I expect Argo Group (ARGO:LN) will be releasing interim results in the next week or so. I’ve no desire to be a hostage to fortune, but I think we can make some intelligent assumptions about their results – and there’s an important issue I want to highlight:
Let’s begin with Assets Under Management (AUM). First, I obviously have no idea re subscriptions/redemptions! But rightly or wrongly, my impression is that changes in Argo’s AUM have been driven primarily by performance, at least in the past couple of years. [NB: See here – at our meeting earlier this year, Andreas Rialas committed to better disclosure re changes in AUM – breaking out gross subscriptions, performance & gross redemptions is standard practice for the majority of Argo’s listed peers].
I also have no insight into the performance of the Argo Special Situations Fund (SSF) – let’s assume AUM remains unchanged. We then have the Argo Real Estate Opportunities Fund (AREO:LN) – which last reported an adjusted NAV of EUR 68.5 mio. For Argo’s other funds, I’ve come across conflicting reports of YTD returns – I prefer to be conservative, so I’m fairly confident we’ll see the following returns (as of end-June 2013), at a minimum: