Heading Into 2013…

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Alternative Asset Opportunities, Argo Group, Asta Funding, Avangardco, correlation, EIIB, FBD Holdings, Fortress Investment Group, JPMorgan Russian Securities, KWG Kommunale Wohnen, Livermore Investments, Margin of Safety, Petroneft Resources, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, Richland Resources, shareholder activism, Sirius Real Estate, Total Produce, Trinity Biotech, Universe Group, Vietnam Opportunity Fund

There was a gratifyingly large surge of page views yesterday checking in on my 2012 Portfolio Performance! I’m suitably humbled by the attention – gulp, makes me wonder what challenges 2013 will throw up?! Hopefully the blog’s sparked a few decent ideas & stock picks for you in the last year or so, and you’re pleased with the progress of your own portfolio in 2012. It’s certainly been rewarding for me – most obviously in terms of improving my investment focus & analysis, but also in terms of the constant stream of questions, challenges, feedback, gossip, ideas, etc. from blog readers.

As a result, I now feel somewhat honour-bound to cough up some kind of 2013 Portfolio. I should immediately flag that some of you may find this a bit of a cop-out… 😦 But, in my defence, let me say:

– The start of a new year really means little to me, I don’t suddenly discover I have whole new batches of stocks to buy & sell!

– I rarely write about stocks I don’t own. This is pretty deliberate – my intention was never to simply fill up blank space with an idea each day/each week. I think people can really only judge your level of analysis & conviction against whether you actually own a stock – and, of course, by how much stock you own!

– I also don’t write about stocks I track, or discard, very much. First, mostly because they’re far too numerous! Second, I’m not sure I’d always manage a proper (in-depth) write-up about such stock(s). And third, I’ve sometimes tracked stocks every single day for literally years on end before buying – how often do you want to hear about them?!

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From Russia With Love (Part II)

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Aurora Russia, Baring Emerging Europe, closed-end funds, emerging markets, frontier markets, infrastructure, JPMorgan Russian Securities, Mongolia, Origo Partners, Prosperity Voskhod Fund, QE, Renaissance Russia Infrastructure Equities, Russia, Templeton Russia & East European Fund, Vietnam Infrastructure, Vietnam Opportunity Fund

Continued from here:     So why the interest in Russia? Well, for me, pretty much any emerging/frontier market’s preferable to those in the developed world these days! Everywhere I look, I see better growth, better demographics, better government finances, lower debt and no currency debasement… And all this for stock market valuations that are similar to/cheaper than Western markets. There are a number of markets I feel are particularly attractive – for example, I’ve highlighted Vinacapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund (VOF:LN) before as a good stock pick for exposure to Vietnam. With my continuing bullish view on oil and other commodities (and the inflation risks posed by global QE), Russia presents a compelling market opportunity.

So how does Russia actually stack up these days? Well, first one needs to realize how far it’s come. In the past 10 years GDP has more than quintupled, Russia’s now a Top 10 global economy, and average GDP per capita (in nominal terms) is around $16,700. This last stat’s v interesting – $17 K goes pretty far in what’s still an emerging market, and it explains the booming Russian middle class, something many investors have under-estimated.

Happy New Year! – A (Baker’s) Dozen for 2012

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Argo Group, Asta Funding, Avangardco, Colony Financial, Cresud, Dhir India, EIIB, FBD Holdings, Livermore Investments, pdosullivan, Petroneft Resources, Sirius Real Estate, Total Produce, Trinity Biotech, Vietnam Opportunity Fund

Philip O’Sullivan kicked us all off here with his list of picks for 2012, and so far I’ve seen John Kingham and Mark Carter join in with their contributions here. Note John can only win half of the (non-existent!) prize since he came up with 2 lists…

I struggled with the idea a little myself – I’d far prefer to write 1,200 words about 1 stock than to write 1 list, haha! I also dread seeing shoot-for-the-moon lists (congrats so far, chaps) stuffed full of triple leverage ETFs and penny dreadfuls – not much use to any of us in the real world.