German Residential Property V – A Buy!

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Barmer Wohnungsbau, catalyst, commercial property, convergence, correlation, Deutsche Wohnen, EPRA NAV, German bunds, German property, Germany, Karl Ehlerding, KWG Kommunale Wohnen, large cap stocks, marathon, NAV, NAV discount, NAV premium, Net LTV, North Rhine-Westphalia, Price/Book, REIT/MLP sector, rental yield, residential property, Sirius Real Estate, small cap stocks, Stavros Efremidis, Taliesin, value investing

Continued from here. A 5-part series might seem like overkill – hmm, I’ve done worse 😉 – hopefully, you found something useful in each post. And, of course, I wanted to illustrate the research (& contemplation) required for any real investment edge in your stock-picking & portfolio. Peer/sector analysis may perhaps be the most rewarding component – though it drives me to distraction occasionally…

Picture it: You come across a random gem – you suspect it’s best of breed & should be pounced upon asap! Instead you take a breath, step back & force yourself to research it (and its peers) from all conceivable angles. Meanwhile, your gem’s share price begins to ascend rapidly, and you’re totally missing out… I’m suffering that with one idea I want to exploit – the apparent gem of the sector’s jumped 20%+, gahhh!

But investing isn’t a sprint, it’s an (often painful) marathon. We all remember a satisfying quick-fire buy that worked out, but we’re really just trying to forget the pain of misguided duds… Disasters we might perhaps have avoided if we’d researched them a little more, or picked the better horse. Research & patience are ultimately far more profitable than grabbing the first nice stock you see. Also, peer/sector analysis is essential to my preferred approach to investment:

Great Story, Great Stock & Great Price

German Residential Property (IV)

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Adjusted NAV, Austria, Berlin, catalyst, Colonia, commercial property, Conwert, Deutsche Wohnen, distressed assets, diversification, Estavis, Fortress Investment Group, Gagfah, German property, Germany, goodwill, Google Translate, Grand City Properties, GSW Immobilien, JK Wohnbau, MPC Capital, NAV discount, Net LTV, Patrizia, Peach Property Group, Petrus Advisers, Pretty Woman, residential property, risk management, Rolf Elgeti, Sirius Real Estate, Speymill, Strabag, student housing, TAG Immobilien, Taliesin, Unite Group, Youniq

Continued from here.

[btw The residential focus here doesn’t imply a commercial property aversion. Sure, it may be more economically sensitive than residential, but many of the positive factors I’ve highlighted equally apply. In fact, I’ve only one complaint about German commercial property – my exposure to it unfortunately limits my exposure to residential property!

I track listed commercial property companies also – but not as closely, and I’ve no plans to write a similar series. For me, Sirius Real Estate (SRE:LN) (a 3.3% portfolio holding) stands head & shoulders above its peers in terms of its risk vs. reward proposition. Its current property valuation & yield, occupancy rate, colossal 66% discount to NAV, plus the presence of multiple activist investors on its board/register, all offer significant operational & share price upside potential. SRE does have significant debt maturing in the next year, but its latest Net LTV of 61.3% equals the peer average & doesn’t appear to present any real re-financing (or other) threat to shareholders. Fresh news of property sales would quickly push Net LTV to sub-60%, highlight the current NAV discount & attract new investor attention.]

OK, first, it’s goes without saying: Keep an eye on the headlines! As the German land grab continues, and rising property share prices attract increased investor & media attention, you’ll see more companies keen to list. Peach Property Group (Deutschland) AG is currently pricing up its IPO. This is a spin-out from Peach Property Group (PEAN:SW) – Immofinanz (IIA:AV) has talked about something similar. Other stand-alone IPOs (mostly from financial sponsors) are rumoured also – such as Deutsche Annington & LEG.