• ABOUT
  • CONTACT
  • DISCLAIMER!!!

Wexboy

~ A Value Investing Blog

Wexboy

Tag Archives: Livermore Investments

Heading Into 2013…

04 Friday Jan 2013

Posted by Wexboy in Uncategorized

≈ 5 Comments

Tags

Alternative Asset Opportunities, Argo Group, Asta Funding, Avangardco, correlation, EIIB, FBD Holdings, Fortress Investment Group, JPMorgan Russian Securities, KWG Kommunale Wohnen, Livermore Investments, Margin of Safety, Petroneft Resources, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, Richland Resources, shareholder activism, Sirius Real Estate, Total Produce, Trinity Biotech, Universe Group, Vietnam Opportunity Fund

There was a gratifyingly large surge of page views yesterday checking in on my 2012 Portfolio Performance! I’m suitably humbled by the attention – gulp, makes me wonder what challenges 2013 will throw up?! Hopefully the blog’s sparked a few decent ideas & stock picks for you in the last year or so, and you’re pleased with the progress of your own portfolio in 2012. It’s certainly been rewarding for me – most obviously in terms of improving my investment focus & analysis, but also in terms of the constant stream of questions, challenges, feedback, gossip, ideas, etc. from blog readers.

As a result, I now feel somewhat honour-bound to cough up some kind of 2013 Portfolio. I should immediately flag that some of you may find this a bit of a cop-out… 😦 But, in my defence, let me say:

– The start of a new year really means little to me, I don’t suddenly discover I have whole new batches of stocks to buy & sell!

– I rarely write about stocks I don’t own. This is pretty deliberate – my intention was never to simply fill up blank space with an idea each day/each week. I think people can really only judge your level of analysis & conviction against whether you actually own a stock – and, of course, by how much stock you own!

– I also don’t write about stocks I track, or discard, very much. First, mostly because they’re far too numerous! Second, I’m not sure I’d always manage a proper (in-depth) write-up about such stock(s). And third, I’ve sometimes tracked stocks every single day for literally years on end before buying – how often do you want to hear about them?!

Continue reading →

Advertisement

Argo – Escape from an Evil State!

16 Friday Nov 2012

Posted by Wexboy in Uncategorized

≈ 11 Comments

Tags

% of AUM, activist investors, alternative assets, AREO, ARGO, Argo Group, Argo Real Estate Opportunities Fund, Colony Financial, distressed assets, emerging markets, European sovereign debt crisis, Fortress Investment Group, intrinsic value, Investor Relations, Kyriakos Rialas, Livermore Investments, Mello Central, Price/Cash, Rialas brothers, share buyback, special situations, sub-advisory, The Argo Fund, Universe Group

OK, sorry to disappoint… This definitely isn’t a review of Ben Affleck’s new movie ‘Argo’! [I haven’t seen it yet, but it’s on my list – the reviews are uniformly good, and Affleck displayed a sure hand with ‘The Town’.]

No, this post is about Argo Group Ltd. (ARGO:LN), whose share price is also trapped in a rather evil state… Specifically, the price has steadily declined 35% in recent months to GBP 10.125p – when the company is profitable & has net cash/investments on hand of GBP 20.9p per share! Operational execution & performance ultimately offer the best escape route for Argo. [I’m delighted to see Argo has now launched a new liquid emerging market debt fund. This offers attractive exposure, I’m sure it will clock up a good performance, but real success will come down to the level of fund-raising that’s achieved.] But there a number of additional actions & strategies that may offer considerable assistance in making this escape. Here’s a copy of a recent letter I sent to Kyriakos Rialas, CEO of Argo:

‘November 07, 2012

FAO:    Kyriakos Rialas, CEO

Cc:       Andreas Rialas, CIO

Cc:       Michael Kloter, Chairman

Argo Group Limited

33-37 Athol Street

Douglas

Isle of Man

IM1 1LB

Continue reading →

Wexboy – A Birthday Post!

13 Tuesday Nov 2012

Posted by Wexboy in Uncategorized

≈ 12 Comments

Tags

Argo Group, birthday, blog traffic, bloggers, Blogroll, Fifty Shades of Grey, German property, Google, Hitler video, Interactive Investor, Kim Kardashian, Livermore Investments, meme, Millenials, pdosullivan, Petroneft Resources, pretty panties, Richard Beddard, sincere thanks, Sirius Real Estate, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, Trinity Biotech, UK Value Investor, US Oil & Gas, USOP, valueandopportunity

Wexboy reached the grand old age of one last Friday! I’m so excited I might just sick up over your shoulder! So – where were the birthday wishes? The birthday cards (c’mon, they need the biz)? The birthday gifts? Most of all, where was my bloody birthday stripper?!

Not a bad little milestone to reach. I’ve heard the average blog never makes it past the first post or two, let alone hurdle that major 3-4 month hump. Welcome to the Millenial generation, I guess. Investment (& finance) blogs appear to last a little longer, but it seems like a majority of them still go dark within a year. Blogging is definitely a pretty relentless pursuit:

It demands time, sometimes a lot of it… But most people have an actual life. Blogging will ultimately fall by the wayside, unless you figure out how to embed it into your life in a way that’s personally useful, interesting & (most of all) rewarding. Of course, most web blogs offer nothing of the sort! But that’s the beauty of investment blogs (and likely explains their longer lifespan) – they actually possess the potential to be genuinely rewarding for both writer & readers.

An investment blog also demands brain power, or at least brain engagement. If you want to do it seriously, it requires copious amounts of research, fact-checking, persuasion, debate, cognitive dissonance, and contemplation. A bit like investing itself, really! Most other blogs appear to require the opposite – but perhaps that’s just my jaundiced eye? 😉 I’d certainly be desperate to disengage my brain if I was writing about the likes of Kim Kardashian, and her bikini waxing habits…

Continue reading →

2012 Baker’s Dozen – More Pie!

01 Monday Oct 2012

Posted by Wexboy in Uncategorized

≈ 3 Comments

Tags

Argo Group, Baker's Dozen, binary outcomes, catalyst, Foo Fighters, FTSE 100, FTSE Eurotop 100, Granville, Hamlet, hedge funds, inflation, ISEQ, junior resource stocks, Livermore Investments, performance appraisal, Petroneft Resources, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, Richland Resources, risk management, S&P 500

Righto, another quarter’s done, time to check in on performance again. First, my Q1 and H1 performance reviews will provide you with some handy background & context. Second, it’s always fun to pose some questions before hitting the stats:

– Of the US/Europe/UK/Ireland, which do you think has had the worst year to date?

– And the best?

– So, did you predict your best stock winner year to date?

– Ever notice how much easier it is to predict your worst stock loser?

– Is there any lesson, or story, attached to your losses?

– Why has the average hedge fund under-performed so badly this year?

Well, hopefully I cover some/all of those questions here..!

Continue reading →

Livermore Investments (II)

10 Friday Aug 2012

Posted by Wexboy in Uncategorized

≈ 2 Comments

Tags

catalyst, delisting risk, intrinsic value, investment companies, Livermore Investments, MBO, NAV discount, Oddball Stocks, Owner-Operator, portfolio allocation, principal-agent problem, Richard Beddard, risk management, share buyback

Continued from here.

…We also have the elephant in the room – insider ownership! With the share buybacks, insiders now own 84.6% of Livermore! Gulp…

Jesus! Investors would normally be diving for the exits, at any price, based on the potential de-listing threat this represents… LIV’s actually defied this by marching ever higher. So much so, LIV was recently forced to announce they knew of no non-public reason for the sharp price increase (22% in a single day!). Was this sharp jump the drying up of supply in the face of share buybacks, an abrupt switch in market-maker/investor sentiment, or on the back of a genuine market rumour? Well, the takeover of an investment company by management is relatively rare… And an actual de-listing rumour usually seems to prompt selling, not buying, as it appears to terrify most investors…

Continue reading →

Livermore Investments (I)

09 Thursday Aug 2012

Posted by Wexboy in Uncategorized

≈ 4 Comments

Tags

activist investors, Baker's Dozen, CLOs, closed-end funds, delisting risk, Everest Capital, intrinsic value, investment companies, Leverage, Livermore Investments, NAV discount, Net LTV, Owner-Operator, principal-agent problem, private equity funds, real estate, safe-havens, share buyback, TER

Livermore Investments Group Ltd. (LIV:LN) is one of my 2012 Baker’s Dozen stock picks. And doing v nicely too…up +79% YTD! This post isn’t just specifically about Livermore – LIV also offers great perspective on owner-operators, share buybacks & shareholder value. Oh, and – shhh, draw the blinds – I’ll whisper it: De-listings...

LIV is a London-listed (closed-end) investment company. Its portfolio is focused on 3 different investment areas:

i) Real Estate:   The major holding is $38.2 mio (net of related debt) invested in Wyler Park, a commercial/residential Swiss property. It’s fully let, on a gross 5.1% rental yield, with development potential for another 37% of floor space. The other significant investment is $14.7 mio of convertible debt in SRS Charminar, an Indian real estate company. Unfortunately, the stake’s been subject to long-running litigation. But with ample initial over-collateralization, and an agreed settlement this year, continuing uncertainty’s now hopefully related to timing & expenses, rather than recovery value. Net of interest rate swaps, total net property investment is $45.9 mio, or about 32% of NAV.

Continue reading →

Chasing Some Dividend Tail (III)..?

01 Wednesday Aug 2012

Posted by Wexboy in Uncategorized

≈ 8 Comments

Tags

Autozone, Bernie Madoff, Big Ang, Character Group, dividend coverage, dividend yield, enhanced EPS/NAV, gold, income/dividend bubble, investment companies, JAKKS Pacific, Liquidations, Livermore Investments, M&A, share buyback, tender offer, trading sardines, wind-down

Continued from here. OK, so dividends kinda suck…but what’s the alternative? Well, let’s tackle that from the corporate perspective first:

– Obviously, share buybacks (and/or tenders & capital returns) are generally a far more tax-efficient means of distribution to shareholders. They enhance earnings, or significantly increase NAV/book value. [Just look at the amazing run on Autozone (AZO:US) – yes, they’ve had great execution, but much of its performance is down to aggressive/sustained stock buybacks]. It also permits management to be far smarter & more opportunistic in their distributions, and their response to share price volatility.

– Just as important, it frees management of the potentially absurd strait-jacket of maintaining an inappropriate dividend – which, in extremis, leads to management idiotically borrowing just to fund a (tax-inefficient) dividend. On occasion, this is exactly the point where management tips over from ‘gently deceiving‘ shareholders into downright criminal/accounting fraud…

Continue reading →

Happy New Year! – A (Baker’s) Dozen for 2012

30 Friday Dec 2011

Posted by Wexboy in Uncategorized

≈ 11 Comments

Tags

Argo Group, Asta Funding, Avangardco, Colony Financial, Cresud, Dhir India, EIIB, FBD Holdings, Livermore Investments, pdosullivan, Petroneft Resources, Sirius Real Estate, Total Produce, Trinity Biotech, Vietnam Opportunity Fund

Philip O’Sullivan kicked us all off here with his list of picks for 2012, and so far I’ve seen John Kingham and Mark Carter join in with their contributions here. Note John can only win half of the (non-existent!) prize since he came up with 2 lists…

I struggled with the idea a little myself – I’d far prefer to write 1,200 words about 1 stock than to write 1 list, haha! I also dread seeing shoot-for-the-moon lists (congrats so far, chaps) stuffed full of triple leverage ETFs and penny dreadfuls – not much use to any of us in the real world.

Continue reading →

Enter email address to track this blog by email.

Join 2,326 other subscribers

Wexboy on Twitter:

  • NEW Blog Post: FY-2022 Portfolio Performance & Review… $REC.L $KR1.AQ $GOOGL $VOF.L $TFG.AS $DQ7A.IR $SAGCV.HE… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 1 hour ago
  • NEW BLOG POST: FY-2022 Portfolio Performance & Review… …Post-Pandemic Hangover: wexboy.wordpress.com/2023/01/31/202… $REC.L… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 10 hours ago
  • Nah, you’re crying… 🥹 …the Light Balance Kids from #Ukraine win a Golden Buzzer: m.youtube.com/watch?v=lpLfyR… 18 hours ago
  • If credit card co’s/fees disappeared overnight, all the bars, cafes, restaurants & stores wd immediately drop their… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 18 hours ago
Follow @Wexboy_Value

Wexboy Top Posts

  • 2022...Post-Pandemic Hangover
  • KR1 plc...The #Crypto #Alpha Bet
  • 2021...Wow, Another Crazy (Good) Year!
  • NTR plc - Breezin' Right Along...
  • A Letter to the CEO (& Board) of European Islamic Investment Bank

Wexboy Archives

  • January 2023
  • January 2022
  • November 2021
  • July 2021
  • January 2021
  • November 2020
  • July 2020
  • January 2020
  • December 2019
  • July 2019
  • January 2019
  • July 2018
  • May 2018
  • February 2018
  • January 2018
  • September 2017
  • August 2017
  • July 2017
  • May 2017
  • April 2017
  • March 2017
  • February 2017
  • January 2017
  • December 2016
  • November 2016
  • October 2016
  • August 2016
  • July 2016
  • June 2016
  • May 2016
  • April 2016
  • March 2016
  • February 2016
  • January 2016
  • December 2015
  • November 2015
  • October 2015
  • September 2015
  • August 2015
  • July 2015
  • June 2015
  • May 2015
  • April 2015
  • March 2015
  • February 2015
  • January 2015
  • December 2014
  • November 2014
  • October 2014
  • September 2014
  • August 2014
  • July 2014
  • June 2014
  • May 2014
  • April 2014
  • March 2014
  • February 2014
  • January 2014
  • December 2013
  • November 2013
  • October 2013
  • September 2013
  • August 2013
  • July 2013
  • June 2013
  • May 2013
  • April 2013
  • March 2013
  • February 2013
  • January 2013
  • December 2012
  • November 2012
  • October 2012
  • September 2012
  • August 2012
  • July 2012
  • June 2012
  • May 2012
  • April 2012
  • March 2012
  • February 2012
  • January 2012
  • December 2011
  • November 2011

Wexboy Categories

  • Uncategorized

Blogroll

  • Above Average Odds Investing
  • Alpha Vulture
  • CantEatValue
  • Cheapskate Investor
  • csinvesting
  • Deep Value Investments
  • Element Value Investor
  • Expecting Value
  • Harriman Intelligence
  • Insider Monkey
  • Interactive Investor Blog
  • Investor Soiree
  • Long Term Value Blog
  • Mallet's Conspiracy
  • Mark Carter
  • Oddball Stocks
  • Philip O'Sullivan's Market Musings
  • Ragnar is a Pirate
  • Reminiscences of a Stockblogger
  • ShareProphets
  • Simple Value Investing
  • The UK Stock Market Almanac
  • Tom Winnifrith
  • UK Value Investor
  • Value Investing France
  • Value Investing Journey
  • Value Uncovered
  • valueandopportunity
  • valuestockinquisition
  • ValueWalk
  • Valuhunteruk

Meta

  • Register
  • Log in
  • Entries feed
  • Comments feed
  • WordPress.com

Blog at WordPress.com.

Privacy & Cookies: This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this website, you agree to their use.
To find out more, including how to control cookies, see here: Cookie Policy
  • Follow Following
    • Wexboy
    • Join 2,326 other followers
    • Already have a WordPress.com account? Log in now.
    • Wexboy
    • Customize
    • Follow Following
    • Sign up
    • Log in
    • Report this content
    • View site in Reader
    • Manage subscriptions
    • Collapse this bar