TGISVP – One Last Yr-End Snapshot

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Donegal Investment Group, Irish shares, Irish Stock Exchange, Irish value investing, ISEQ, NTR plc, Petroneft Resources, REACT Energy, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, US Oil & Gas, Zamano

Now we have 2014 closing prices, let’s begin the New Year with The Great Irish Share Valuation Project: As you survey your year-end portfolio (and ponder potential 2015 buys & sells), an updated Irish stock ranking might prove useful – in terms of current share price vs. my TGISVP target price (i.e. current Upside Potential).

Since completing my usual valuation phase (as of end-May), I’ve added just one new stock write-up (NTR plc) & updated three stock valuations – Petroneft Resources (PTR:LN), Prime Active Capital (PACC:ID) & Fyffes (FFY:ID) – therefore, please be aware target prices in this post are now up to 11 months old. So while intrinsic valuations mostly tend to change quite gradually, pay close attention to any subsequent news & results (and possible valuation implications) – and, notably, to the potential impact(s) of the H2-2014 collapse in the Brent/WTI oil price. [Though let’s not overestimate this factor…I’m always amused by muppets who fondly entertain the notion a gyrating oil price is somehow relevant to the actual prospects of their favourite (but hopeless) junior resource stock!?]. And while we’re at it, I should also highlight our Irish stock universe is now down to 77 listings, after four H2-2014 market exits:

– Kentz Corp (KENZ:LN) was taken out by SNC-Lavalin Group. This acquisition was already locked down by the time the oil price started to slide (Petroceltic International wasn’t so lucky…), so this ultimately turned out to be a beautifully timed deal (and at a beautiful price & premium) for KENZ shareholders.

– TVC Holdings (TVCH:ID) distributed its stake in UTV Media (UTV:LN) to shareholders, and delisted shortly thereafter to continue its residual wind-down in private.

– REACT Energy (REAC:LN) has been suspended, pending clarification of the company’s financial (i.e. funding) position. That’s a shame – REAC’s yet another potentially good/great business undermined by insufficient funding. [I did see upside potential for REAC, in asset terms, but warned ‘Of course, the big problem here still is funding’]. This is a common hand-to-mouth complaint for many small(er) companies, but unacceptable when it comes to public companies – it seems an obvious fiduciary duty for management to scale (back) operating & capital expenditure plans, if necessary, to match the funding their company actually has available.

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TGISVP – An Updated Snapshot

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Donegal Investment Group, Fyffes, Irish shares, Irish Stock Exchange, Irish value investing, ISEQ, NTR, Petroneft Resources, Prime Active Capital, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, Zamano

Unfortunately, after starting with such promise, the months of September & October now appear to be living up to their more usual fearsome reputation. At this point, we’re forced to commiserate over a 10% correction (in round numbers) for the ISEQ from its most recent (early-Sep) high, including a 6.3% fall last week. And the fact the index is down almost 14% from its (end-Feb) 2014 high just compounds the misery. But corrections also present a good opportunity to re-evaluate battle plans… Now, I’ll obviously be reviewing The Great Irish Valuation Project in greater detail at year-end, so I’m going to strictly limit my comments here.

Updated snapshots of this year’s top winners & losers might prove instructive… [NB: Each stock’s gain/loss is simply measured from its TGISVP evaluation date (i.e. Feb-May, except for NTR), so actual YTD performance rankings of stocks might look a little different]. First we have the Sewer Shit:

Maybe it’s worth picking through the rubble for a couple of bargains? Hmm, perhaps not – with a couple of notable exceptions, all I see here really are bombs that may still explode in one’s face. As for ‘investors’ who already own some of these stocks, what can I say…if they’re stupid enough to buy ’em in the first place, I’m surely not the person who’s going to persuade them to finally cut their losses & run!

TGISVP – End-H1 2014 Snapshot

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Aer Lingus Group, Donegal Investment Group, Irish shares, Irish Stock Exchange, Irish value investing, ISEQ, Kentz Corp, Norish, Petroneft Resources, Prime Active Capital, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, Zamano

I expect to publish a performance-related post or two, but timeliness dictates I first take a closer look at what’s hot or not in The Great Irish Share Valuation Project. This year’s valuation phase was a 10 post epic stretching from Feb to May – so end-H1 presents a good opportunity to update share prices (plus some underlying valuation-related variables, primarily FX rates), and re-rank all 80 Irish shares in terms of their current upside potential. Obviously, I haven’t updated my underlying intrinsic valuations on the fly – that was never the intention – so pay close attention to any subsequent results & news flow for shares that might interest you. [But I generally find intrinsic valuations change slowly/incrementally]. I do have two last minute exceptions though:

Company:   Kentz Corp

Prior Post(s):   2012 & 2013 & 2014

Ticker:  KENZ:LN

Price:   GBP 926p

Well, this update’s pretty simple: Just a week ago, Kentz announced a recommended cash offer by SNC-Lavalin Group (SNC:CN) at GBP 935p per share. This seems to have taken the market by surprise, but it’s only an 18% premium vs. the 792p price target I published 3 months ago – arguably, one would expect such an additional control premium. I’ve even heard some PI mutterings about other potential bids… Yes, that’s always a possibility, but it doesn’t seem very realistic in this instance: With two other suitors rejected last year, I’m sure management explored all other possibilities before dropping their drawers for SNC-Lavalin.

Despite that, ideally I’d like to re-assess my valuation to determine whether a higher bid could be justified. But there’s been no subsequent results, except for a 10% increase in the company’s backlog (to $4.5 billion, plus a further $125 million contract announced in June). Which is clearly encouraging, but not much of a tangible basis for increasing my price target significantly. At this point, the most likely & logical price target is the recommended cash offer itself…

Price Target:   GBP 935p

Upside/(Downside):   1%

[NB: There are two other pending takeover offers to consider: i) A recommended share offer for Fyffes (FFY:ID) by Chiquita Brands International (CQB:US) – I expect this to close & already incorporated it into my 2014 FFY price target, and ii) a rejected share offer for Kenmare Resources (KMR:LN) by Iluka Resources (ILU:AU). I suspect KMR management (& shareholders?!) would prefer to go straight to hell, rather than accept this offer – unfortunately, the company’s current operating, cash & debt trajectory all suggest hell is actually a distinct possibility. I haven’t re-considered my much lower 2014 KMR price target at this point.]

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2014 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part IV)

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CPL Resources, Glanbia, Grafton Group, Irish shares, Irish Stock Exchange, Irish value investing, ISEQ, ISEQ 20 UCITS ETF, Papua Mining, Petroceltic International, Petroneft Resources, San Leon Energy, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project

Continued from here:

Company:   Grafton Group

Prior Post(s):   2012 & 2013

Ticker:   GFTU:LN

Price:   GBP 665p

Revisiting last year’s post, I see this prediction: ‘don’t be surprised to see Grafton suggesting a GBP re-denomination later this year…they might just go the full hog & dump their Irish listing in favour of the UK.’ Six months later, that’s exactly what they announced! Which makes sense really – over 75% of Grafton’s revenue now comes from the UK. On the other hand, you’d think the bloody Celtic Tiger was back, considering how the share price has behaved – a triple in just 18 months!? I was pretty bullish originally on Grafton, but my valuation estimate’s certainly been marking time ever since…

In the latest trading update, FY-2013 revenue reached GBP 1.90 billion & like-for-like sales were up nicely across the board. Recent reports suggest the 4.2% operating free cash flow (cash generated from operations, less net capex) margin’s still running well ahead of underlying operating profit – let’s assume that’s still the case on a FY basis. And I continue to believe Grafton will, in time, revert to its prior 7.0% peak operating FCF margin. For valuation purposes, averaging the two seems fair – a margin of 5.6% still deserves a 0.5 Price/Sales multiple, in my opinion. With net interest hovering ’round 15% of operating profit, no further debt/cash adjustments are necessary. [At this point, I don’t believe a P/E multiple’s a practical (or effective) valuation alternative to also incorporate here]. Which gives us:

2013 – A Game of Two Halves

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AIM stocks, Alternative Asset Opportunities, Asta Funding, benchmarking, correlation, fear and greed, hedge funds, home bias investing, KWG Kommunale Wohnen, Petroneft Resources, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, Richland Resources, Saga Furs, Tetragon Financial Group, Titanium Asset Management, US Oil & Gas

Yup, it’s that time of year again… [For reference, here’s my mid-year 2013 performance report, plus my FY-2012 report]. Right off the bat, I have to admit assessing annual performance isn’t my most favourite of activities (as I’ll explain). It also reminds me how easily our (personal) fear & greed equation can magically transform itself as we finish an old year & head into a new one. While most traders tend to start a new year cautiously, investors often set out brimming with over-confidence – which can prove pretty hazardous…

The UK’s AIM market, for example, has enjoyed significantly positive returns in 14 of its last 18 Januaries. This annual love-fest is even more remarkable when you realize the AIM index has declined 17% since its 1995 inception. [Growth and value investors, take note!] My favourite muppets provide a more ludicrous example: Shareholders of US Oil & Gas (USOP:G4) (I’m presuming no new suckers are buying at this point) hailed the new year by immediately buying/running up the price 60% from its yr-end close! Sure, hope springs eternal…but with most USOP investors having lost 95%+ of their investment to date, this kind of new year exuberance is wildly irrational.

Thinking about & tracking your stocks (& portfolio) on some kind of calendar basis is yet another fixated version of tracking individual stock gains/losses. And that’s how fear & greed grabs hold & encourages you to play the ‘if…‘ game. I’ve already recommended you Forget Your Purchase Price – now I recommend forgetting your Year-to-Date Gains. Free yourself of those deadly anchors, and you’ll be forced instead to look afresh at your holdings every single day. For each stock, that’s an exercise in assessing upside potential (i.e. current share price vs. your latest estimate of intrinsic value), and then weighing that reward against the level & range of risk(s) involved. Which boils down to one simple question for each of your portfolio holdings:  Should I buy, sell or hold this stock today? And your cumulative or calendar gains/losses on a stock are irrelevant to that question – no matter how small, large or goddamn painful they might be…

TGISVP – H1-2013 Performance

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alpha, Alpha Portfolio, Beta Portfolio, Clontarf Energy, Continental Farmers Group, DCC, Elan Corp, Fastnet Oil & Gas, Glanbia, Greencore Group, Irish shares, Irish value investing, ISEQ, junior resource stocks, muppets, Petroceltic International, Petroneft Resources, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, Smart Alpha Portfolio, Smart Beta Portfolio, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, US Oil & Gas

Time to wrap up the mid-year review(s) – let’s finish with The Great Irish Share Valuation Project. To recap:

– A total of 73 Irish companies are included this year (same as last year – but US Oil & Gas (USOP:G4) & Fastnet Oil & Gas (FAST:LN) were subsequently listed, so I added them later in the year, increasing the 2012 total to 75).

– Each company’s been individually reviewed & valued, some time between Jan & May, and I’ve kept a record of all share prices (at time of evaluation) & price targets to properly assess performance.

– I’ve made no subsequent changes to the file, except: i) to adjust for DCC (DCC:LN) migrating to a London-only listing & for Petroceltic International (PCI:LN) consolidating its shares 1 for 25, and ii) Continental Farmers Group (CFGP:LN) will continue to be included at its GBP 36p takeover price (the Saudi bail-out came in the nick of time, just before the cash ran dry!).

– Since my TGISVP review/valuation phase was spread over 4 1/2 mths, we need to adjust our benchmark (the ISEQ) accordingly. Like last year, I’ll take the mid-point (in terms of companies valued) of this phase – i.e. Feb-25th – as the most appropriate start date for the index.

I’m bemused to see I’ve apparently become more bearish this year! Last year, I was bullish on 48% of all stocks, while this year that’s now dropped to 40%. But consider the unique nature of TGISVP, which includes an extraordinary selection of junior resource stocks, complete with assorted incompetents & cowboys! Not surprisingly, I’m bearish on pretty much all these rubbish stocks – so stripping ’em out, it’s fair to say I remain bullish on Irish stocks. 🙂 OK, perhaps a little less so today, but with the ISEQ up +17.1% in 2012 & another +16.7% this year, that’s no great shocker..!

Mid-Year 2013 – Performance Update

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Alternative Asset Opportunities, Avangardco, checklists, CLOs, correlation, European Islamic Investment Bank, FBD Holdings, Fortress Investment Group, German property, home bias investing, KWG Kommunale Wohnen, Petroneft Resources, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, quantitative easing, Richland Resources, risk aversion, Sirius Real Estate, Tetragon Financial Group

I remain (somewhat) uncomfortable with performance reviews. Inevitably, they produce a pretty meaningless snapshot…but we just can’t help ourselves, eh? 😉 [I covered this whole topic in greater depth here, in my 2012 Performance Review, so that may be worth another look]. OK, once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more…

Let’s first check how the indices performed in H1-2013:

The performance of Ireland & the UK nicely supports my theory that the northern periphery (inc. Scandinavia – lots of interesting stocks there right now) offers some of the best (& lower-risk) plays on Europe. Then we have the US, which continues to demonstrate how much further along it is (vs. Europe) in the cycle – as Bernanke reminded the market recently, to its (feigned?) consternation! [And to the genuine consternation of the ECB & BoE – oh boy, there’s going to be plenty of playing chicken, on all sides, in the months & year to come]. I’m profoundly suspicious of the US market now – it’s not that rising bond yields can cause much damage, they’ll obviously remain low in absolute terms for a v long time. But the market’s a discounting machine – when buying stocks gets easy & the economic outlook starts to look rosy for the average investor, that’s when things turn dangerous: Because how much of that’s already been priced in? Too many times, this scenario leaves you at break-even for a couple of years (if you’re lucky), or much worse…

And if you think this time is different – well, I actually agree, but not in a good way! There’s no free lunch – you can’t just print your way to prosperity & expect to escape scot-free, there are always (unpredictable) consequences. So, has that been priced in also..?

TGISVP – Hot & Not, Mid-Year 2013

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Continental Farmers Group, Donegal Creameries, Irish shares, Irish value investing, junior resource stocks, Petroceltic International, Petroneft Resources, portfolio performance, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project

After resisting the lure of reporting quarterly performance at end-March, I’m now left mulling whether I should even report my semi-annual performance(s). Sigh, I probably will… Which is a little silly really, a public (or even private) review of any six month period/return is basically meaningless! Not that I’m complaining, I think you’ll agree the first half of the year treated us all pretty damn well. 🙂 Of course, that cozy warm feeling may simply confirm we’re all addicted to ‘monetary heroin’ now.

Anyway, I noted down quarter-end prices, so why don’t I first do a (brief) post giving you a timely snapshot of current rankings for The Great Irish Share Valuation Project. [For reference, here are my first & last posts in the valuation phase of TGISVP this year].

I’ve updated all share prices, plus some underlying variables (primarily FX rates), as of June-28th. I’ve also reflected the recent 1 for 25 consolidation of Petroceltic International (PCI:LN) shares, and eliminated Continental Farmers Group (CFGP:LN) after its successful takeover in June. At this point, I haven’t otherwise updated/revised any individual company valuations, so if a particular stock grabs your attention please check for subsequent news-flow/results. Of course, you may totally disagree with my valuation(s) anyway – so I’ll provide a complete Excel file below, which you’re welcome to amend as you see fit.

2013 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Final – Part XII)

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Buchans Minerals Corp, C&C Group, Donegal Creameries, Irish shares, Irish value investing, Kedco, Minco, Ovoca Gold, Petroneft Resources, Polymetal Intl., TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, Xtierra

Continued from here. This is my final post in the valuation phase of TGISVP – see here for my first 2013 TGISVP post. I’ve only 5 companies left to cover, including a new one suggested by a reader (Kedco, thanks!). [I rejected another – One 51 – as it isn’t listed on a regular exchange]. Let’s begin:

Company:   Ovoca Gold

Prior Post:   Here

Ticker:   OVG:LN

Price:   GBP 11p

What a difference a year makes, eh!? Last year, I was pretty bullish on Ovoca & its story (perhaps less so on its valuation, but I still saw a reasonable 39% upside). Wow, I even made a $2,000 call on gold (not that I was interested in participating)… However, a couple of months later, I rapidly lost interest in Ovoca as the Russians took over, dodgy loans started popping up on the balance sheet, and their American CEO abruptly resigned & sold his stake. It also made me realize Ovoca isn’t remotely an Irish company any more – in fact, I seriously considered kicking it out of TGISVP. But it’s still an Irish-listed company – so let’s hold our noses & take a closer look.

2013 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part II)

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First Derivatives, Fyffes, Irish Continental Group, Irish shares, Irish value investing, Ormonde Mining, Petroneft Resources, Rathdowney Resources, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, Total Produce

Continued from here. Why don’t we just jump into the next (er, smaller!) batch of TGISVP stocks:

Company:   Ormonde Mining

Prior Post:   Here

Ticker:   ORM:LN

Price:   GBP 7.25p

ORM message boarders really took exception to my comments last year – clearly, they’re nuttier than the average Snickers bar… For God’s sake, I posted a marginally bullish valuation! Suggesting dilution might prove an issue seems to have caused most offence & was emphatically rejected. Er, what about the two subsequent placings in 2012 (one arrived a mere 5 weeks after my post)?! Muppet magic… Jesus, they probably won’t even like this year’s valuation!