2014 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part VIII)

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Ardmore Shipping, Chiquita Brands International, CRH, Fyffes, IMC Exploration Group, Irish shares, Irish Stock Exchange, Irish value investing, ISEQ, Kenmare Resources, Keywords Studios, Mincon Group, Paddy Power, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, US Oil & Gas

Continued from here:

[NB: Worth revisiting Part I if you’re a new reader, or you’d like a refresher on TGISVP & my approach to the whole project.]

Company:   Fyffes

Prior Post(s):   2012 & 2013

Ticker:  FFY:ID

Price:   EUR 1.27

Seems like I picked the wrong horse, choosing Total Produce (TOT:ID) instead of Fyffes…but I can live with that, you can’t pick ’em all & TOT’s been good to me. But maybe not good enough – because FFY popped 46% in early March, on the news of a definitive merger with Chiquita Brands International (CQB:US). [CQB also closed 11% higher on the day – since then, on average, each stock’s held onto its gains]. I think we can comfortably assume the deal will go ahead (unscathed):  Shareholders love it, the DoJ doesn’t give a damn what happens in Europe, and the Irish Competition Authority is presumably asleep at the wheel, as per usual. [A study confirmed the ICA has a rejection rate of just 0.7%!] Anyway, what deal dissenter would relish the possibility of mercenaries dropping in for tea & a little chat..?! 😉 At this point, let’s just rely on the merger terms for our valuation:

USD 12.25 CQB Share Price * 0.1567 CQB Share (per 1 FFY Share) / 1.3841 EUR/USD = EUR 1.39

Fyffes is marginally undervalued – it offers an attractive arbitrage for the big boys, or a cheap entry price if you’re interested in going long the new ChiquitaFyffes.

Price Target:   EUR 1.39

Upside/(Downside):   9%

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2013 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part IV)

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Conroy Gold & Natural Resources, DCC, FBD Holdings, Irish shares, Irish value investing, Kingspan, New Ireland Fund, Paddy Power, Pageant Holdings, Papua Mining, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, Zamano

Continued from here. If you’re only joining the series now, I recommend you first read my first TGISVP post this year. And so, without further ado, let’s dive straight into my next (random) bunch of Irish stocks:

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Company:   New Ireland Fund

Prior Post:   Here

Ticker:   IRL:US

Price:   USD 9.919

The New Ireland Fund is the only closed-end fund now investing in Irish shares. [Hopefully, when general Irish sentiment is sufficiently improved, Gervais Williams might see fit to launch a new Irish investment trust]. The share’s made decent progress in the past year, slightly exceeding my price target. This was really due to NAV appreciation, however, as the NAV discount remained steady around 12%. With Phillip Goldstein, of Bulldog Investors, selling much of his 13% stake in the past year, that’s a pretty creditable performance.

The Great Irish Share Valuation Project V

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Better Capital, Dart Group, FL Partners, Irish Continental, Jon Moulton, Marketspreads, Paddy Power, Pageant Holdings, Petroneft Resources, Ryanair, Siteserv, Smurfit Kappa, TGISVP, Total Produce, Tullow Oil, TVC Holdings, United Drug, UTV Media, Worldspreads, Zamano

Continued from here:

Before tackling the next batch of stocks, some readers may want to revisit my first TGISVP post. This project’s not about doing a detailed writeup/valuation on each stock. Sure, I spend ample time on each stock (on a best efforts basis)**, but less than if I were making an investment and/or doing a detailed writeup. That’s why I label these rough and ready valuations! On average, yes I’d expect detailed and rough & ready valuations to be similar, but ‘average‘ is key here..! Take a closer look at any company, and my new valuation could be (possibly significantly) higher, lower or unchanged vs. my original valuation.

What this project is designed to do: i) Illustrate the wide variety of valuation assumptions/approaches that can be applied depending on each individual company/situation, and ii) provide a cheatsheet to highlight the potentially best (and worst!) Irish stocks, on an absolute (or relative) basis, that may merit further research and potential purchase/sale.

The Great Irish Share Valuation Project IV

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Atlantic Resources, Austevoll, Continental Farmers Group, Hoarders, Independent News & Media, Limited Brands, Merrion Pharm, Origin Enterprises, Ormonde Mining, Ovoca Gold, Paddy Power, Petroceltic, Petroneft Resources, Polymetal, Prime Active Capital, Providence Resources, Readymix, Ryanair, TGISVP

Continued from here:

OK, time to tackle another batch of 10 Irish stocks. First, let me insert the Excel files. Again, all market prices (and FX rates) are updated, so this is a live snapshot of all stocks covered to date (with each stock’s upside/downside potential also recalculated vs. its valuation).

As I’ve mentioned before, please feel free to provide your own Price Targets on the Template sheet – it would be greatly appreciated by me, and many of my readers. If you disagree with some of my valuations, this is a great way to express yourself! I think we can all learn a lot more from divergent rather than convergent views on stocks..! Here are full notes/instructions if you wish to submit any Price Targets.