German Residential Property V – A Buy!

Tags

Barmer Wohnungsbau, catalyst, commercial property, convergence, correlation, Deutsche Wohnen, EPRA NAV, German bunds, German property, Germany, Karl Ehlerding, KWG Kommunale Wohnen, large cap stocks, marathon, NAV, NAV discount, NAV premium, Net LTV, North Rhine-Westphalia, Price/Book, REIT/MLP sector, rental yield, residential property, Sirius Real Estate, small cap stocks, Stavros Efremidis, Taliesin, value investing

Continued from here. A 5-part series might seem like overkill – hmm, I’ve done worse 😉 – hopefully, you found something useful in each post. And, of course, I wanted to illustrate the research (& contemplation) required for any real investment edge in your stock-picking & portfolio. Peer/sector analysis may perhaps be the most rewarding component – though it drives me to distraction occasionally…

Picture it: You come across a random gem – you suspect it’s best of breed & should be pounced upon asap! Instead you take a breath, step back & force yourself to research it (and its peers) from all conceivable angles. Meanwhile, your gem’s share price begins to ascend rapidly, and you’re totally missing out… I’m suffering that with one idea I want to exploit – the apparent gem of the sector’s jumped 20%+, gahhh!

But investing isn’t a sprint, it’s an (often painful) marathon. We all remember a satisfying quick-fire buy that worked out, but we’re really just trying to forget the pain of misguided duds… Disasters we might perhaps have avoided if we’d researched them a little more, or picked the better horse. Research & patience are ultimately far more profitable than grabbing the first nice stock you see. Also, peer/sector analysis is essential to my preferred approach to investment:

Great Story, Great Stock & Great Price

Advertisements

German Residential Property (Part III)

Tags

absolute return, Austria, dividend yield, financial crisis, financial derivatives, German bunds, German property, Germany, home ownership, income/dividend bubble, intrinsic value, land grab, Leverage, Margin of Safety, Mr. Market, NAV discount, Net LTV, Price/Book, REIT/MLP sector, relative value, rental yield, residential property, safe-havens, special situations

Continued from here.

OK, now we’ve looked at German residential property fundamentals. The current supply/demand & home ownership rate, rental yields, safe-haven status, and particularly the low valuations, certainly appear to offer a persuasive investment case. So, how do we exploit it?!

As I’ve said, I’m perplexed by the general investor obsession over direct property investment. What a hassle! And let’s correct a key misconception: People say they prefer direct investment as they can leverage it up – something you can’t, or shouldn’t, do with an equity investment! Yeah, sounds logical…but it’s complete rubbish! That coveted (?!) leverage is already embedded in listed companies (and far more efficiently/cheaply than you could obtain).

Let’s say you’ve a spare 300 K knockin’ around. You could buy a 1 mio property, with the help of a 70% mortgage (and years/decades of property/tenant headaches to come!). Or you could invest in the equity of a listed property company that owns 1 mio of property (with the same 70% leverage). All at the click of a button & an occasional read of their financial reports. What an easy choice… OK, but who knows where the hell the share price might trade?!

Chasing Some Dividend Tail (II)..?

Tags

Avon Products, dividend coverage, dividend snorting, dividend yield, income/dividend bubble, Ponzi, REIT/MLP sector, Supervalu Inc., tax-free compounding

Continued from here.

OK, so what’s wrong with a focus on income/dividends?

– Erm, everything..? I wrote about this recently – a focus on a single investment attribute’s always dangerous, but dividend yield certainly seems the v worst of the bunch to me. Sure, it all starts out innocently enough… You have a little toke on a 4% yield occasionally – feels good! But all too soon, it’s not enough – you end up calling your broker every single day, snorting up 6% yields left and right. But it’s OK, it’s low risk, you still know what you’re doing – not like those other losers… So how come I came across you the other day, twitching on a park bench, scanning the dividend column in the FT, muttering ‘All I need is just one more 9 per-center…‘?

– A ‘good‘ dividend yield can’t save a bad share. I wonder how much money’s been lost by people saying ‘…but hey, it’s got a great dividend…‘? All higher yields mostly seem to offer in a portfolio is a gradual migration into mature and/or declining businesses. And what does that offer in terms of upside?! Even worse, it leaves nowhere to hide when the dividend’s compromised – your income drops, and the share price crashes…

Chasing Some Dividend Tail (I)..?

Tags

AIM stocks, dividend coverage, dividend yield, Expecting Value, income/dividend bubble, pitch books, REIT/MLP sector, Richard Beddard, Stockopedia, survivorship bias, tax, tax-free compounding, The Reformed Broker, UK Value Investor

There’s been a lot of good dividend commentary & debate in the UK blogosphere recently. Stockopedia seems to have ignited the debate:

http://www.stockopedia.co.uk/content/the-dividend-puzzle-or-why-the-dividend-emperor-may-have-no-clothes-66275/

Expecting Value & UK Value Investor chimed in with these:

http://expectingvalue.com/aroundtheweb/friday-reading-29#more-2326

http://www.ukvalueinvestor.com/2012/06/how-to-find-the-best-high-yield-shares.html

TGISVP – What’s Interesting, What’s Not..?

Tags

Bank of Ireland, bubbles, dividend yield, DYOR, intrinsic value, ISEQ, natural resource stocks, Ovoca Gold, Permanent TSB, Petroneft Resources, Ponzi, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, Prime Active Capital, REIT/MLP sector, stock screener, TGISVP, Total Produce

In my last post, I was pleased to see TGISVP continue to deliver significant out-performance vs. the ISEQ benchmark. Early days yet: This could be blind luck, but hopefully it’s derived from a robust analytical process that clearly identifies over/under-valued shares. Which naturally demands a bit of a refresh…

I haven’t actually felt compelled to perform any Irish share revaluations since my TGISVP X post, even for stocks I hold. Personally, I’m pleased with this – I’m v comfortable with my Irish holdings, I believe my valuations are robust, and there’s been no unexpected news-flow. In light of my current Irish portfolio allocation (16%), and actual stocks I hold, I’d be reluctant to add another Irish share. This doesn’t mean forgetting the rest, of course! It does mean I can just watch out for interesting price drops, rather than agonize over constantly refreshing valuations.

Asset Managers – Another Look at Valuation

Tags

% of AUM, activist investors, alternative assets, asset managers, catalyst, earnings growth, Goldman Sachs, hedge funds, P/B Ratio, P/E ratio, P/S Ratio, Price/Sales, REIT/MLP sector, short sellers, takeover offers

Continued from here. I was glad to see some comments/debate come back to me re my previous asset manager valuation statement:

‘Obviously each manager has their own unique story/valuation, but big picture these metrics really work: 2.25%-3.25% of AUM for traditional managers and 7.5%+ of AUM for alternative managers.‘

‘Big picture‘, of course, just means on average & over time, there will be plenty of exceptions to the rule..! Actually, readers were really just (smartly) anticipating something I wanted to highlight in my Part 2: I’ve highlighted the benefits/logic of using a % of AUM valuation approach, but how about related risks & questions? Like: