TGISVP, Q3 2012 YTD Performance (I)

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Aer Lingus, Alpha Portfolio, Beta Portfolio, Cove Energy, CPL Resources, Datalex, Fastnet Oil & Gas, FBD Holdings, garbage stocks, junior resource stocks, performance appraisal, Petroneft Resources, portfolio performance, Prime Active Capital, Providence Resources, Siteserv, TGISVP, US Oil & Gas, Worldspreads

Now Q3 2012 is over, it’s time to revisit The Great Irish Share Valuation Project. Here’s my H1 2012 performance post, for reference.

First, note there’s been 1 de-listing – we already had the heads-up on it last quarter: Cove Energy (COV:LN) was taken out for GBP 240p in cash per share by PTTEP (PTTEP:TB). A marvelous result for most shareholders, except for a few over-enthusiastic latecomers that bid the shares up to GBP 270p+ in the dying days of a Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB:LN) vs. PTTEP tussle. [I’ll continue to include Cove – at its final GBP 240p value – for performance purposes for the rest of the year].

Note: Q3 2012 YTD performance for each stock is TGISVP specific – that is, performance is measured from the specific date (in Q1) I set a target price for each stock. [Apologies if you’d prefer to see actual YTD performance for all stocks – but I suspect there’d be a high degree of overlap in the winners & losers, anyway].

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Shiteserv

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Altrad, IBRC, Michael Noonan, Mike Aynsley, Namawinelake, Political World, Robert Dix, Siteserv

i) Here are the latest Siteserv (SSV:ID/LN) developments:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/65ea45ec-7f2a-11e1-a26e-00144feab49a.html#axzz1rM9GApGj

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/altrad-made-higher-offer-of-60m-siteserv-egm-is-told-3073345.html

7.7% Q1 2012 Outperformance! – TGISVP XI

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AGI Therapeutics, Alpha Portfolio, Beta Portfolio, Conroy Gold, hedge funds, ISEQ, junior resource stocks, market-neutral, portfolio performance, Prime Active Capital, Siteserv, Smart Alpha Portfolio, Smart Beta Portfolio, TGISVP, Worldspreads

It’s early days yet but, rather serendipitously, I managed to complete the valuation stage of The Great Irish Share Valuation Project by quarter-end. That deserves a performance review, I guess..?!

Let’s first take a look at individual stock performance. btw I mentioned I’ve completed 72 Irish stock valuations, but I’ll continue to include AGI Therapeutics (which was taken over) as a 73rd stock for performance purposes. And remember, Gainers/Losers are based on quarter-end prices vs. the original market prices I noted (as I worked my way through each stock’s valuation in Jan-March). Therefore, this is a TGISVP specific performance snapshot, I’m not attempting a full Q1 stock performance ranking here (though I’d expect they would be pretty similar):

The Great Irish Share Valuation Project IX

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2P Reserves, Alkermes, Amarin, Anadarko, Andor Technology, Botswana Diamonds, Circle Oil, Clontarf Energy, Connemara Mining, Cooley Distillery, Cove Energy, Dragon Oil, Escher Group, Galantas Gold, Interior Services Group, iShares MSCI Ireland ETF, Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Jim Beam, John Teeling, Kentz, Minco, Ovoca Gold, Petrel Resources, PTT, Royal Dutch Shell, Siteserv, TGISVP, Tullow Oil, USPS, Worldspreads, Xstrata, Xtierra

Continued from here.

As I’ve mentioned, we’ve another 20 odd non-ISEQ listed Irish stocks to work through still. I should first note I’ve eliminated Alkermes (ALKS:US) and Amarin (AMRN:US) (and Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ:US) never even made the cut*). Clearly, an Ireland HQ is particularly attractive for pharma companies! Any reader care to enlighten us further..? I wasn’t fooled by this shell game, but they had some Irish directors/management/locations, so I planned to include them in TGISVP. Now I look again, their Irish ‘representation‘ is pretty small, and sure to get even smaller… So they’re out – unless someone wants to email and persuade me otherwise!?

I’ve also revised valuations for Worldspreads (WSPR:LN) and Siteserv (SSV:LN) – in fact, they kind of swap places in the rankings! I was briefly commenting here on both companies, and their respective scandals, and it got a little out of control..! I had to upgrade to a separate article. Note I’m keeping a file of all original share prices and valuations, which I’ll use for any performance/evaluation exercises at a later date. Right, let’s see if we find anything interesting in this batch:

You’ve Got to Pick-A-Pocket or Two…

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Charlie McCreevy, Denis O'Brien, IBRC, IG Index, Phoenix magazine, segregated accounts, Siteserv, TGISVP, Worldspreads

Here’s Oliver!

I was working on my next set (non-ISEQ listed Irish stocks) of valuations for The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, and realized there were two very obvious revisions I needed to make… Yup, in my next TGISVP post, I’ll be adjusting the valuations for Siteserv (SSV:ID) and Worldspreads (WSPR:LN), after two scandals in a single bloody day! How do I express my sheer disgust here..?!

Let’s start with Siteserv:

The Great Irish Share Valuation Project V

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Better Capital, Dart Group, FL Partners, Irish Continental, Jon Moulton, Marketspreads, Paddy Power, Pageant Holdings, Petroneft Resources, Ryanair, Siteserv, Smurfit Kappa, TGISVP, Total Produce, Tullow Oil, TVC Holdings, United Drug, UTV Media, Worldspreads, Zamano

Continued from here:

Before tackling the next batch of stocks, some readers may want to revisit my first TGISVP post. This project’s not about doing a detailed writeup/valuation on each stock. Sure, I spend ample time on each stock (on a best efforts basis)**, but less than if I were making an investment and/or doing a detailed writeup. That’s why I label these rough and ready valuations! On average, yes I’d expect detailed and rough & ready valuations to be similar, but ‘average‘ is key here..! Take a closer look at any company, and my new valuation could be (possibly significantly) higher, lower or unchanged vs. my original valuation.

What this project is designed to do: i) Illustrate the wide variety of valuation assumptions/approaches that can be applied depending on each individual company/situation, and ii) provide a cheatsheet to highlight the potentially best (and worst!) Irish stocks, on an absolute (or relative) basis, that may merit further research and potential purchase/sale.

Siteserv – Best Irish Joke?

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distressed, garbage stocks, Siteserv, TGISVP

I recently commented on Siteserv (SSV:ID or LN) here, and as I worked on another set of valuations for TGISVP, I couldn’t resist returning to the subject:

Any chance the Exchange could put a health warning on this PoS?! Management muppets were recently forced (in response to media comment!) to come out with a statement. The key sentence is: ‘At this stage it is not possible to predict the outcome of this exercise nor quantify the financial impact for shareholders.‘ Don’t be fooled, there’s only one way this ever works out: Zero value or absolutely massive dilution for shareholders.

Seduction…and Neglect?! How About a Catalyst? (Part III)

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Avanti Capital, delisting risk, Dhir India, Eurovestech, GPG, Gresham House, IRR, JSM Indochina, Liquidations, LMS Capital, Mazars, Ottoman Fund, Private Equity Investor, Siteserv, South African Property Opps, Spark Ventures, Trading Emissions, Trinity Capital, Veris plc, wind-down

Continued from here:

i) Liquidations are top of the heap for catalysts! They’re usually only announced after a company has sold all/the majority of its assets (or occasionally its business(es)). They offer the best prospect of a highly certain final asset value, to be realized within a reasonably short/well-defined timeline. They’re usually concluded within 6 months to 2 years, and any decent BoD/management will provide an estimated total distribution amount (net of all expected liquidation expenses) and schedule.

Of course, if they’ve an ounce of sense, they’ll be as conservative/pessimistic as possible with their forecasts, so any surprises should hopefully be positive… (In fact, they should recast the B/S with all future expected liquidation expenses included as a provision – i.e. accounting on a liquidation basis, not a going concern basis). In aggregate, these features mean that liquidations have v attractive IRRs and Expected Value Returns!