So, Where’s The Bloody Inflation..?!

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baby boomers, banks, Bernanke, budget deficit, capital ratios, de-leveraging, debt monetization, Debt/GDP Ratio, ECB, Europe, European sovereign debt crisis, Fed, financial crisis, fiscal deficits, Flub-Med, GDP growth, Hunt brothers, income/dividend bubble, inflation, Japan, multiplier effect, Occupy Wall Street, politicians, quantitative easing, real assets, risk aversion, savings rate, stagflation, US, Volcker

I was beginning a new post in my recent Hitting the Century series (and here), and realized my next 3 investment allocations were to real assets – Natural Resources, Agri & Property. This v quickly got me thinking about inflation, enough to devote myself to this post instead:

Along the way, dear reader, you may have noticed my pronounced distaste for fiscal & monetary policy in the developed world. Particularly in the US... That’s not intended to be a US slap-down…and certainly not praise for Europe either! It’s simply a pretty inescapable conclusion if you compare the US & (the hard-core of) Europe over the past 4 decades. Jesus, I struggle to think of somebody with any real power in the US who truly gives a flying f**k about their accelerating debt burden, debt monetization, or the long-term external value of the dollar. In contrast, the ECB & certain Eurozone countries still actually exhibit a painful reluctance to take that road to monetary & fiscal oblivion – even in the face of a European sovereign debt crisis!

A Greek Tragedy…?

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austerity, Big Brother, budget deficit, citizenship, Debt/GDP Ratio, default, Europe, European sovereign debt crisis, Greece, Occupy Wall Street, politicians, remittance economy, tragedy of the commons, US, venality

Two key (related) themes echo through recent articles about the Greek sovereign debt crisis. I’ve the distinct & nagging feeling something’s missing here? Hmmm… Anyway, the first theme is the expression of outrage at Greek politicians, their profligate ways and their general shiftiness. Sure, it’s always fun to criticize politicians, but why bother really? What exactly did you expect of them? I’m bemused by the air of superiority displayed in some articles – nah, nah, nah, my politicians are better than yours! Rubbish, there’s nothing unique about Greek politicians in a global context – they’re just a little further down the road to hell…

Let’s think about what makes them tick: Well, they say politics is an unpredictable business – true, you just can’t second-guess stupidity sometimes. But otherwise, you mostly just need to consider the actors’ motivations. Depressingly, this seems to boil down to Money, Power, or both! OK, Duty’s another possibility – reluctant leaders are often the best leaders. But how often, in the past decade or two, have you seen a politician consistently serve out of a clear sense of duty?

US Economy, Government Finances & Debt – Some of the Gory Details (III)

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% of GDP, budget deficit, Democrats, politicians, Republicans, US economy, US government finances, US government revenues, US government spending, US taxes

Continued from here:

Right, in Part II we surveyed US government spending. While spending spiked to 23.7% of GDP in 2010 (the highest since 1946) due to the financial crisis, it otherwise gradually declined over the past few decades to about 19% of GDP in the early 2000s. The decline appears primarily due to decreased defense spending.

We also noted that total US government spending’s among the lowest in the developed world. Despite this, the accompanying decline in tax revenues over the decades now leaves us in a situation where spending’s at 160% of revenues in 2010. What does that mean in terms of the government’s budget deficit and, of course, debt?