averaging, fear and greed, investment checklists, investment process, investment theme, noise, risk vs. reward, stock picking, technical analysis, worship the spreadsheet
It’s New Year’s Eve…and in the end, it’s been a pretty tough & frustrating year for many investors out there. [‘Less you’re Irish & stuck close to home – just look at this friggin’ chart!] And while the holiday season’s all about celebrating the year gone by & ahead, it can be tough (as the booze kicks in) not to get a little disheartened and experience some real doubt about your portfolio & your stock-picking prowess.
And the financial media’s no help – the talking heads & market strategists chatter about the biggest winners of the past year, and opine on the stocks & trends to focus on in 2016. How on earth are they be so confident & so prescient? It’s simple…’cos that’s how they get paid & promoted! Just like CEOs, just like politicians, just like your boss, the big bucks are paid almost inevitably to the big swinging dick. Not the fidgety little guy in the corner, analysing stacks of data & second-guessing himself to death. Truth is, they don’t need to be right, that’s irrelevant. Because they’re looking to attract attention, earn fees, increase AUM, etc…and ultimately, confidence sells.
Trouble is, you need to be right.
But you don’t feel confident, like they do. And so the dance continues… They go on TV, and dish out all the confident narrative & commentary you crave. Except the only obvious market truism (‘stocks go up, over time…’) isn’t a good soundbite. Instead, they analyse monthly data points. And speculate about a possible Asian pandemic. And worry over an escalating Middle East war. And hyperventilate about a junk bond-induced economic melt-down. Or a terrorist attack, or maybe even an assassination, if they get lucky. And so on, ad infinitum.
But almost inevitably, it’s all just noise…