation, EIIB, FBD Holdings, Fortress Investment Group, JPMorgan Russian Securities, KWG Kommunale Wohnen, Livermore Investments, Margin of Safety, Petroneft Resources, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, Richland Resources, shareholder activism, Sirius Real Estate, Total Produce, Trinity Biotech, Universe Group, Vietnam Opportunity Fund

There was a gratifyingly large surge of page views yesterday checking in on my 2012 Portfolio Performance! I’m suitably humbled by the attention – gulp, makes me wonder what challenges 2013 will throw up?! Hopefully the blog’s sparked a few decent ideas & stock picks for you in the last year or so, and you’re pleased with the progress of your own portfolio in 2012. It’s certainly been rewarding for me – most obviously in terms of improving my investment focus & analysis, but also in terms of the constant stream of questions, challenges, feedback, gossip, ideas, etc. from blog readers.

As a result, I now feel somewhat honour-bound to cough up some kind of 2013 Portfolio. I should immediately flag that some of you may find this a bit of a cop-out… 😦 But, in my defence, let me say:

– The start of a new year really means little to me, I don’t suddenly discover I have whole new batches of stocks to buy & sell!

– I rarely write about stocks I don’t own. This is pretty deliberate – my intention was never to simply fill up blank space with an idea each day/each week. I think people can really only judge your level of analysis & conviction against whether you actually own a stock – and, of course, by how much stock you own!

– I also don’t write about stocks I track, or discard, very much. First, mostly because they’re far too numerous! Second, I’m not sure I’d always manage a proper (in-depth) write-up about such stock(s). And third, I’ve sometimes tracked stocks every single day for literally years on end before buying – how often do you want to hear about them?!

2012 – Aaah, How Was It For You..?

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alternative assets, Argentina, Argo Group, Avangardco, Baker's Dozen, diversification, dividend yield, EIIB, frontier markets, hedge funds, home bias investing, Irish shares, JPMorgan Russian Securities, NAV discount, Petroneft Resources, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, Renaissance Russia Infrastructure Equities, Richland Resources, Russia, Sirius Real Estate

[Here’s my last performance report, for reference].

OK, just in time, my performance analysis got a bit more sophisticated. It now includes dividends, and is calculated on a weighted average gain basis, so now the impact of larger & smaller portfolio stakes is recognized. I think I’ve tracked any increase/decrease in portfolio holdings pretty well during the year, via Twitter (so plse sign up as a follower!) & blog comments. [No point in having interested readers if I don’t post such relevant info on a timely basis]. This allowed me to calculate an average portfolio stake for each holding, which I think is the best metric to use.

I did, however, stick with my original yr-end 2011 or 2012 write-up prices as a cost base – I didn’t want to drive myself crazy calculating average net purchase prices! However, I know I’ve subsequently added to portfolio holdings at higher & lower prices, so I think that pretty much cancels itself out. It also means I’ve omitted partial profits harvested on certain holdings, so my total return may be marginally understated.

Overall, eyeballing my respective analyses, dividends & portfolio weightings have in total (on a pretty even split) added about 2-3% to my annual return. The pretty low contribution from dividends may surprise you, but don’t forget I’m none too enamoured with them… See here, here & here. As far as I’m concerned, if you’re impressed enough with a stock’s valuation & prospects to actually buy it, surely you’d prefer to see it compound its earnings?! Only a third of my holdings pay a dividend.

Hitting The Century (III)

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Argo Group, Avangardco, dividend coverage, dividend yield, EIIB, Ex-Cash Ratios, FBD Holdings, Net LTV, P/E ratio, Petroneft Resources, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, Price/Book, Price/Sales, TGISVP, Total Produce, Trinity Biotech, Wordpress

Damn WordPress! If you viewed/received a similar Century (Part III) post (since deleted), please ignore it – it was just a draft & I’ve updated/revised figures across the board since. Not quite sure how WordPress managed to publish it for me..!

Right, continued from here. In my last post I promised: ‘OK, next I’ll take you through each of my investment allocations – and try to give a flavour of my thinking, and some underlying stocks/funds, in each instance‘. However, I’ve just completed a detailed quarter-end portfolio update/review, so let’s flip things ’round – perhaps you’d be interested in a timely look at some portfolio metrics¹, and we’ll return to investment allocations in my next post?

Yes, really? So you like the pretty panties, but you still want to know the damn cost..?! Sigh, value investors..! OK:

EIIB – So, You Want to Run a Marathon..?!

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Damille, DiamondCorp, discount control mechanism, doughnut boy, EIIB, HBG Holdings, Laxey, marathon, NAV discount, Qannas Investments, quid pro quo, QVT, Rasmala, share buyback, sukuk, tender offer, Total Expense Ratio, track & field, Weiss

C’mon, you’re kidding..? No, seriously, you’re taking the mickey?! In March, the European Islamic Investment Bank (EIIB:LN) (which I last wrote about here) share price looked ready to challenge the GBP 3.9-4.25p resistance zone. This has capped EIIB for almost 3 years now. But here we are, 1 month later, and the price hit GBP 2.8p just in time for Easter – off 24%! No change in volume, or holdings…what’s going on?! And it’s not clear the board have noticed… But I’m sure they’re well aware of EIIB’s intrinsic value, and are focused on the marathon task of their new operating strategy…

All very well but, as any health professional will tell you, before embarking on (and to be successful in) a marathon, you should first do a health check and then scale up with plenty of walking, exercise, jogging, running and even some fartlek. So health check first, then track & field, and then marathon..! But the current share price (and NAV discount) certainly don’t present a healthy diagnosis of the budding athlete…

IMHO, EIIB is VIP!

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Abu Dhabi Capital Management, Brent, Dan Yergin, EIIB, GCC countries, HBG Holdings, Iran, John Burbank, JSM Indochina, Matthew Simmons, Passport Capital, Qannas Investments, WTI

Time to revisit European Islamic Investment Bank (EIIB:LN).

Call it a gut feeling, but in the past month or two I’ve become increasingly convinced oil has the potential for another price spike. The last 2 weeks have seen the first sustained break of $100 for WTI in the past year. The $111.50-114.50 zone should prove pretty tough resistance, but a potential break of this zone would definitely signal the oil price’s going into orbit. Brent‘s even closer to its key medium term resistance zone of about $125.50-127…

Perhaps I’m a touch cynical, but I’m completely bemused to see Obama hold himself out as the voice of reason in the whole Iran (and Israel) situation. WTF?! Where on earth do you think most of the sabre-rattling with Iran is coming from? Yeah, White House back-channels, of course… And expect the rhetoric, and paranoia, to get much worse as we head into summer. It’s always useful for a sitting President to play the defence/war/security card as he heads into an election…