2014 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part III)

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Allied Irish Banks, Clontarf Energy, Fastnet Oil & Gas, ICON, Irish shares, Irish Stock Exchange, Irish value investing, ISEQ, Kerry Group, portfolio performance, Providence Resources, Ryanair Holdings, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, Total Produce

Continued from here:

Company:   Kerry Group

Prior Post(s):   2012 & 2013

Ticker:   KYG:ID

Price:   EUR 51.60

So, here I am again – eyeballing Kerry’s valuation, and searching for supporting evidence in its accounts. But it’s nowhere to be found… Now I think about it, maybe all the big Irish food/agri companies will end up looking wildly over-valued to my jaundiced eye? This investor homage perplexes me – surely someone recalls how little respect these companies commanded in the past?! Well, perhaps they were different beasts then – but I don’t believe they’ve (fully) delivered on what they promised, when they embarked on this multi-year process of portfolio rationalization & re-configuration. And I certainly don’t believe they’ve grown into their current valuations either.

Then again, maybe I shouldn’t look a gift horse in the mouth! Now Donegal Investment Group (DCP:ID) has ditched its dairy business, and is looking to shed non-core assets & move up the value chain, surely it’s on the verge of a similar multiple? Hmmm, so what’s a 20 P/E worth to DCP?! 🙂

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2013 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part XI)

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Barryroe, CRH, DGO, Dragon Oil, Fiordland, IFG Group, IFP, Irish shares, Irish value investing, Melrose Resources, PCI, Petroceltic International, Providence Resources, PVR, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project

Continued from here.

Company:   Petroceltic International

Prior Post:   Here

Ticker:   PCI:LN

Price:   GBP 6.3p

Last year, I correctly tagged Petroceltic as slightly over-valued. Despite that, I’ve been surprised to see the share price continue its decline in the past few months…because 2012 was a game-changing year! There were two key events:

First, Petroceltic closed on a GBP 170 mio merger with Melrose Resources in October. This was essentially a merger of equals (with PCI shareholders getting 54% of the enlarged company), and both companies possessed nicely overlapping portfolios in the MENA, Mediterranean & Black Sea regions. The key attraction of the deal, however, was the fact it was the merger of a producer & an explorer. This is an incredibly powerful combination in the hands of the right management team: Production can actually fund a company’s exploration plans on a self-sustaining basis. In this instance, pre-merger cashflows suggest operating cash generation (after interest & taxes) is now running around $155 mio pa post-merger, which nicely funds Petroceltic’s forecasted 2013 exploration & development programme.

Irish Shares 2012 – The Good & The Bad

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Aer Lingus, FBD Holdings, Greencore, Irish shares, Petrel Resources, Petroneft Resources, Providence Resources, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, Total Produce, US Oil & Gas, Worldspreads

I’m just finalizing my review of The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (TGISVP) for 2012. My end-Q3 review is here & here for reference (and this post’s relevant also – it may even offer some interesting commentary on general stock selection & valuation). In this post I’ll cover last year’s winners & losers.

NB: FY 2012 performance is TGISVP specific, i.e. it’s only measured from the specific date I set a target price for each stock in Q1 2012. [Apologies if you’d prefer actual FY 2012 stock performances – but I’m sure there would be a high degree of overlap, anyway]. There’s no M&A to highlight for Q4 – the only items of note are i) United Drug (UDG:LN) abandoned its Irish listing in favour of London, and ii) Elan (ELN:US) spun out its drug-discovery unit, Prothena Corp (PRTA:US) – but the impact for shareholders was minimal.

Here’s the 2012 Top 10 Winners:

TGISVP, Q3 2012 YTD Performance (I)

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Aer Lingus, Alpha Portfolio, Beta Portfolio, Cove Energy, CPL Resources, Datalex, Fastnet Oil & Gas, FBD Holdings, garbage stocks, junior resource stocks, performance appraisal, Petroneft Resources, portfolio performance, Prime Active Capital, Providence Resources, Siteserv, TGISVP, US Oil & Gas, Worldspreads

Now Q3 2012 is over, it’s time to revisit The Great Irish Share Valuation Project. Here’s my H1 2012 performance post, for reference.

First, note there’s been 1 de-listing – we already had the heads-up on it last quarter: Cove Energy (COV:LN) was taken out for GBP 240p in cash per share by PTTEP (PTTEP:TB). A marvelous result for most shareholders, except for a few over-enthusiastic latecomers that bid the shares up to GBP 270p+ in the dying days of a Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB:LN) vs. PTTEP tussle. [I’ll continue to include Cove – at its final GBP 240p value – for performance purposes for the rest of the year].

Note: Q3 2012 YTD performance for each stock is TGISVP specific – that is, performance is measured from the specific date (in Q1) I set a target price for each stock. [Apologies if you’d prefer to see actual YTD performance for all stocks – but I suspect there’d be a high degree of overlap in the winners & losers, anyway].

TGISVP – H1 2012 Performance – Firing On all Cylinders!

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Aer Lingus, AGI Therapeutics, Alpha Portfolio, Beta Portfolio, Botswana Diamonds, Cove Energy, Datalex, ISEQ, Karelian Diamond Resources, market-neutral, natural resource stocks, Ovoca Gold, Petroneft Resources, portfolio performance, Prime Active Capital, Providence Resources, Readymix, Risk Arbitrage, Siteser, Smart Alpha Portfolio, Smart Beta Portfolio, TGISVP, Worldspreads

Now H1 2012 is over, it’s time to revisit The Great Irish Share Valuation Project. Here’s my Q1 2012 performance post – well worth revisiting as background, but I’ll recap some important points below.

Let’s first look at individual stocks. I count 4 de-listings (which I’ll continue to include for performance purposes, at their final values): AGI Therapeutics (AGI:ID/LN) was a profitable Event-Driven investment for me, and inspiration for some detailed Risk Arb. posts. Siteserv (SSV:ID/LN) & Worldspreads (WSPR:LN/ID) both exited amid scandal – possibly criminal in the case of the latter, with alleged charges now including share price manipulation, in addition to accounting/actual fraud. Finally, Readymix (RYX:ID) succumbed to a Cemex (CX:US) bid, illustrating that the right investment thesis (an eventual takeout by the controlling shareholder) is not enough. Timing & the price you pay are equally important – despite the bid premium, RYX’s multi-year operational & price decline meant v few long term shareholders made any profit. Looking ahead, Cove Energy (COV:LN) seems set to follow the de-listers, but promises to provide some final drama!

The Great Irish Share Valuation Project IV

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Atlantic Resources, Austevoll, Continental Farmers Group, Hoarders, Independent News & Media, Limited Brands, Merrion Pharm, Origin Enterprises, Ormonde Mining, Ovoca Gold, Paddy Power, Petroceltic, Petroneft Resources, Polymetal, Prime Active Capital, Providence Resources, Readymix, Ryanair, TGISVP

Continued from here:

OK, time to tackle another batch of 10 Irish stocks. First, let me insert the Excel files. Again, all market prices (and FX rates) are updated, so this is a live snapshot of all stocks covered to date (with each stock’s upside/downside potential also recalculated vs. its valuation).

As I’ve mentioned before, please feel free to provide your own Price Targets on the Template sheet – it would be greatly appreciated by me, and many of my readers. If you disagree with some of my valuations, this is a great way to express yourself! I think we can all learn a lot more from divergent rather than convergent views on stocks..! Here are full notes/instructions if you wish to submit any Price Targets.