New Portfolio Snapshot & Allocation

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agri-business, alternative assets, asset allocation, bubbles, cash, diversification, emerging markets, Europe, Event Driven, frontier markets, Ireland, luxury goods, macro investment thesis, mobile, natural resources, Nifty Fifty, portfolio allocation, property, smartphone revolution, UK, US, volatility

Welcome to the dog days of summer…

A good time to pause & take stock of my portfolio. Following on from my recent H1-2017 portfolio performance post, here’s my Top 10 Holdings today:

In fact, the table lists all of my current disclosed holdings. And just to add some overall context, only five of these holdings actually feature in my Total Portfolio Top 10, while Newmark Security doesn’t even make the Top 20 any longer.

I won’t add new commentary here, since I last focused on my big H1-2017 winners & losers, and covered all my disclosed holdings in this January Top Trumps post. Not to mention, the rash of new investment write-ups this year: Alphabet (GOOGL:US), Record (REC:LN) & Applegreen (APGN:ID). But for your reference, I will provide corporate website & Bloomberg links, links to relevant historic posts & write-ups (remember, good investment theses tend to evolve slowly!), plus the latest share price & market cap for each stock:

i) Alphabet (GOOGL:US, or GOOG:US)   (9.5% Portfolio Holding):

‘So Why Not Google It..?’

Share Price:   USD 940.08

Market Cap:   USD 648 Billion

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Current Portfolio Snapshot & Allocation

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agri-business, averaging, cash, correlation, distressed, diversification, emerging markets, Event Driven, frontier markets, Ireland, luxury goods, mobile, portfolio allocation, property, UK, US, volatility

OK, the Olympics are over – time to focus, focus!

And these pleasant late summer markets might soon grow stormy…

So it’s as good a time as any to offer up a current snapshot of my top holdings & portfolio allocation. Let’s begin with my Top Nine holdings, which follows on from my recent H1-2016 Performance post. [In this post/tables, since I made no incremental H1 buys/sells, the average stake for each holding actually equated to my year-end 2015 holdings…so eight months later, an update’s clearly overdue!]:

[Current:  As of CoB 24-Aug-2016]

For your reference, in my last post, I included a paragraph (or two) of updated commentary for each individual holding. I also completed a similar exercise in my Top Tips post back in January. And just for completeness here, I’ll again provide corporate website & Bloomberg links, links to relevant posts/write-ups (remember, good investment theses tend to evolve slowly), plus the closing share price & market cap for each stock:

i) Zamano (ZMNO:ID, or ZMNO:LN) (9.3% Portfolio Holding):

‘Zamano…So, What Now?!’      (NB: First link = most recent post/write-up)

‘Zoom, Zoom…Zamano!’

Share Price:   EUR 0.113

Market Cap:   EUR 11.2 Million

The Celtic Phoenix…Five Consecutive Years of Market Gains & 6.6% GDP Growth!?

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Celtic Phoenix, intrinsic value, Ireland, Irish shares, Irish Stock Exchange, Irish value investing, ISEQ, stock valuation, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project

A picture’s worth a thousand words – here’s a 5 year chart of the ISEQ:

Truly, a thing of beauty…

And over the life of the blog, the Irish market has delivered four consecutive years of gains:

2012:   +17.1%

2013:   +33.6%

2014:   +15.1%

2015:   +30.0%

Cumulative Gain:   +134%

[And yes, the title of the post’s correct…the ISEQ also managed to eke out a small gain in 2011: +0.6%.]

And here’s the cumulative gains (over the same period) of the other major indices I use as portfolio benchmarks:

S&P 500:   +63%

FTSE 100:   +12%

Bloomberg European 500:   +46%

Wow, even the S&P’s performance looks positively pedestrian…

Red or Green REIT?!

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blind pool, commercial property, Franklin Templeton, Green Property, Green Property Ventures, Green REIT, GRN, IPO, Ireland, Irish property, Irish shares, Irish value investing, NAMA, NAV premium, Pat Gunne, Paulson & Co, Pimco, Stephen Vernon, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project

Green REIT (GRN:ID) is Ireland’s first real estate investment trust. And the first ISE main market listing in over 5 years (a shock for the somnolent exchange staff, I’m sure). In fact, the IPO was so unprecedented, even the Minister for Finance turned up – here’s his speech! Not to mention the press, who fell on the story like a pack of dogs. But really, what do you expect? If there’s one thing that unites people, it’s a fervent desire for property to increase in value. Which is particularly true of Ireland, especially now – we blew the bubble we had, and Lord we so desperately want it back…

Yes, bored real estate agents want to treat buyers like scum & regain the respect they deserve. Mortgage holders just want to return to break-even, so they can finally relax & enjoy those gigantic monthly mortgage payments for the next 20 years. Old tyme reporters are sick of being forced to write real (i.e. non-property & interior design) stories, while their ad departments are tired of calling ’round begging for business. The banks dread visiting their own bank manager (NAMA & the Dept. of Finance) – while acting the gombeen with recalcitrant borrowers is somewhat problematic when they were reduced to beggary themselves not so long ago. As for the politicians, they just want to close their eyes & wake up when everything’s alright again…and then take all the credit! Finally, we have the poor old taxpayer…he just dreams of getting back to the good old days.

Because property solves all problems – doesn’t it?!

But I have to confess, I’m more than a little fascinated by the Green REIT IPO. Is it me, or did we just hit an inflection point? Could this be a new zeitgeist we’re witnessing? Well, if the collective national psyche could will it, Ireland’s certainly right about bloody due now… Oh boy, that’s a huge subject to tackle – for the moment, why don’t we take a closer look at:

FBD Holdings – COR Blimey, Mate!

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Andrew Langford, Baker's Dozen, Berkshire Hathaway, catalyst, Combined Operating Ratio, Fairfax Financial, FBD, FBD Holdings, Greenlight Capital, insurance, Ireland, ISEQ, New Ireland Fund, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, property & casualty, Quinn Insurance, Return on Equity, TGISVP, underwriting

Insurance companies are intriguing! Maybe it’s my inner value investor, but I suspect it’s really the mathematician in me… They’re like giant Rube Goldberg contraptions – it’s fascinating to contemplate the interaction & logic that dictates the inner workings of the machine. Trouble is, you’re never quite sure it won’t blow up in your face! Investment portfolios can be full of land mines, and debt can fatally exacerbate risk. Underwriting risk may present the most dangerous risk. A company can write far too much insurance, at far too low a price, and nobody might be any the wiser for years to come…

The first line of defence is industry & government regulation. As I highlighted here, the regulators have generally done a better job (than, for example, bank regulators!). But good investors need to be self-reliant – S&P and Moody’s reminded us of that! Your choice of company can lower risk substantially. Focus on those with i) low(er) risk/plain vanilla investment portfolios, ii) low/zero levels of debt, iii) consistent & profitable underwriting records, and iv) less exposure to tail risk & the tyranny of discount rates (go for property & casualty (P&C) insurers, not life or re-insurers!). Of course, lower risk might just equate with boring – we’d like something more exceptional…

At this point (um, damn title!), you’d probably have expected me to home in on an insurance company CEO and/or CIO who’s an exceptional investor: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A:US), Fairfax Financial (FFH:CN), and Greenlight Capital Re (GLRE:US) are classic examples, and all look attractive from a value perspective. But there’s a much less flashy/newsworthy way to run an insurance company: Exceptional underwriting.

TGISVP, Q3 ’12 YTD Performance (II)

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alpha, Alpha Portfolio, beta, Beta Portfolio, Fastnet Oil & Gas, intrinsic value, Ireland, Irish shares, Irish Stock Exchange, Irish value investing, ISEQ, Smart Alpha Portfolio, Smart Beta Portfolio, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, US Oil & Gas, value investing

Continued from here. Sorry for that tease earlier this week, I promise we’ll actually get to YTD performance of the TGISVP Portfolios in this post..! My H1 post is good background – particularly note the following:

– Q3 2012 YTD performance for each stock is TGISVP specific – i.e., measured from the specific (Q1) date I set a target price for each stock – because this was/is intended to be a real-time exercise in portfolio construction & management

– Two exceptions: Fastnet Oil & Gas (FAST:LN) & US Oil & Gas (USOP) were added in Sep. Based on their significant Downside Potential rankings, both are now included as EUR (3) shorts in the Alpha Portfolios (see here for more detail on overall portfolio construction)

– ISEQ YTD performance is measured from Feb-6th**. I noted: ‘I think the fairest, and most comparable, benchmark to use is the ISEQ’s performance since Feb-6th. The valuation stage of the Project was stretched out over Jan-March, but on that date I reached the half-way point, so this is a good average starting point for a benchmark comparison. It’s not perfect, but I think it’s the simplest and most obvious solution.‘

Hitting The Century (V – Ireland)

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% of world GDP, Andrew Langford, COR, default, Emerald Isle, Europe, European sovereign debt crisis, Event Driven, Fairfax, FBD Holdings, Greece, home bias investing, Ireland, Irish value investing, ISEQ, Prem Watsa, Price/Book, Return on Equity, taxes, Thatcher, Total Produce, Trinity Biotech, UK, Wilbur Ross

Continued from here. OK, let’s take a look at my next investment allocation:

Ireland (16%):   So much for all my rabbiting on about home-bias, what a terrible job I’ve done here..! Ireland accounts for a whopping great 0.3% of world GDP, and yet I’ve got 16% of my portfolio invested in the Emerald Isle (yes, please visit, all tourist revenues gladly accepted)!? OK, so, in my defence:

i) C’mon, everybody’s doing it! I’m confident 16% is far lower than the average Irish investor (and US investors are just as bad – how many realize US GDP is now just 22% of world GDP?).

ii) As Philip O’Sullivan (taking off the green jersey?!) reminded me, these stock picks are not that Irish anyway! Total Produce (TOT:ID/LN) is essentially pan-European, Trinity Biotech (TRIB:US) operates primarily in the US (& Europe) – I guess FBD Holdings (FBD:ID, FBH:LN) is my only true Irish exposure!

A Simple Eurobond Proposal

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Debt/GDP Ratio, default, ECB, ESFS, Eurobonds, European Fiscal Compact, European sovereign debt crisi, Eurozone, fiscal deficits, Ireland, LTRO

I’ve tried my best to ignore all European news and hysteria in the past couple of years. It’s been a wonderful time/sanity-saver for me! And really, what have I missed in the way of concrete political progress?! But enough is enough, how about a real bloody solution now..?

I was never impressed with the old chestnut that sovereign debt’s superior (to corporate) due to a government’s ability to impose & collect taxes. Sure, and it can spend just about any level of revenues too, among other failings..! Whatever the argument, you can’t escape the fact a nation is the embodiment of ‘Us vs. Them‘. When it comes to the crunch, government can always re-write, or tear up, any contract they wish – the ‘Us‘ inevitably comes first . [Hmm, I guess Ireland’s the exception that proves the rule? God, the half-wits in power couldn’t even fail properly..!]. So any type of in-country sovereign enhancement is pointless. And talk of, say, collateralization or sale of Greek islands is just plain ludicrous!

Wexboy Readers Around the World!

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Africa, BVI, China, Falkland Islands, Greece, Ireland, Malvinas, North Korea, Singapore, South African Property Opps, Tanzania, UK, Ukraine, USA

WordPress Stats. have been getting better & better – I’m impressed! Thought it would be fun to share some random info. on my Wexboy readership:

– Smallest:  British Virgin Islands. OK, shared with 13 other countries. Aren’t all the investment co/hedge fund managers in BVI? Surely more than a few would have come across my blog by now? What? Oh, you’re really in London (or NY) – the taxes are just dandy, but you don’t like the restaurants in BVI – ah, I see!

– Most Politically Correct:  Falkland Islands – yes, it’s also labeled as Malvinas! Yes, this was WordPress’ idea.

TGISVP VII (More Disco!)

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Black Earth region, catalyst, German property, home bias investing, Ireland, Irish shares, Irish Stock Exchange, Irish value investing, IRR, Jim Rogers, market mastery, portfolio allocation, Prem Watsa, teenage dating, TGISVP, Warren Buffett, Wilbur Ross

Continued from here. In my last post, I reflected on how pernicious the effects of ‘home bias‘ are, and asked:

So why on earth did I launch something like The Great Irish Share Valuation Project..?!?

What am I trying to do, even inadvertently? Encourage readers to abandon their current portfolio, and go all-in on Ireland and a Top 10 of high potential Irish stocks? Good grief, no…not at all! Actually, my first (and perhaps primary) motivation has been to share with you more of an investing idea, rather than any investing recommendations: