2014 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part V)

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Bank of Ireland, Datalex, Falcon Oil & Gas, Galantas Gold Corp, Great Western Mining Corp, Irish shares, Irish Stock Exchange, Irish value investing, ISEQ, Ormonde Mining, Petrel Resources, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, Trinity Biotech

Continued from here:

[NB: Worth revisiting Part I if you’re a new reader, or you’d like a refresher on TGISVP & my approach to the whole project.]

Company:   Trinity Biotech

Prior Post(s):   2012 & 2013

Ticker:   TRIB:US

Price:   USD 26.55

First up, I should remind readers TRIB used to be a large holding for me. And I bloody well hung on for as long as I could – bailing out of my final tranche of shares last August, with a near 700% gain on my average net entry price & almost an 1,100% gain on my initial purchase price. Of course, I ended up leaving money on the table – it’s rallied another 30% since then! But I’m not sure I understand the investor who’s buying at today’s price… I much prefer being the investor who bought TRIB at a tenth of the price, when it was truly despised & neglected! But let’s keep an open mind – what’s a sensible valuation for the company today?

In reality, Trinity’s transformed itself (& its investor base) from value to growth in the past couple of years. Most of its cash pile has now been spent on acquisitions. [But it remains in rude financial health – generating healthy cash flow, with $22.3 million of cash & zero debt]. The Fiomi Diagnostics acquisition is coming to fruition – the company’s now ramping up sales & marketing for the actual/expected European & US approvals (in 2014/15) of its Troponin I & BNP cardiac tests. In 2013, they added a UK-based blood bank screening business & Immco Diagnostics, a US (autoimmune) diagnostics company. These are complementary businesses, they add another $16.5 M of revenue, and Immco’s business/pipeline can be quickly leveraged up (using TRIB’s existing resources) to a 20% pa growth trajectory.

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2013 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part VII)

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Aryzta, Austevoll, Bank of Ireland, Bill Ackman, Continental Farmers Group, Galantas Gold, Gillian Bowler, gold, Herbalife, IMC Exploration Group, Irish shares, Irish value investing, John Teeling, Liam McGrattan, Nial Ring, Origin Enterprises, Permanent TSB Group Holdings, Petrel Resources, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, Trinity Biotech, US Oil & Gas

Continued from here.

Company:   Petrel Resources

Prior Post:   Here

Ticker:   PET:LN

Price:   GBP 16.75p

We should include at least one John Teeling company in every TGISVP post, eh?! Believe it or not, Petrel’s been around (in one form, or another) for 30+ yrs now! This long-term chart covers less than half that period, but I think it neatly summarizes the company’s progress – or rather, lack of fucking progress, over its lifetime:

Heading Into 2013…

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Alternative Asset Opportunities, Argo Group, Asta Funding, Avangardco, correlation, EIIB, FBD Holdings, Fortress Investment Group, JPMorgan Russian Securities, KWG Kommunale Wohnen, Livermore Investments, Margin of Safety, Petroneft Resources, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, Richland Resources, shareholder activism, Sirius Real Estate, Total Produce, Trinity Biotech, Universe Group, Vietnam Opportunity Fund

There was a gratifyingly large surge of page views yesterday checking in on my 2012 Portfolio Performance! I’m suitably humbled by the attention – gulp, makes me wonder what challenges 2013 will throw up?! Hopefully the blog’s sparked a few decent ideas & stock picks for you in the last year or so, and you’re pleased with the progress of your own portfolio in 2012. It’s certainly been rewarding for me – most obviously in terms of improving my investment focus & analysis, but also in terms of the constant stream of questions, challenges, feedback, gossip, ideas, etc. from blog readers.

As a result, I now feel somewhat honour-bound to cough up some kind of 2013 Portfolio. I should immediately flag that some of you may find this a bit of a cop-out… 😦 But, in my defence, let me say:

– The start of a new year really means little to me, I don’t suddenly discover I have whole new batches of stocks to buy & sell!

– I rarely write about stocks I don’t own. This is pretty deliberate – my intention was never to simply fill up blank space with an idea each day/each week. I think people can really only judge your level of analysis & conviction against whether you actually own a stock – and, of course, by how much stock you own!

– I also don’t write about stocks I track, or discard, very much. First, mostly because they’re far too numerous! Second, I’m not sure I’d always manage a proper (in-depth) write-up about such stock(s). And third, I’ve sometimes tracked stocks every single day for literally years on end before buying – how often do you want to hear about them?!

Xmas Trimmings, etc.

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ASFI, Asta Funding, BIW, CLNY, Colony Financial, Conwert, correlation, CWI, distressed assets, FIG, financial crisis, Fortress Investment Group, intrinsic value, Karl Ehlerding, KWG Kommunale Wohnen, Leverage, majority control, Merry Xmas, Price/Book, Stavros Efremidis, TRIB, Trinity Biotech

Asta Funding (ASFI:US) $9.37:   I’ve marginally trimmed my stake from 3.8% to 3.6% – consider this to be purely risk ‘house-keeping‘. This realizes a +22% gain vs. my write-up price on this small slice, and a +31% gain vs. my actual net entry price (which inc. the impact of dividends). I never got around to an Asta follow-up, as the share price (& NAV) just steadily chugged higher. Despite the rising share price, I’ve been bemused (even encouraged) by the general air of neglect still attached to this stock. Even ASFI shareholders have expressed a distinct lack of enthusiasm for the company’s progress in the past year! This is particularly in reaction to the company’s diversification into personal injury & divorce financing. Which puzzles me…

I’d counter this distaste in a number of ways: i) This new direction was prompted by Asta’s reluctance to pay up to acquire new distressed consumer receivable portfolios*. Personally, I’m delighted – how often do you see management take an absolute, rather than a relative, approach to value? [Picking up distressed debt at 9 cts on the dollar, while everybody else pays 10 cts, doesn’t mean you’ve bagged an actual bargain!] And to resist pissing away idle cash burning a hole in their pockets is quite admirable too. Of course, returning capital (via share buybacks) is a great alternative – Asta’s pursued this to a limited degree during the year. However, considering current metrics, I consider the short term return/attraction of a buyback is fairly even balanced against the potentially higher returns on offer from a (gradual) investment of their cash into distressed assets.

Wexboy – A Birthday Post!

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Argo Group, birthday, blog traffic, bloggers, Blogroll, Fifty Shades of Grey, German property, Google, Hitler video, Interactive Investor, Kim Kardashian, Livermore Investments, meme, Millenials, pdosullivan, Petroneft Resources, pretty panties, Richard Beddard, sincere thanks, Sirius Real Estate, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, Trinity Biotech, UK Value Investor, US Oil & Gas, USOP, valueandopportunity

Wexboy reached the grand old age of one last Friday! I’m so excited I might just sick up over your shoulder! So – where were the birthday wishes? The birthday cards (c’mon, they need the biz)? The birthday gifts? Most of all, where was my bloody birthday stripper?!

Not a bad little milestone to reach. I’ve heard the average blog never makes it past the first post or two, let alone hurdle that major 3-4 month hump. Welcome to the Millenial generation, I guess. Investment (& finance) blogs appear to last a little longer, but it seems like a majority of them still go dark within a year. Blogging is definitely a pretty relentless pursuit:

It demands time, sometimes a lot of it… But most people have an actual life. Blogging will ultimately fall by the wayside, unless you figure out how to embed it into your life in a way that’s personally useful, interesting & (most of all) rewarding. Of course, most web blogs offer nothing of the sort! But that’s the beauty of investment blogs (and likely explains their longer lifespan) – they actually possess the potential to be genuinely rewarding for both writer & readers.

An investment blog also demands brain power, or at least brain engagement. If you want to do it seriously, it requires copious amounts of research, fact-checking, persuasion, debate, cognitive dissonance, and contemplation. A bit like investing itself, really! Most other blogs appear to require the opposite – but perhaps that’s just my jaundiced eye? 😉 I’d certainly be desperate to disengage my brain if I was writing about the likes of Kim Kardashian, and her bikini waxing habits…

TGISVP – Hot? Not?!

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Alpha Portfolio, Barron's, Beta Portfolio, binary outcomes, Fastnet Oil & Gas, FBD Holdings, garbage stocks, intrinsic value, junior resource stocks, Leverage, Margin of Safety, Petroneft Resources, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, risk management, Smart Alpha Portfolio, Smart Beta Portfolio, stock screener, TGISVP, Total Produce, Trinity Biotech, US Oil & Gas, value investing

In my last post, I was delighted to see the TGISVP Alpha & Beta Portfolios continue to expand their level of out-performance vs. their ISEQ benchmark. Particularly pleasing was the sight of my favourite, the Smart Alpha portfolio, far outpacing the others with a 21.1% YTD absolute return. But we’re still only 9 months into the experiment, so clearly we need a far longer horizon to confirm if this performance edge is sustainable.

It also makes me wonder if there’s a lesson to be learned here..? No, not whether value investing out-performs in the long run – I’m fully convinced of that already! [And if you’re not, please please read some of the numerous papers published on the topic]. But whether a mechanical approach is perhaps better?

Ha! No, I’m certainly not planning on becoming a stock screening convert..! But I wonder: Even if you’re a v competent & disciplined value analyst, even if you’ve conquered much of the fear & greed involved in investing, perhaps that demon mind still trips you up at that v last hurdle, or two..? When you’ve a nice stack of portfolio candidates lined up, why do you then take a shine to some & not to others? Why does one special stock really get your heart racing, far out of proportion to its obvious prospects? Why do you end up triple invested in one stock vs. another, when they both lined up pretty much even-stevens in terms of risk/reward?

Hitting The Century (V – Ireland)

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% of world GDP, Andrew Langford, COR, default, Emerald Isle, Europe, European sovereign debt crisis, Event Driven, Fairfax, FBD Holdings, Greece, home bias investing, Ireland, Irish value investing, ISEQ, Prem Watsa, Price/Book, Return on Equity, taxes, Thatcher, Total Produce, Trinity Biotech, UK, Wilbur Ross

Continued from here. OK, let’s take a look at my next investment allocation:

Ireland (16%):   So much for all my rabbiting on about home-bias, what a terrible job I’ve done here..! Ireland accounts for a whopping great 0.3% of world GDP, and yet I’ve got 16% of my portfolio invested in the Emerald Isle (yes, please visit, all tourist revenues gladly accepted)!? OK, so, in my defence:

i) C’mon, everybody’s doing it! I’m confident 16% is far lower than the average Irish investor (and US investors are just as bad – how many realize US GDP is now just 22% of world GDP?).

ii) As Philip O’Sullivan (taking off the green jersey?!) reminded me, these stock picks are not that Irish anyway! Total Produce (TOT:ID/LN) is essentially pan-European, Trinity Biotech (TRIB:US) operates primarily in the US (& Europe) – I guess FBD Holdings (FBD:ID, FBH:LN) is my only true Irish exposure!

Hitting The Century (III)

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Argo Group, Avangardco, dividend coverage, dividend yield, EIIB, Ex-Cash Ratios, FBD Holdings, Net LTV, P/E ratio, Petroneft Resources, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, Price/Book, Price/Sales, TGISVP, Total Produce, Trinity Biotech, Wordpress

Damn WordPress! If you viewed/received a similar Century (Part III) post (since deleted), please ignore it – it was just a draft & I’ve updated/revised figures across the board since. Not quite sure how WordPress managed to publish it for me..!

Right, continued from here. In my last post I promised: ‘OK, next I’ll take you through each of my investment allocations – and try to give a flavour of my thinking, and some underlying stocks/funds, in each instance‘. However, I’ve just completed a detailed quarter-end portfolio update/review, so let’s flip things ’round – perhaps you’d be interested in a timely look at some portfolio metrics¹, and we’ll return to investment allocations in my next post?

Yes, really? So you like the pretty panties, but you still want to know the damn cost..?! Sigh, value investors..! OK:

How About Another Catalyst? (Part IX)

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Anhui Chaodong Cement, catalyst, David Wong, Dhir India, FBD Holdings, German bunds, intrinsic value, major sale, NAV discount, Ovoca Gold, Polymetal, Prosperity Minerals Holdings, Sirius Real Estate, takeover offers, Tim McCutcheon, Trinity Biotech, wind-down

Continued from here. We were looking at a major sale as another catalyst.

Recently, I confess I’ve been less focused on this (and my next) catalyst. No bad reflection, it simply reflects my ‘bar-bell‘ approach – investing in lower-risk catalyst situations nicely balances out higher risk positions (like emerging & frontier market equities, as most would characterize them). This can mean higher risk catalyst stocks get crowded out of my portfolio… But if I want to shift overall risk lower, as I suspect I’ll continue to do, this catalyst category should make a nice comeback in my riskier portfolio allocation. Let’s illustrate with some examples:

i) I did a Dhir India (DHIR:LN, delisted) writeup last November. An initial catalyst attracted my attention in September – in their Final Results they stated: ‘…The Board has decided to seek to accelerate the process of returning value to shareholders through a review of the investment and realisation strategy and over the next twelve months steps will be taken to try and achieve this aim‘. Not quite definitive, but this obviously offered a wind-down strategy as a catalyst.

A Brief Diagnostic on Trinity Biotech

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Ex-Cash Ratios, intrinsic value, Medical Devices/Diagnostics, share repurchase, technical analysis, Trinity Biotech

I last wrote about Trinity Biotech (TRIB:US) here.

Since then, we’ve been rewarded with another good set of (Q1 2012) results – more good news-flow, plus steady progress on the sales & earnings front. The Boys from Bray really do continue to deliver! The shares have just gone xd, and an annual dividend of $0.15 per ADR will be paid on June 22nd. This is small (a 1.3% dividend yield) vs. the share price & their current cash pile (about $3.60 per ADR), but the 50% yoy increase is a confident signal. TRIB also confirmed their intention to continue with open market share repurchases up to a max. of about $25 mio, around 10% of their current market cap. Here’s their latest investor relations presentation.