2014 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part VII)

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Botswana Diamonds, C&C Group, Formation Group, Irish Continental Group, Irish shares, Irish Stock Exchange, Irish value investing, ISEQ, Kingspan Group, Minco, Orogen Gold, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, Tullow Oil

Continued from here:

[NB: Worth revisiting Part I if you’re a new reader, or you’d like a refresher on TGISVP & my approach to the whole project.]

Company:   Tullow Oil

Prior Post(s):   2012 & 2013

Ticker:  TLW:LN

Price:   GBP 800p

Well, I’ve definitely offended TLW shareholders in the past two years – particularly in 2012, when I predicted a 339p price target (vs. a share price of 1543p at the time). WTF..?! But I must admit, their response was far more dignified than that of the junior resource hoi polloi – clearly a better class of people. [The other day, I was amused to read about a US small-cap CEO lamenting his shareholder base used to ‘include those nice guys at Fidelity’, but now it was ‘just guys in muscle tees from Jersey!’] Hmmm, maybe they just weren’t taking me too seriously? But at this point, I bet they’re taking their bloody losses seriously. 😉 Ouch, down nearly 50% in the past two years (after bouncing from a recent 736p low).

Well, Tullow obviously needs to pick up its game on the exploration front, results were decidedly mixed in 2013. [It’s interesting to see how exploration drilling success (or failure) is still such a primary share price driver for a company the size of Tullow]. At this point, continued exploration success in Kenya has become increasingly important for the company, with estimated gross recoverable resources of 600 million boe (potentially a billion boe plus) to tap. I suspect we’ll also see a continuing secondary focus on Atlantic Margins exploration, but other non-core exploration (& mature production) assets will be likely disposal targets. Which explains the latest annual report cover: Africa’s Leading Independent Oil Company – current production in West Africa, future potential in East Africa.

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2013 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Final – Part XII)

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Buchans Minerals Corp, C&C Group, Donegal Creameries, Irish shares, Irish value investing, Kedco, Minco, Ovoca Gold, Petroneft Resources, Polymetal Intl., TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, Xtierra

Continued from here. This is my final post in the valuation phase of TGISVP – see here for my first 2013 TGISVP post. I’ve only 5 companies left to cover, including a new one suggested by a reader (Kedco, thanks!). [I rejected another – One 51 – as it isn’t listed on a regular exchange]. Let’s begin:

Company:   Ovoca Gold

Prior Post:   Here

Ticker:   OVG:LN

Price:   GBP 11p

What a difference a year makes, eh!? Last year, I was pretty bullish on Ovoca & its story (perhaps less so on its valuation, but I still saw a reasonable 39% upside). Wow, I even made a $2,000 call on gold (not that I was interested in participating)… However, a couple of months later, I rapidly lost interest in Ovoca as the Russians took over, dodgy loans started popping up on the balance sheet, and their American CEO abruptly resigned & sold his stake. It also made me realize Ovoca isn’t remotely an Irish company any more – in fact, I seriously considered kicking it out of TGISVP. But it’s still an Irish-listed company – so let’s hold our noses & take a closer look.

Fastnet – What’s the Forecast?

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2P Reserves, Aventine Resources, Bruce Rowan, bubbles, Cathal Friel, Cove Energy, FAST, Fastnet Oil & Gas, Independent Resources, Island Oil & Gas, John Craven, Jubilee Field, junior resource stocks, Kosmos Energy, Michael Nolan, Minco, Minmet, Mizzen Basin, Molly Malone Basin, oil, Oisin Fanning, Orogen Gold, Paul Griffiths, Petroceltic, prospective resources, Raglan Capital, Rathdowney Resources, San Leon Energy, shipping forecast, short sellers, shorting, Sterling Green Group, Terra Energy, TGISVP, Tiger Resource Finance, US Oil & Gas, USOP, value investing

I eyed up US Oil & Gas (USOP) here (‘I swear, yer ‘onor, I wuz just looking…I nevah touched ‘er!‘), and promised to return to Fastnet Oil & Gas (FAST:LN)… Ooh er, collywobbles – what’s he going to say about this one? Well, I really don’t know, we’ll just have to see where this post takes us – a reminder I never have an agenda when taking a first look at a company. My only wish is to find an undervalued & interesting company, regardless of sector or business. That, to me, is sheer bliss..! On the other hand, finding a ridiculously overvalued company is simply a fascinating glimpse of (in?) humanity. Because shorting such a stock would be all too rare for me.

And no, I don’t think shorting stocks is the inverse of good (value) investing. In fact, I can’t emphasize that enough! I believe there are v few investors with the aptitude & fortitude to regularly short stocks successfully. And there’s whole other dimensions to that skill, anyway – as I’ve noted about overvalued stocks:

‘…there’s always a chance, on their journey to oblivion, that they’ll bubble higher & longer than you might ever expect. After all, you can’t analyze irrationality, and you certainly can’t analyze stupidity…’

Right, back to the job at hand: Aah, Fastnet… That really conjures up childhood memories of the shipping forecast. ‘Specially on a stormy night. It’s amazing the drama one could wring from such rigid & clipped broadcasts. Comfortably sprawled in front of a blazing fire – half asleep before bed-time… Drifting away to the cadence of the names – Fastnet, Malin Head, Dogger. Thoughts of far-off barren rocks, mournful lighthouse flashes, giant crashing waves, and lonely fishing boats adrift in the black night, were sure to send a delicious thrill down one’s spine. Seems I’m not the only one who fell under this spell – just take a look here: ‘Influences on Popular Culture’. Here’s another fond tribute... And finally, here’s a marvelous Economist piece on the Fastnet lighthouse.

The Great Irish Share Valuation Project X

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Fiomi Diagnostics, Galantas Gold, George Soros, John Teeling, Lisa B, Minco, NAMA, New Ireland Fund, Norish, O'Donoghues, Oisin Fanning, Orogen Gold, Papua Mining, Papua New Guinea, Petrel Resources, Phillip Goldstein, Rathdowney Resources, Raven Russia, Real Estate Opportunities, San Leon Energy, shorting, Strongbow Capital, TGISVP, Trinity Biotech

Continued from here:

OK, we’re in the home straight now, at least within the original valuation stage of TGISVP. Eight companies left, mostly junior resource companies, so that should be fun..! I’ve booted Real Estate Opportunities (REO:LN), as trading was suspended in January. And please, let’s not bother talking about NAMA, court cases etc… For years now, REO’s had terrible corporate governance, far too much leverage, and pretty much promised to totally fuck investors... And so it has come to pass, and shareholders don’t even have a luxury Moroccan get-away to show for it…

I’ve no desire to short shares usually – a value mindset is far too dangerous an attribute to possess if you want to play that game. But watching REO fly far too close to the sun, and not even notice its wings were melting, I just got far too itchy… I really wasn’t worried what the price was – GBP 20p, 5p, 3p…who cares when it’s going to zero anyway. Unfortunately, I couldn’t find a spread-better who would deal in it – even Worldspreads (and their zero spreads…), if I recall..!? Perhaps I didn’t ring around/push hard enough? If anybody managed to do this successfully, I’d love to hear more details?

The Great Irish Share Valuation Project IX

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2P Reserves, Alkermes, Amarin, Anadarko, Andor Technology, Botswana Diamonds, Circle Oil, Clontarf Energy, Connemara Mining, Cooley Distillery, Cove Energy, Dragon Oil, Escher Group, Galantas Gold, Interior Services Group, iShares MSCI Ireland ETF, Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Jim Beam, John Teeling, Kentz, Minco, Ovoca Gold, Petrel Resources, PTT, Royal Dutch Shell, Siteserv, TGISVP, Tullow Oil, USPS, Worldspreads, Xstrata, Xtierra

Continued from here.

As I’ve mentioned, we’ve another 20 odd non-ISEQ listed Irish stocks to work through still. I should first note I’ve eliminated Alkermes (ALKS:US) and Amarin (AMRN:US) (and Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ:US) never even made the cut*). Clearly, an Ireland HQ is particularly attractive for pharma companies! Any reader care to enlighten us further..? I wasn’t fooled by this shell game, but they had some Irish directors/management/locations, so I planned to include them in TGISVP. Now I look again, their Irish ‘representation‘ is pretty small, and sure to get even smaller… So they’re out – unless someone wants to email and persuade me otherwise!?

I’ve also revised valuations for Worldspreads (WSPR:LN) and Siteserv (SSV:LN) – in fact, they kind of swap places in the rankings! I was briefly commenting here on both companies, and their respective scandals, and it got a little out of control..! I had to upgrade to a separate article. Note I’m keeping a file of all original share prices and valuations, which I’ll use for any performance/evaluation exercises at a later date. Right, let’s see if we find anything interesting in this batch:

How About Another Catalyst? (Part VII)

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activist investors, Clearance Capital, DCD Media, EIIB, HBG Holdings, Joe Lewis, Laxey, Leo Fund Managers, Max Property, Minco, Net LTV, Nick Leslau, Principle Capital, Quintain Estates, Sirius, stockbrokers selling sandwiches, Taube Hodson Stonex, Terra Catalyst, Timeweave, Weiss

Continued from here:

In my previous post, I highlighted over a dozen listed activist investor vehicles (some at v interesting discounts) you can invest in. Additionally, you might also want to look at individual company situations – as I commented about activists: ‘Use them wisely (and profitably) to cherry pick and/or endorse your conviction stocks.’ Here are some interesting examples:

Timeweave (TMW:LN):   I’ve written here about Timeweave, which has Joe Lewis on board with 29.99%, with another 5% in the hands of Leo Fund Managers. TMW has a steady business, pots of cash, and a whopping 10.4% dividend yield. If you strip out cash, it’s actually on a 4.7 P/E! Despite all this, it can’t seem to get any respect – take a look at the share price. But we all know shares like this, and wonder when we’ll see a decent return…