Irish Shares 2012 – The Good & The Bad

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Aer Lingus, FBD Holdings, Greencore, Irish shares, Petrel Resources, Petroneft Resources, Providence Resources, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, Total Produce, US Oil & Gas, Worldspreads

I’m just finalizing my review of The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (TGISVP) for 2012. My end-Q3 review is here & here for reference (and this post’s relevant also – it may even offer some interesting commentary on general stock selection & valuation). In this post I’ll cover last year’s winners & losers.

NB: FY 2012 performance is TGISVP specific, i.e. it’s only measured from the specific date I set a target price for each stock in Q1 2012. [Apologies if you’d prefer actual FY 2012 stock performances – but I’m sure there would be a high degree of overlap, anyway]. There’s no M&A to highlight for Q4 – the only items of note are i) United Drug (UDG:LN) abandoned its Irish listing in favour of London, and ii) Elan (ELN:US) spun out its drug-discovery unit, Prothena Corp (PRTA:US) – but the impact for shareholders was minimal.

Here’s the 2012 Top 10 Winners:

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How About Another Catalyst? (Part IV)

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Expected Value, Greencore, IFG Group, IRR, Margin of Safety, offer premium, preliminary approach, recommended offer, Risk Arbitrage, takeover offers, Takeover Panel

Continued from here:

iii) Takeover Offers are a catalyst with a much shorter duration than Liquidations or Wind-downs, usually within 2 to 8 months. In the UK, for example, Takeover Panel rules keep things on a fairly strict timetable. In terms of risk, they probably fall somewhere between the two: Your Gross Return is reasonably stable/well-defined, but price volatility and the chances of failure are a lot higher.

It’s not so prudent to give examples of current takeover offers, as price volatility and news flow can change things all too quickly. But I’ll give a brief update on a current Risk Arb situation in which I’m investing, and share my own observations and approach to this type of catalyst:

Top 10 Most Popular Posts in 2011

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Argo Group, Black Earth Farming, Dhir India, ECDC, EIIB, farmland, Greencore, Total Produce

Here we are, beginning with the most popular post:

Duh, Duh, Dhir…

Total Produce (TOT:ID) – A Fruity Delight?

Argo – Time to Claim the Golden Fleece

The Worm in the Greencore (II)

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distressed, Greencore, IFG Group, Interest Coverage, Margin of Safety, Operating FCF, Pension Deficit, Rights Issue, Uniq

Greencore Group plc (GNC:ID or GNC:LN)

• Mkt Price:  EUR 0.635
• Mkt Cap:  EUR 244.2 mio
• P/E:  3.9   (well, sorta…based on 2011 Cont Adj EPS)
• P/S:  0.19
• Div Yield:  8.5%      

Continued from here… Before we look at Uniq, there’s two other acquisitions to tackle: First is the abortive (recommended) merger with Northern Foods. I was shocked when this was announced in Nov-2010. What the hell were they doing? Despite the management guff, clearly they already had enough on their plate. At least it was a nil premium merger, and promised GBP 40 mio of annual savings within 3 years. On that basis, things might not necessarily get any worse after the merger, and just might get better..! The market certainly shared this conclusion, with GNC’s share price actually rallying sharply.

The Worm in the Greencore (I)

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Ballymaloe relish, Charlie Haughey, exceptionals, Greencore, Net Interest/EBITA, Operating FCF, Tesco, Total Produce, Uniq

Greencore Group plc (GNC:ID or GNC:LN)

• Mkt Price:  EUR 0.645
• Mkt Cap:  EUR 248.2 mio
• P/E:  4.0   (well, sorta…based on 2011 Cont Adj EPS)
• P/S:  0.19
• Div Yield:  8.4%      

I’ve been champing at the bit for the latest Greencore results, which just came out today. They’re always enjoyable to review, and a real boost to my day. Gee, I wish I could live in Greencore’s happy world forever. It’s amazing how wonderful a picture they can paint in the pages of their annual report. Um, I mean the front pages of the report. Perhaps errant husbands or wives should commission and present their spouses with an annual report each year? With a Nov year-end, of course, so it’s always the best present under the Xmas tree. Jesus, we’d never hear of another divorce ever..!

Total Produce (TOT:ID) – A Fruity Delight?

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Balmoral International Land, DCC, Fyffes, Greencore, Margin of Safety, Net Interest/EBITA, pdosullivan, Total Produce, value investing, valuestockinquisition

Total Produce (TOT:ID)

Mkt Price:  EUR 0.39

Mkt Cap:  EUR 128.7 mio

Net Interest/EBITA%:  9.0%

P/E Ratio:  5.6

P/S Ratio:  0.05

Dividend Yield:  4.6%      

Fair Value:  EUR 0.882

Upside Potential:  126%

Total Produce is Europe’s premier fresh produce provider. Growing, sourcing, importing, packaging, distributing and marketing over 200 lines of fresh fruits, vegetables and flowers, the Total Produce group distributes some 250 million cartons of fresh produce annually to the retail, wholesale, foodservice and processing sectors across 19 countries in Europe.