2014 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part III)

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Allied Irish Banks, Clontarf Energy, Fastnet Oil & Gas, ICON, Irish shares, Irish Stock Exchange, Irish value investing, ISEQ, Kerry Group, portfolio performance, Providence Resources, Ryanair Holdings, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, Total Produce

Continued from here:

Company:   Kerry Group

Prior Post(s):   2012 & 2013

Ticker:   KYG:ID

Price:   EUR 51.60

So, here I am again – eyeballing Kerry’s valuation, and searching for supporting evidence in its accounts. But it’s nowhere to be found… Now I think about it, maybe all the big Irish food/agri companies will end up looking wildly over-valued to my jaundiced eye? This investor homage perplexes me – surely someone recalls how little respect these companies commanded in the past?! Well, perhaps they were different beasts then – but I don’t believe they’ve (fully) delivered on what they promised, when they embarked on this multi-year process of portfolio rationalization & re-configuration. And I certainly don’t believe they’ve grown into their current valuations either.

Then again, maybe I shouldn’t look a gift horse in the mouth! Now Donegal Investment Group (DCP:ID) has ditched its dairy business, and is looking to shed non-core assets & move up the value chain, surely it’s on the verge of a similar multiple? Hmmm, so what’s a 20 P/E worth to DCP?! 🙂

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2013 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part VIII)

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Aer Lingus Group, Anton Bilton, distressed investing, equine DNA, Greencore Group, IMC Exploration Group, Irish shares, Irish value investing, ISEQ 20 ETF, iShares MSCI Ireland ETF, New Ireland Fund, Orogen Gold, Pension Deficit, Ryanair Holdings, Smurfit Kappa Group, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, Uniq plc

Continued from here.

Company:   Greencore Group

Prior Post:   Here     (valuation, see here & here for commentary!)

Ticker:   GNC:LN

Price:   GBP 95.75p

Well, I guess my perspective on Greencore last year was horribly wrong..! I’ve long considered GNC a distressed company, but the market clearly disagrees. So much so, the share price rallied almost 70% in the past year – my price target (of GBP 32.5p) was certainly left choking in the dust! But if my distressed premise is correct – and, objectively, I can’t see how you’d disagree with me – this rally isn’t so surprising. What..?! But companies like this are always a binary proposition – they simply die, or they survive & maybe even thrive eventually. And if everybody still feels blithely happy about them, they present a temptingly cheap buy. Greencore’s also a nice scary reminder of how dangerous shorting can be – poor underlying fundamentals are often ignored far longer than you can take the pain…

2013 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part III)

Tags

Aer Lingus, Andor Technology, Botswana Diamonds, Clontarf Energy, Escher Group Holdings, Irish shares, Irish value investing, Merrion Pharmaceuticals, Ryanair Holdings, San Leon Energy, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, US Oil & Gas, USOP

Continued from here. Right, here’s the next batch of TGISVP stocks!

Company:   Ryanair Holdings

Prior Post:   Here

Ticker:   RYA:ID

Price:   EUR 5.689

Last year, I was still mildly bullish on Ryanair, but also in the process of selling down an RYA position I held. Since then, the share’s out-performed my target price by just over 20%… But I don’t feel much regret: a) while RYA’s more defensive than most, airline stocks are inherently volatile – I demanded, quite rightly, a wide margin of safety to compensate, b) a year’s passed, I’m sure my current target will be that much higher, and c) I was generally pretty happy with the re-investment of any proceeds last year!

There’s little new to observe here – Ryanair remains a bloody awesome earnings machine! Current operating margin has been squeezed slightly by fuel costs, but at 14.2% it still deserves a 1.33 Price/Sales ratio. A positive debt adjustment is also appropriate, considering RYA’s currently sporting 10 times interest coverage & has a history of share buybacks & a special dividend in the past year. YTD earnings growth is at +12.5%, while last FY earnings growth was running at 25%+. Considering the potential for earnings volatility here, a 15 P/E is still pretty much the maximum I’m comfortable with (based on an estimated EUR 0.3875 EPS run-rate).