The Great Irish Share Valuation Project – 2014 Portfolio Performance (Part II)

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Aer Lingus Group, Aminex, Connemara Mining Company, Fastnet Oil & Gas, Irish shares, Irish Stock Exchange, Irish value investing, ISEQ, Kenmare Resources, NTR plc, portfolio performance, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, Zamano

Continued from here.

My commentary & analysis of last year’s TGISVP losers & winners may have been meat & veg for some, but let’s kill the suspense & move on to dessert… How did 2014 performance stack up for the TGISVP Portfolios, vs. our ISEQ benchmark? Let’s take a look at the Beta Portfolios first:

[NB: Here’s a reminder of how they were constructed:

TGISVP – Beta Portfolio:  Assume an investor goes equally long all 27 stocks with positive Upside Potential (e.g. invests EUR 1 in each stock, for a total of EUR 27). The other 54 stocks, identified as neutral (2) or over-valued (52), are ignored. The portfolio return contribution from each stock is simply its Gain/(Loss)%/27.

TGISVP – Smart Beta Portfolio:  Stocks are chosen on the same basis as the Beta Portfolio, with one twist: All 27 stocks are divided into quartiles – assume EUR 4 is invested in each top quartile stock, 3 EUR in the next quartile stocks, down to EUR 1 in the bottom quartile stocks (for a total of EUR 70). This preserves diversification, but focuses the portfolio on stocks with the most Upside Potential.]

[NB: Again, see my last post – the appropriate benchmark return here is 4.7%, reflecting the ISEQ’s performance from March-30th ’til year-end. For reference, calendar year ISEQ performance was 15.1%].

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2014 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part VIII)

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Ardmore Shipping, Chiquita Brands International, CRH, Fyffes, IMC Exploration Group, Irish shares, Irish Stock Exchange, Irish value investing, ISEQ, Kenmare Resources, Keywords Studios, Mincon Group, Paddy Power, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, US Oil & Gas

Continued from here:

[NB: Worth revisiting Part I if you’re a new reader, or you’d like a refresher on TGISVP & my approach to the whole project.]

Company:   Fyffes

Prior Post(s):   2012 & 2013

Ticker:  FFY:ID

Price:   EUR 1.27

Seems like I picked the wrong horse, choosing Total Produce (TOT:ID) instead of Fyffes…but I can live with that, you can’t pick ’em all & TOT’s been good to me. But maybe not good enough – because FFY popped 46% in early March, on the news of a definitive merger with Chiquita Brands International (CQB:US). [CQB also closed 11% higher on the day – since then, on average, each stock’s held onto its gains]. I think we can comfortably assume the deal will go ahead (unscathed):  Shareholders love it, the DoJ doesn’t give a damn what happens in Europe, and the Irish Competition Authority is presumably asleep at the wheel, as per usual. [A study confirmed the ICA has a rejection rate of just 0.7%!] Anyway, what deal dissenter would relish the possibility of mercenaries dropping in for tea & a little chat..?! 😉 At this point, let’s just rely on the merger terms for our valuation:

USD 12.25 CQB Share Price * 0.1567 CQB Share (per 1 FFY Share) / 1.3841 EUR/USD = EUR 1.39

Fyffes is marginally undervalued – it offers an attractive arbitrage for the big boys, or a cheap entry price if you’re interested in going long the new ChiquitaFyffes.

Price Target:   EUR 1.39

Upside/(Downside):   9%

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2013 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part I)

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Aminex, Aryzta, Connemara Mining, Continental Farmers Group, Independent News & Media, Irish shares, Irish value investing, iShares MSCI Ireland ETF, Kenmare Resources, Kerry Group, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, Tullow Oil, UTV Media

I finished my last post with a question: ‘So, shall we continue with this TGISVP experiment in 2013..?!‘

Despite the relative comment silence, an emphatic ‘Yes!‘ appears to be in order. The success of the series was evidenced by the strong surge in Q1-2012 page views, and the significant level of out-performance enjoyed by each of the TGISVP Alpha & Beta Portfolios last year. I’d first recommend a quick review of my first TGISVP post last year as a primer, but we need to cover some important points here:

– I’m planning to (briefly) review & set a price target for all Irish companies.

– An Irish company is any company which conducts a major portion of its business in Ireland, is (genuinely) headquartered in Ireland, and/or whose management/directors/shareholders/history are predominantly Irish.

– Sure, it would be marvelous if I covered all companies simultaneously. But life (& investing) are never so convenient… I reckon there’s about 70 companies to cover, so I’ll give myself an end-March completion deadline.

– This is TGISVP-Yr II, so perhaps this will all move along much quicker this year – who knows?! To add some spice, I plan to cover companies in random order this time ’round.

The Great Irish Share Valuation Project III

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Allied Irish Banks, Bank of Ireland, First Derivatives, ICON, IFG Group, Independent News & Media, Irish Life & Permanent, ISEQ 20 ETF, Karelian Diamond Resources, Kenmare Resources, Kerry Group, singing dancing duck, Wile E. Coyote

Continued from here:

Right, let’s work our way through another batch of 10 stock valuations. As usual, I’ve updated market prices (and any relevant FX rates) for all stocks covered to date, so remember that each new file published will be a dynamic snapshot of each stock’s upside/downside potential:

The Great Irish Share Valuation Project III     (xlsx file)

The Great Irish Share Valuation Project III     (xls file)

ICON (ICLR:US):   ICON’s at a very interesting point right now. In 2009, they pretty much hit the wall, probably a reflection of the mid-life crisis that most of the major pharma companies are suffering right now. This is a pattern I’ve seen before – and forget to check up on nearly every bloody time (and, of course, it’s far easier to spot with hindsight!):