2013 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part VIII)

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Aer Lingus Group, Anton Bilton, distressed investing, equine DNA, Greencore Group, IMC Exploration Group, Irish shares, Irish value investing, ISEQ 20 ETF, iShares MSCI Ireland ETF, New Ireland Fund, Orogen Gold, Pension Deficit, Ryanair Holdings, Smurfit Kappa Group, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, Uniq plc

Continued from here.

Company:   Greencore Group

Prior Post:   Here     (valuation, see here & here for commentary!)

Ticker:   GNC:LN

Price:   GBP 95.75p

Well, I guess my perspective on Greencore last year was horribly wrong..! I’ve long considered GNC a distressed company, but the market clearly disagrees. So much so, the share price rallied almost 70% in the past year – my price target (of GBP 32.5p) was certainly left choking in the dust! But if my distressed premise is correct – and, objectively, I can’t see how you’d disagree with me – this rally isn’t so surprising. What..?! But companies like this are always a binary proposition – they simply die, or they survive & maybe even thrive eventually. And if everybody still feels blithely happy about them, they present a temptingly cheap buy. Greencore’s also a nice scary reminder of how dangerous shorting can be – poor underlying fundamentals are often ignored far longer than you can take the pain…

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The Great Irish Share Valuation Project III

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Allied Irish Banks, Bank of Ireland, First Derivatives, ICON, IFG Group, Independent News & Media, Irish Life & Permanent, ISEQ 20 ETF, Karelian Diamond Resources, Kenmare Resources, Kerry Group, singing dancing duck, Wile E. Coyote

Continued from here:

Right, let’s work our way through another batch of 10 stock valuations. As usual, I’ve updated market prices (and any relevant FX rates) for all stocks covered to date, so remember that each new file published will be a dynamic snapshot of each stock’s upside/downside potential:

The Great Irish Share Valuation Project III     (xlsx file)

The Great Irish Share Valuation Project III     (xls file)

ICON (ICLR:US):   ICON’s at a very interesting point right now. In 2009, they pretty much hit the wall, probably a reflection of the mid-life crisis that most of the major pharma companies are suffering right now. This is a pattern I’ve seen before – and forget to check up on nearly every bloody time (and, of course, it’s far easier to spot with hindsight!):