Irish Shares 2012 – The Good & The Bad

Tags

Aer Lingus, FBD Holdings, Greencore, Irish shares, Petrel Resources, Petroneft Resources, Providence Resources, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, Total Produce, US Oil & Gas, Worldspreads

I’m just finalizing my review of The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (TGISVP) for 2012. My end-Q3 review is here & here for reference (and this post’s relevant also – it may even offer some interesting commentary on general stock selection & valuation). In this post I’ll cover last year’s winners & losers.

NB: FY 2012 performance is TGISVP specific, i.e. it’s only measured from the specific date I set a target price for each stock in Q1 2012. [Apologies if you’d prefer actual FY 2012 stock performances – but I’m sure there would be a high degree of overlap, anyway]. There’s no M&A to highlight for Q4 – the only items of note are i) United Drug (UDG:LN) abandoned its Irish listing in favour of London, and ii) Elan (ELN:US) spun out its drug-discovery unit, Prothena Corp (PRTA:US) – but the impact for shareholders was minimal.

Here’s the 2012 Top 10 Winners:

Advertisement

TGISVP, Q3 2012 YTD Performance (I)

Tags

Aer Lingus, Alpha Portfolio, Beta Portfolio, Cove Energy, CPL Resources, Datalex, Fastnet Oil & Gas, FBD Holdings, garbage stocks, junior resource stocks, performance appraisal, Petroneft Resources, portfolio performance, Prime Active Capital, Providence Resources, Siteserv, TGISVP, US Oil & Gas, Worldspreads

Now Q3 2012 is over, it’s time to revisit The Great Irish Share Valuation Project. Here’s my H1 2012 performance post, for reference.

First, note there’s been 1 de-listing – we already had the heads-up on it last quarter: Cove Energy (COV:LN) was taken out for GBP 240p in cash per share by PTTEP (PTTEP:TB). A marvelous result for most shareholders, except for a few over-enthusiastic latecomers that bid the shares up to GBP 270p+ in the dying days of a Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB:LN) vs. PTTEP tussle. [I’ll continue to include Cove – at its final GBP 240p value – for performance purposes for the rest of the year].

Note: Q3 2012 YTD performance for each stock is TGISVP specific – that is, performance is measured from the specific date (in Q1) I set a target price for each stock. [Apologies if you’d prefer to see actual YTD performance for all stocks – but I suspect there’d be a high degree of overlap in the winners & losers, anyway].

TGISVP – H1 2012 Performance – Firing On all Cylinders!

Tags

Aer Lingus, AGI Therapeutics, Alpha Portfolio, Beta Portfolio, Botswana Diamonds, Cove Energy, Datalex, ISEQ, Karelian Diamond Resources, market-neutral, natural resource stocks, Ovoca Gold, Petroneft Resources, portfolio performance, Prime Active Capital, Providence Resources, Readymix, Risk Arbitrage, Siteser, Smart Alpha Portfolio, Smart Beta Portfolio, TGISVP, Worldspreads

Now H1 2012 is over, it’s time to revisit The Great Irish Share Valuation Project. Here’s my Q1 2012 performance post – well worth revisiting as background, but I’ll recap some important points below.

Let’s first look at individual stocks. I count 4 de-listings (which I’ll continue to include for performance purposes, at their final values): AGI Therapeutics (AGI:ID/LN) was a profitable Event-Driven investment for me, and inspiration for some detailed Risk Arb. posts. Siteserv (SSV:ID/LN) & Worldspreads (WSPR:LN/ID) both exited amid scandal – possibly criminal in the case of the latter, with alleged charges now including share price manipulation, in addition to accounting/actual fraud. Finally, Readymix (RYX:ID) succumbed to a Cemex (CX:US) bid, illustrating that the right investment thesis (an eventual takeout by the controlling shareholder) is not enough. Timing & the price you pay are equally important – despite the bid premium, RYX’s multi-year operational & price decline meant v few long term shareholders made any profit. Looking ahead, Cove Energy (COV:LN) seems set to follow the de-listers, but promises to provide some final drama!

7.7% Q1 2012 Outperformance! – TGISVP XI

Tags

AGI Therapeutics, Alpha Portfolio, Beta Portfolio, Conroy Gold, hedge funds, ISEQ, junior resource stocks, market-neutral, portfolio performance, Prime Active Capital, Siteserv, Smart Alpha Portfolio, Smart Beta Portfolio, TGISVP, Worldspreads

It’s early days yet but, rather serendipitously, I managed to complete the valuation stage of The Great Irish Share Valuation Project by quarter-end. That deserves a performance review, I guess..?!

Let’s first take a look at individual stock performance. btw I mentioned I’ve completed 72 Irish stock valuations, but I’ll continue to include AGI Therapeutics (which was taken over) as a 73rd stock for performance purposes. And remember, Gainers/Losers are based on quarter-end prices vs. the original market prices I noted (as I worked my way through each stock’s valuation in Jan-March). Therefore, this is a TGISVP specific performance snapshot, I’m not attempting a full Q1 stock performance ranking here (though I’d expect they would be pretty similar):

The Great Irish Share Valuation Project IX

Tags

2P Reserves, Alkermes, Amarin, Anadarko, Andor Technology, Botswana Diamonds, Circle Oil, Clontarf Energy, Connemara Mining, Cooley Distillery, Cove Energy, Dragon Oil, Escher Group, Galantas Gold, Interior Services Group, iShares MSCI Ireland ETF, Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Jim Beam, John Teeling, Kentz, Minco, Ovoca Gold, Petrel Resources, PTT, Royal Dutch Shell, Siteserv, TGISVP, Tullow Oil, USPS, Worldspreads, Xstrata, Xtierra

Continued from here.

As I’ve mentioned, we’ve another 20 odd non-ISEQ listed Irish stocks to work through still. I should first note I’ve eliminated Alkermes (ALKS:US) and Amarin (AMRN:US) (and Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ:US) never even made the cut*). Clearly, an Ireland HQ is particularly attractive for pharma companies! Any reader care to enlighten us further..? I wasn’t fooled by this shell game, but they had some Irish directors/management/locations, so I planned to include them in TGISVP. Now I look again, their Irish ‘representation‘ is pretty small, and sure to get even smaller… So they’re out – unless someone wants to email and persuade me otherwise!?

I’ve also revised valuations for Worldspreads (WSPR:LN) and Siteserv (SSV:LN) – in fact, they kind of swap places in the rankings! I was briefly commenting here on both companies, and their respective scandals, and it got a little out of control..! I had to upgrade to a separate article. Note I’m keeping a file of all original share prices and valuations, which I’ll use for any performance/evaluation exercises at a later date. Right, let’s see if we find anything interesting in this batch:

You’ve Got to Pick-A-Pocket or Two…

Tags

Charlie McCreevy, Denis O'Brien, IBRC, IG Index, Phoenix magazine, segregated accounts, Siteserv, TGISVP, Worldspreads

Here’s Oliver!

I was working on my next set (non-ISEQ listed Irish stocks) of valuations for The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, and realized there were two very obvious revisions I needed to make… Yup, in my next TGISVP post, I’ll be adjusting the valuations for Siteserv (SSV:ID) and Worldspreads (WSPR:LN), after two scandals in a single bloody day! How do I express my sheer disgust here..?!

Let’s start with Siteserv:

The Great Irish Share Valuation Project V

Tags

Better Capital, Dart Group, FL Partners, Irish Continental, Jon Moulton, Marketspreads, Paddy Power, Pageant Holdings, Petroneft Resources, Ryanair, Siteserv, Smurfit Kappa, TGISVP, Total Produce, Tullow Oil, TVC Holdings, United Drug, UTV Media, Worldspreads, Zamano

Continued from here:

Before tackling the next batch of stocks, some readers may want to revisit my first TGISVP post. This project’s not about doing a detailed writeup/valuation on each stock. Sure, I spend ample time on each stock (on a best efforts basis)**, but less than if I were making an investment and/or doing a detailed writeup. That’s why I label these rough and ready valuations! On average, yes I’d expect detailed and rough & ready valuations to be similar, but ‘average‘ is key here..! Take a closer look at any company, and my new valuation could be (possibly significantly) higher, lower or unchanged vs. my original valuation.

What this project is designed to do: i) Illustrate the wide variety of valuation assumptions/approaches that can be applied depending on each individual company/situation, and ii) provide a cheatsheet to highlight the potentially best (and worst!) Irish stocks, on an absolute (or relative) basis, that may merit further research and potential purchase/sale.