Time to wrap up the mid-year review(s) – let’s finish with The Great Irish Share Valuation Project. To recap:
– A total of 73 Irish companies are included this year (same as last year – but US Oil & Gas (USOP:G4) & Fastnet Oil & Gas (FAST:LN) were subsequently listed, so I added them later in the year, increasing the 2012 total to 75).
– Each company’s been individually reviewed & valued, some time between Jan & May, and I’ve kept a record of all share prices (at time of evaluation) & price targets to properly assess performance.
– I’ve made no subsequent changes to the file, except: i) to adjust for DCC (DCC:LN) migrating to a London-only listing & for Petroceltic International (PCI:LN) consolidating its shares 1 for 25, and ii) Continental Farmers Group (CFGP:LN) will continue to be included at its GBP 36p takeover price (the Saudi bail-out came in the nick of time, just before the cash ran dry!).
– Since my TGISVP review/valuation phase was spread over 4 1/2 mths, we need to adjust our benchmark (the ISEQ) accordingly. Like last year, I’ll take the mid-point (in terms of companies valued) of this phase – i.e. Feb-25th – as the most appropriate start date for the index.
I’m bemused to see I’ve apparently become more bearish this year! Last year, I was bullish on 48% of all stocks, while this year that’s now dropped to 40%. But consider the unique nature of TGISVP, which includes an extraordinary selection of junior resource stocks, complete with assorted incompetents & cowboys! Not surprisingly, I’m bearish on pretty much all these rubbish stocks – so stripping ’em out, it’s fair to say I remain bullish on Irish stocks. 🙂 OK, perhaps a little less so today, but with the ISEQ up +17.1% in 2012 & another +16.7% this year, that’s no great shocker..!