Crushin’ It: FY-2015 Portfolio Performance

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benchmarking, Bloomberg Euro 500, emerging markets, frontier markets, FTSE 100, FTSE AIM All-Share, hedge funds, ISEQ, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, S&P 500, value investing

OK, Top Tips done – now, it’s performance time!

And already I’m fully aware the designated performance benchmark here is very different for me than everybody else…which is, of course, entirely my own fault! Because I chose to include the ISEQ as 25% of my benchmark, and it’s performed quite spectacularly every single year. Which, you’ll have to admit, is terribly unfair… 😉

Unfair, because it jacks up my benchmark return every year. And because it’s such a painful & galling reminder that if I’d been just a little bit dumber, and simply overdosed on the Irish market, doubtless I’d now be reporting a totally amazing performance. Except…who bets their entire portfolio on a single market? Esp. the Irish market, which is a mere rounding error globally (in terms of market cap)? Intellectually, prudent diversification makes all the sense in the world, but emotionally it’s a lose-lose proposition: ‘Cos markets surge & you loathe being diversified, you just want to concentrated on the winners…then markets collapse, and being diversified is great, except you’re still inescapably miserable because you’re actually losing money! But at this point, the ISEQ’s clearly my personal cross to bear – so let’s just stick with it – here’s my 2015 benchmark:

Obviously, it’s been a game of two halves – with most markets suffering in the second half – so I’ve also added a H1 vs. H2 breakout. But wouldya ever take a gander at that ISEQ performance! Who’d have expected an additional +12.0% rally, after an +18.0% surge in H1? And that’s nothing…if I described a market which had clocked 15%+ annual returns in 2012-2014, would you ever have guessed a +30.0% return for 2015?! Methinks not… But then again, I’ve actually been consistently bullish on the Irish market for the past 4 years now – which I’m v pleased by, except when I agonise over the fact I capitalised far too little on such prescience. Sad, sad, sad…

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Wexboy Portfolio Performance – Total Gain & CAGR (since Blog Inception)

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benchmarking, Bloomberg Euro 500, FTSE 100, hedge funds, investment blogs, ISEQ, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, S&P 500, track record, value investing

Crikey, the blog’s 4 years old soon! So this post’s been on my to-do list for quite some time now…as they say in the hedge fund world, you’re nothing ’til you’ve racked up a 3 year track record! And maybe it’s the perfect time for it, anyway – with an hysterical media insisting the market (& the global economy) are on the verge of collapse again, a reminder of the opportunity & rewards of medium/long term equity investment may offer some welcome relief.

First, I should remind readers of my approach since day one. When I started out here, there were some great investment blogs (some which I read to this day) that served as inspiration. Except many didn’t have any kind of portfolio tracking, or performance, which frustrated me… Now, don’t get me wrong, performance certainly isn’t the be-all & end-all of any blog. Quite obviously, the quality of the investment ideas & analysis is far more important.

Or is it..?

I mean, how on earth do you evaluate an investor’s conviction regarding a specific stock…when you don’t know whether he’s really putting his money where his mouth is (or even if he owns the stock at all)?! I’m not talking dollar/euros & cents here, disclosing the relative size of a position is more than enough. Call me crass & materialistic, but I tend to pay a hell of a lot more attention to someone telling me about their new 10% portfolio holding, rather than some 2% place-holder – how about you?! And then there’s the sad fact that investing isn’t just about investment ideas. As any hedge fund honcho will tell you, a great analyst doesn’t necessarily make a great fund manager…

‘Cos play money ain’t the same thing as real money!

[NB: And nope, I’m not (& have never been) a frustrated hedge fund analyst!]

So, when it comes to investment blogs, it’s natural to want a more holistic view of what an investor really brings to the table. Are they prepared to expose their portfolio to real-time public scrutiny? And if they are, can they actually live with that decision? For example: How do they perform under pressure, and how do they deal with the pernicious impact(s) of fear & greed? Do they insist on defending a failed investment thesis & going down with the ship, or can they bring themselves to admit they’re wrong…even when they secretly believe they’re still right? Or as any good trader might ask:

Do you wanna be right, or do you wanna make money..?!

Smokin’ the S&P…H1-2015 Wexboy Portfolio Performance!

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Alternative Asset Opportunities, Argo Group, Bloomberg Euro 500, Donegal Investment Group, EIIB, FTSE 100, ISEQ, KWG Kommunale Wohnen, Newmark Security, NTR plc, One51, portfolio performance, S&P 500, takeover offers, Universe Group, value investing, Zamano

Oh Lord, where did July go..?! I’d hoped to publish my H1-2015 portfolio performance report a week/ten days ago, but I guess the days kinda slipped away – who can fault a bit of fun in the sun, esp. when my portfolio holdings are slowly but surely marching higher (despite all the China volatility & the fact the US market’s totally sucking wind this year).

Now, if you’re a regular reader, I recently detailed my (still) developing bubble thesis (Parts I to IV), suggesting an increased focus on large cap stocks (a new global Nifty Fifty) might be more profitable. [Though I’m also v conscious of certain small/micro cap successes in the past 12-18 months – a bar-bell strategy, in terms of market cap, may ultimately prove more compelling]. But in terms of immediate portfolio changes, I hastened to add: ‘I don’t believe there’s any great rush here, necessarily’. Well, that being said…let’s first kick off with some (end-June) portfolio changes!

Portfolio Sales:

Alternative Asset Opportunities (TLI:LN):  TLI had a great H2-2014 run – gaining over 22% (inc. a 2p return of capital), making it my top holding at year-end (at 11.1%). Since then, the insured have enjoyed a real stroke of luck, with just one maturity announced. Not surprisingly, the shares are off YTD in sympathy (reducing my holding, in % terms). But I’d focus on TLI’s portfolio instead – adjusting for minor FX unfavourability, and an additional 2p ret. of capital, TLI’s underlying NAV decline was limited to just 3%.

And I see no change in prospects: We’re at the end of a long & painful life expectancy adjustment process (in fact, June NAV inc. a meaningful positive LE impact), and the insured are now 91.5 yrs old on average – maturities will inevitably accelerate (peaking in 2019-20). There’s little financial risk (with an available credit facility, zero debt & cash on hand), and TLI’s focused on regular returns of capital. Sure, we can debate valuations, but shouldn’t lose sight of the big picture – as per the latest results, the portfolio now consists of $132 million in death benefits vs. a current carrying value of $45 million.

But owning such a defensive & uncorrelated investment isn’t as compelling a requirement for me today, and I see equally attractive (albeit, more correlated) opportunities elsewhere. I’ve reduced my shareholding accordingly, from 9.1% to 7.0%. [NB: I normally don’t add to individual holdings beyond a 7.5% limit – TLI remains a substantial position for me].

Wexboy Portfolio – FY-2014 Performance

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Alternative Asset Opportunities, Argo Group, Bloomberg Euro 500, emerging markets, FTSE 100, FTSE AIM All-Share, ISEQ, NTR plc, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, S&P 500, Saga Furs, value investing, VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund, Zamano

Crikey, the days are flying by already, eh?! Here we are, January’s nearly over & a FY-2014 performance review would look a bit silly in February… So let’s bang this one out: So, how did the Wexboy Portfolio perform for FY-2014? [For reference, here’s my mid-year review]. First, let’s take a peek at my usual benchmark:

Maybe this is hindsight talking, but looking at these index returns, they (nearly all) make perfect sense to me now! But duh, isn’t that true most of the time!? That is, assuming you accept momentum generally trumps value in the market…

The Irish market enjoyed the highest return, as it continues to accelerate slowly but surely out of an unprecedented recession. Of course, the recession was inevitable, but was unfortunately compounded by the foolishness of the banks & then the government itself. However, the scale & trajectory of the burgeoning recovery (now & to come) is well-deserved. Ireland may have waved goodbye to currency flexibility, but it’s one of the very few countries that still proved willing & able to take the public & private pain of radical fiscal & competitiveness adjustment, and now it’s starting to pay off in spades… [Right now, Beardy Krugman must be wishing Ireland was wiped off the map!]

The US market wasn’t far behind, though for entirely different reasons. Being the epicentre of a global financial crisis proved an excellent strategy…ideally, you end up being rewarded as the first country to subsequently escape recession! But it seems blindingly obvious the US recovery (& accompanying market rally) wouldn’t exist without the GUBU fiscal & monetary debasement we’ve witnessed. Which presents a dilemma for investors: Do you abstain, on the basis it promises an even more catastrophic disaster to come (as we’ve regularly seen since the late ’90s, as a direct consequence of the Fed’s actions & inaction)? Or do you believe the Krugmanesque fairy tale of a free lunch – government stimulus & QE really can deliver sustainable economic recovery at no perceived cost? [Hmmm, maybe a dine & dash strategy does offer a free lunch…well, ’til you’re caught!] The answer, I suppose, is the usual one:

Don’t fight the Fed!

Wexboy Portfolio – H1-2014 Performance

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alternative assets, benchmarking, Bloomberg Euro 500, correlation, diversification, FTSE 100, FTSE AIM All-Share, Irish shares, ISEQ, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, quantitative easing, S&P 500, stock ideas

OK, that’s enough TGISVP (though rubbing resource muppets’ noses in it is lots of fun) – time for the rubber to hit the road: So how did the Wexboy Portfolio make out in H1-2014?! Well, first you may want to reference my FY-2013 performance – now, let’s turn our attention to my benchmark indices:

[NB: I’ve dropped the FTSE Eurotop 100 – I can find it elsewhere, but I’m used to seeing it on Bloomberg.com & I can’t find it as a ticker any longer. I could use the EURO STOXX 50 (SX5E:IND), but that’s a ridiculously small universe of stocks, so I’ll opt for the Bloomberg Euro 500 (BE500:IND) instead – not as well known, but functionally it gets the job done.] [btw Bloomberg’s fantastic, but they have some annoying habits – on the one hand, they abruptly discard useful features, while they also add awesome new features which they barely ever highlight!? Check this out:  Bloomberg Industry Leaderboard].

A +3.4% benchmark gain isn’t too inspiring – quelle surprise, the S&P’s the only index which really makes the grade! And the individual indices don’t bode well for my own portfolio, since it’s particularly focused on the UK. In my case, that’s more about UK-listed stocks (& funds), rather than UK-exposed stocks – but in my experience, a poor FTSE performance usually weighs on both. As for the US, I suffer from the inverse – I have a decent allocation to US-exposed assets, but little exposure to US-listed assets! I also opted for the UK & Ireland as an attractive substitute for a European portfolio weighting – again, that focus may hurt me (though the ISEQ’s performance was only marginally worse). This is a fairly typical stock-picker problem:

Why make it so bloody complicated…when the simple & most obvious strategy is so often the winner?!

2012 Baker’s Dozen – More Pie!

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Argo Group, Baker's Dozen, binary outcomes, catalyst, Foo Fighters, FTSE 100, FTSE Eurotop 100, Granville, Hamlet, hedge funds, inflation, ISEQ, junior resource stocks, Livermore Investments, performance appraisal, Petroneft Resources, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, Richland Resources, risk management, S&P 500

Righto, another quarter’s done, time to check in on performance again. First, my Q1 and H1 performance reviews will provide you with some handy background & context. Second, it’s always fun to pose some questions before hitting the stats:

– Of the US/Europe/UK/Ireland, which do you think has had the worst year to date?

– And the best?

– So, did you predict your best stock winner year to date?

– Ever notice how much easier it is to predict your worst stock loser?

– Is there any lesson, or story, attached to your losses?

– Why has the average hedge fund under-performed so badly this year?

Well, hopefully I cover some/all of those questions here..!

Q1 2012 – Stock Recommendations (plus 2012 Baker’s Dozen) Outperform!

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Baker's Dozen, foreign stock listings, FTSE 100, ISEQ, Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF, Petroneft Resources, portfolio performance, S&P 500, TGISVP

Right, now we’ve had a peek at TGISVP Q1 performance, let’s also look at performance for stocks I actually own & have recommended. First, a few notes:

This is the performance that really matters! As I browse the web daily, I’m slightly disappointed to read about so many shares where the writer doesn’t own/disclose a holding. I’m far more interested in, and put a far greater weighting on, somebody writing about a share they actually own! Well, unless they’re a ‘PI‘ writing absolute bollocks on a message board..! And if they disclose their % portfolio stake, in many cases I think that tells you a lot about their conviction & risk perception regarding the stock. All too few writers share this, and I’m perplexed as to why? Yes, I’d like to see their pretty panties, but I don’t need (or want!) to see inside them... This info. gives no clue as to the absolute value of a writer’s position or portfolio (in my case, I might make a rare exception for a v thinly traded stock).