TGISVP – H1-2013 Performance

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alpha, Alpha Portfolio, Beta Portfolio, Clontarf Energy, Continental Farmers Group, DCC, Elan Corp, Fastnet Oil & Gas, Glanbia, Greencore Group, Irish shares, Irish value investing, ISEQ, junior resource stocks, muppets, Petroceltic International, Petroneft Resources, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, Smart Alpha Portfolio, Smart Beta Portfolio, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, US Oil & Gas

Time to wrap up the mid-year review(s) – let’s finish with The Great Irish Share Valuation Project. To recap:

– A total of 73 Irish companies are included this year (same as last year – but US Oil & Gas (USOP:G4) & Fastnet Oil & Gas (FAST:LN) were subsequently listed, so I added them later in the year, increasing the 2012 total to 75).

– Each company’s been individually reviewed & valued, some time between Jan & May, and I’ve kept a record of all share prices (at time of evaluation) & price targets to properly assess performance.

– I’ve made no subsequent changes to the file, except: i) to adjust for DCC (DCC:LN) migrating to a London-only listing & for Petroceltic International (PCI:LN) consolidating its shares 1 for 25, and ii) Continental Farmers Group (CFGP:LN) will continue to be included at its GBP 36p takeover price (the Saudi bail-out came in the nick of time, just before the cash ran dry!).

– Since my TGISVP review/valuation phase was spread over 4 1/2 mths, we need to adjust our benchmark (the ISEQ) accordingly. Like last year, I’ll take the mid-point (in terms of companies valued) of this phase – i.e. Feb-25th – as the most appropriate start date for the index.

I’m bemused to see I’ve apparently become more bearish this year! Last year, I was bullish on 48% of all stocks, while this year that’s now dropped to 40%. But consider the unique nature of TGISVP, which includes an extraordinary selection of junior resource stocks, complete with assorted incompetents & cowboys! Not surprisingly, I’m bearish on pretty much all these rubbish stocks – so stripping ’em out, it’s fair to say I remain bullish on Irish stocks. 🙂 OK, perhaps a little less so today, but with the ISEQ up +17.1% in 2012 & another +16.7% this year, that’s no great shocker..!

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TGISVP – Hot & Not, Mid-Year 2013

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Continental Farmers Group, Donegal Creameries, Irish shares, Irish value investing, junior resource stocks, Petroceltic International, Petroneft Resources, portfolio performance, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project

After resisting the lure of reporting quarterly performance at end-March, I’m now left mulling whether I should even report my semi-annual performance(s). Sigh, I probably will… Which is a little silly really, a public (or even private) review of any six month period/return is basically meaningless! Not that I’m complaining, I think you’ll agree the first half of the year treated us all pretty damn well. 🙂 Of course, that cozy warm feeling may simply confirm we’re all addicted to ‘monetary heroin’ now.

Anyway, I noted down quarter-end prices, so why don’t I first do a (brief) post giving you a timely snapshot of current rankings for The Great Irish Share Valuation Project. [For reference, here are my first & last posts in the valuation phase of TGISVP this year].

I’ve updated all share prices, plus some underlying variables (primarily FX rates), as of June-28th. I’ve also reflected the recent 1 for 25 consolidation of Petroceltic International (PCI:LN) shares, and eliminated Continental Farmers Group (CFGP:LN) after its successful takeover in June. At this point, I haven’t otherwise updated/revised any individual company valuations, so if a particular stock grabs your attention please check for subsequent news-flow/results. Of course, you may totally disagree with my valuation(s) anyway – so I’ll provide a complete Excel file below, which you’re welcome to amend as you see fit.

TGISVP – Hot? Not?!

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Alpha Portfolio, Barron's, Beta Portfolio, binary outcomes, Fastnet Oil & Gas, FBD Holdings, garbage stocks, intrinsic value, junior resource stocks, Leverage, Margin of Safety, Petroneft Resources, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, risk management, Smart Alpha Portfolio, Smart Beta Portfolio, stock screener, TGISVP, Total Produce, Trinity Biotech, US Oil & Gas, value investing

In my last post, I was delighted to see the TGISVP Alpha & Beta Portfolios continue to expand their level of out-performance vs. their ISEQ benchmark. Particularly pleasing was the sight of my favourite, the Smart Alpha portfolio, far outpacing the others with a 21.1% YTD absolute return. But we’re still only 9 months into the experiment, so clearly we need a far longer horizon to confirm if this performance edge is sustainable.

It also makes me wonder if there’s a lesson to be learned here..? No, not whether value investing out-performs in the long run – I’m fully convinced of that already! [And if you’re not, please please read some of the numerous papers published on the topic]. But whether a mechanical approach is perhaps better?

Ha! No, I’m certainly not planning on becoming a stock screening convert..! But I wonder: Even if you’re a v competent & disciplined value analyst, even if you’ve conquered much of the fear & greed involved in investing, perhaps that demon mind still trips you up at that v last hurdle, or two..? When you’ve a nice stack of portfolio candidates lined up, why do you then take a shine to some & not to others? Why does one special stock really get your heart racing, far out of proportion to its obvious prospects? Why do you end up triple invested in one stock vs. another, when they both lined up pretty much even-stevens in terms of risk/reward?

TGISVP, Q3 2012 YTD Performance (I)

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Aer Lingus, Alpha Portfolio, Beta Portfolio, Cove Energy, CPL Resources, Datalex, Fastnet Oil & Gas, FBD Holdings, garbage stocks, junior resource stocks, performance appraisal, Petroneft Resources, portfolio performance, Prime Active Capital, Providence Resources, Siteserv, TGISVP, US Oil & Gas, Worldspreads

Now Q3 2012 is over, it’s time to revisit The Great Irish Share Valuation Project. Here’s my H1 2012 performance post, for reference.

First, note there’s been 1 de-listing – we already had the heads-up on it last quarter: Cove Energy (COV:LN) was taken out for GBP 240p in cash per share by PTTEP (PTTEP:TB). A marvelous result for most shareholders, except for a few over-enthusiastic latecomers that bid the shares up to GBP 270p+ in the dying days of a Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB:LN) vs. PTTEP tussle. [I’ll continue to include Cove – at its final GBP 240p value – for performance purposes for the rest of the year].

Note: Q3 2012 YTD performance for each stock is TGISVP specific – that is, performance is measured from the specific date (in Q1) I set a target price for each stock. [Apologies if you’d prefer to see actual YTD performance for all stocks – but I suspect there’d be a high degree of overlap in the winners & losers, anyway].

2012 Baker’s Dozen – More Pie!

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Argo Group, Baker's Dozen, binary outcomes, catalyst, Foo Fighters, FTSE 100, FTSE Eurotop 100, Granville, Hamlet, hedge funds, inflation, ISEQ, junior resource stocks, Livermore Investments, performance appraisal, Petroneft Resources, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, Richland Resources, risk management, S&P 500

Righto, another quarter’s done, time to check in on performance again. First, my Q1 and H1 performance reviews will provide you with some handy background & context. Second, it’s always fun to pose some questions before hitting the stats:

– Of the US/Europe/UK/Ireland, which do you think has had the worst year to date?

– And the best?

– So, did you predict your best stock winner year to date?

– Ever notice how much easier it is to predict your worst stock loser?

– Is there any lesson, or story, attached to your losses?

– Why has the average hedge fund under-performed so badly this year?

Well, hopefully I cover some/all of those questions here..!

Fastnet – What’s the Forecast?

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2P Reserves, Aventine Resources, Bruce Rowan, bubbles, Cathal Friel, Cove Energy, FAST, Fastnet Oil & Gas, Independent Resources, Island Oil & Gas, John Craven, Jubilee Field, junior resource stocks, Kosmos Energy, Michael Nolan, Minco, Minmet, Mizzen Basin, Molly Malone Basin, oil, Oisin Fanning, Orogen Gold, Paul Griffiths, Petroceltic, prospective resources, Raglan Capital, Rathdowney Resources, San Leon Energy, shipping forecast, short sellers, shorting, Sterling Green Group, Terra Energy, TGISVP, Tiger Resource Finance, US Oil & Gas, USOP, value investing

I eyed up US Oil & Gas (USOP) here (‘I swear, yer ‘onor, I wuz just looking…I nevah touched ‘er!‘), and promised to return to Fastnet Oil & Gas (FAST:LN)… Ooh er, collywobbles – what’s he going to say about this one? Well, I really don’t know, we’ll just have to see where this post takes us – a reminder I never have an agenda when taking a first look at a company. My only wish is to find an undervalued & interesting company, regardless of sector or business. That, to me, is sheer bliss..! On the other hand, finding a ridiculously overvalued company is simply a fascinating glimpse of (in?) humanity. Because shorting such a stock would be all too rare for me.

And no, I don’t think shorting stocks is the inverse of good (value) investing. In fact, I can’t emphasize that enough! I believe there are v few investors with the aptitude & fortitude to regularly short stocks successfully. And there’s whole other dimensions to that skill, anyway – as I’ve noted about overvalued stocks:

‘…there’s always a chance, on their journey to oblivion, that they’ll bubble higher & longer than you might ever expect. After all, you can’t analyze irrationality, and you certainly can’t analyze stupidity…’

Right, back to the job at hand: Aah, Fastnet… That really conjures up childhood memories of the shipping forecast. ‘Specially on a stormy night. It’s amazing the drama one could wring from such rigid & clipped broadcasts. Comfortably sprawled in front of a blazing fire – half asleep before bed-time… Drifting away to the cadence of the names – Fastnet, Malin Head, Dogger. Thoughts of far-off barren rocks, mournful lighthouse flashes, giant crashing waves, and lonely fishing boats adrift in the black night, were sure to send a delicious thrill down one’s spine. Seems I’m not the only one who fell under this spell – just take a look here: ‘Influences on Popular Culture’. Here’s another fond tribute... And finally, here’s a marvelous Economist piece on the Fastnet lighthouse.

Stockopedia – Another Good School Report!

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Begbies Traynor, correlation, Facebook, gymkhana, How to Make Money in Value Stocks, IPO, JJB Sports, junior resource stocks, message boards, stock screener, Stockopedia, value investing

I’m pleased to announce you (and some new readers, hopefully) will now be seeing some Wexboy posts syndicated over on Stockopedia! Of course, you’re the very first to find out. Well, after my dear old parents, that is… C’mon, it’s been sooooo long since I could bring home a rosette (look left/scroll down) 🙂 What’s this digital crap anyway, I want the real thing! To add to my dusty gymkhana rosette collection...

Here’s the first syndicated post: Correlation…Schmorrelation!

Uhoh, I forgot there might be comments popping up there… And the first comment’s a goody! Yes, agreed, Begbies Traynor (BEG:LN) management certainly seems pretty clueless – judging from the share price & my own reading to date. But they’ve been cutting a lot of dead wood recently (good restructuring practice, eh? ;-)), so it’s worth a deeper dig to figure out how they’re shaping up now. But I have other UK candidates (in the ‘distressed‘ business) to look over, which I suspect will offer far better operational/financial histories.

Hitting The Century (VII – Natural Resources)

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agri-business, BP, bubbles, correlation, garbage stocks, gold, Howard Marks, idiots, inflation, junior resource stocks, miners, natural resource stocks, oil, Petroneft Resources, QE, quantitative easing, Richland Resources, silver, Statoil, Total

In my recent Inflation post, I elaborated on my conclusion that, contrary to widespread (and my prior) opinion, inflation was likely to prove a fairly distant threat. Despite the smoke rising from the bloody printing presses… And despite the Fed since confirming their long-expected QE III – or should I say: QE Forever, QE Infinity, QE God Fucking Save Us… Take your pick! You know, the mind boggles – how/why on earth does the Fed confidently expect Agency MBS purchases to smoothly flow through into improved labour conditions?!

No real need to revisit my post, just read Howard Marks’ latest instead, which came out a few days later. In his memo, he covers much of the same ground – probably in a far better & more relentless manner… [And apologies if I ramble on: Remember, with this series, my intention isn’t to necessarily write about specific stocks here, old or new. Rather it’s to give you some deeper insight into the thoughts, logic and pros & cons underlying each of my allocations].

The New Vegas: US Oil & Gas (USOP)

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2P Reserves, Brian McDonnell, Caveat Emptor, Chris Comerford, delisting risk, disorderly market, Eblana, Fastnet Oil & Gas, FBD Holdings, GXG Markets, intrinsic value, junior resource stocks, Karim Akrawi, Las Vegas, M&A, Nevada oil & gas, Petroneft Resources, PLUS Markets, prospective resources, TGISVP, US Oil & Gas, USOP

I missed 2 Irish stocks earlier this year for The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (& here’s the latest TGISVP post). The first was Fastnet Oil & Gas plc (FAST:LN), which only IPO’d in June. The second was US Oil & Gas plc (USOP), which was actually suspended at the time (and finally delisted in April)! I must admit, I’ve put off looking at them for the past month or two – TGISVP gave me a real bellyful of junior resource stocks! I wasn’t feeling too hopeful about the analysis & prospects of these candidates either. My bloody bad..! Sorry, Fastnet, right now USOP’s beckoning!

Picture the desert, feel that heat, that blazing sun – you’re just a poor thirsty investor, simply trying to stay alive… You’re on your knees. But wait… What’s that you see? A shimmer, a glint just there on the horizon? You painfully stand, stumble, begin to walk, and then break into a shuffling trot. You begin to hope, against hope – maybe it’s water, an oasis, can it be..?

Nothing else matters, you stagger on as fast as your weakened body allows, and still you see it! That shimmer begins to solidify, begins to seem more real, it even draws closer, maybe just maybe you’ll make it… But suddenly that image, your goal, flickers and changes. You no longer see the water that’s been driving you crazy, that you were almost able to taste in all its cold glorious wonder. But wait, what do you see instead? Yes! Oh yes, it’s far far better, it’s amazing…it’s OIL!!!

AGI Therapeutics – Anatomy of a Takeover (II)

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AGI Therapeutics, binary outcomes, Gross IRR, Gross Return, intangibles, intrinsic value, John Paulson, junior resource stocks, Risk Arbitrage, Warner Chilcott, Warren Buffett

Continued from here. OK, we’ve run through the key components of the AGI Therapeutics (AGI:ID/LN) offer. You now have a pretty good idea of the terms, attractiveness, timeline and likely success of this deal. But how does it stack up from an investment perspective? Well, as I said, let’s not approach this backwards – as with any investment, no matter your excitement or conviction about the company/stock story, intrinsic valuation comes first:

AGI’s most recent balance sheet (Jun-11) is pretty simple – they’ve $9.251 mio of Cash on hand, while Net Payables of about $0.3 mio are offset by a subsequent sale of patents to Warner Chilcott (WCRX:US) for about $0.3 mio also. This sale probably wiped out some/all of the $0.241 mio in recorded Intangibles, and there’s really nothing else to the B/S. btw I tend to ignore balance sheet Goodwill/Intangibles/etc. anyway when calculating Intrinsic Value. You should be able to confirm/calculate the value of intangibles from other sources – like reserve reports, industry comps, superior/sustainable earnings etc. – if you can’t, it’s usually best to ignore these ‘assets‘ (try tell this to your average junior resource company investor, sigh…).