2013 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part VIII)

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Aer Lingus Group, Anton Bilton, distressed investing, equine DNA, Greencore Group, IMC Exploration Group, Irish shares, Irish value investing, ISEQ 20 ETF, iShares MSCI Ireland ETF, New Ireland Fund, Orogen Gold, Pension Deficit, Ryanair Holdings, Smurfit Kappa Group, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, Uniq plc

Continued from here.

Company:   Greencore Group

Prior Post:   Here     (valuation, see here & here for commentary!)

Ticker:   GNC:LN

Price:   GBP 95.75p

Well, I guess my perspective on Greencore last year was horribly wrong..! I’ve long considered GNC a distressed company, but the market clearly disagrees. So much so, the share price rallied almost 70% in the past year – my price target (of GBP 32.5p) was certainly left choking in the dust! But if my distressed premise is correct – and, objectively, I can’t see how you’d disagree with me – this rally isn’t so surprising. What..?! But companies like this are always a binary proposition – they simply die, or they survive & maybe even thrive eventually. And if everybody still feels blithely happy about them, they present a temptingly cheap buy. Greencore’s also a nice scary reminder of how dangerous shorting can be – poor underlying fundamentals are often ignored far longer than you can take the pain…

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2013 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part I)

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Aminex, Aryzta, Connemara Mining, Continental Farmers Group, Independent News & Media, Irish shares, Irish value investing, iShares MSCI Ireland ETF, Kenmare Resources, Kerry Group, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, Tullow Oil, UTV Media

I finished my last post with a question: ‘So, shall we continue with this TGISVP experiment in 2013..?!‘

Despite the relative comment silence, an emphatic ‘Yes!‘ appears to be in order. The success of the series was evidenced by the strong surge in Q1-2012 page views, and the significant level of out-performance enjoyed by each of the TGISVP Alpha & Beta Portfolios last year. I’d first recommend a quick review of my first TGISVP post last year as a primer, but we need to cover some important points here:

– I’m planning to (briefly) review & set a price target for all Irish companies.

– An Irish company is any company which conducts a major portion of its business in Ireland, is (genuinely) headquartered in Ireland, and/or whose management/directors/shareholders/history are predominantly Irish.

– Sure, it would be marvelous if I covered all companies simultaneously. But life (& investing) are never so convenient… I reckon there’s about 70 companies to cover, so I’ll give myself an end-March completion deadline.

– This is TGISVP-Yr II, so perhaps this will all move along much quicker this year – who knows?! To add some spice, I plan to cover companies in random order this time ’round.

The Great Irish Share Valuation Project IX

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2P Reserves, Alkermes, Amarin, Anadarko, Andor Technology, Botswana Diamonds, Circle Oil, Clontarf Energy, Connemara Mining, Cooley Distillery, Cove Energy, Dragon Oil, Escher Group, Galantas Gold, Interior Services Group, iShares MSCI Ireland ETF, Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Jim Beam, John Teeling, Kentz, Minco, Ovoca Gold, Petrel Resources, PTT, Royal Dutch Shell, Siteserv, TGISVP, Tullow Oil, USPS, Worldspreads, Xstrata, Xtierra

Continued from here.

As I’ve mentioned, we’ve another 20 odd non-ISEQ listed Irish stocks to work through still. I should first note I’ve eliminated Alkermes (ALKS:US) and Amarin (AMRN:US) (and Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ:US) never even made the cut*). Clearly, an Ireland HQ is particularly attractive for pharma companies! Any reader care to enlighten us further..? I wasn’t fooled by this shell game, but they had some Irish directors/management/locations, so I planned to include them in TGISVP. Now I look again, their Irish ‘representation‘ is pretty small, and sure to get even smaller… So they’re out – unless someone wants to email and persuade me otherwise!?

I’ve also revised valuations for Worldspreads (WSPR:LN) and Siteserv (SSV:LN) – in fact, they kind of swap places in the rankings! I was briefly commenting here on both companies, and their respective scandals, and it got a little out of control..! I had to upgrade to a separate article. Note I’m keeping a file of all original share prices and valuations, which I’ll use for any performance/evaluation exercises at a later date. Right, let’s see if we find anything interesting in this batch: