36 thoughts on “CONTACT”

  1. Hi Wexboy
    Found your Blog a few days ago and i am slowly making my way through the posts , . some really good stuff in there .Thanks for taking the time to explain your thought process .
    Assuming you still live in Ireland do you have any thoughts on investing via the EII scheme( via the DAVY/BDO/Goodbody products) ? Just wondering if you think the the potential capped returns( max of about ~15% IRR) justify the risk assumed ?

    I understand if you cant/don’t answer reader questions , so feel free to ignore mine if so.


    • Hi Chris,

      Sorry for the delay in getting to this…glad you’re enjoying the blog.

      In my opinion, the only thing going for tax deals is the tax relief itself. Irish companies, promoters & advisers have always grabbed an egregious share of the tax spoils for themselves, so these deals are usually incapable of justifying themselves as straightforward investments if you ignore the tax angle – they offer asymmetric risk/reward, and poor ex-tax returns. That being said, I have done tax-driven deals before, but only where I believed my downside was actually covered/protected, and only when I treated them as just another investment or two in a well-diversified portfolio.

      In the end, if you can’t get comfortable with an investment proposition on its own merits, the tax angle shouldn’t persuade you…nor should commission-driven salespeople, and/or arbitrary tax & closing date deadlines. Better to wait ’round and/or look for a better opportunity.



  2. Donal Farren said:

    Hi Wexboy
    Really like your blog . I have a small position in ARGO I am down 50 %. Share price seems to be going down alot lately. They also stop paying dividends Do you know what happening there or have you exited ARGO.
    I am doing well with donegal Investment Group (local to Me) Keep up the good work You write with clarity and common sense. Good Luck in 2015.

    Kind Regards

    • Thanks Donal,

      With the defunct dividend, and Argo management’s poor/non-existent IR efforts, there’s been a slow & steady exit of frustrated investors. Like many similar situations, they don’t see much possibility of a value-realising event here. Well, until it happens, that is..!? I continue to maintain my position & to pursue an enhancement/realisation of shareholder value here – there are potential buyers for the business out there. I’d appreciate if you’d email me with your exact shareholding & your support.

      Yes, Donegal’s a far easier position to hold! I’d prefer they retain their Monaghan Mushrooms stake, but the court case endorses my sum-of-the-parts valuation, and a transaction would be a significant liquidity/value event for Donegal shareholders.

      Good luck,


  3. i read your article on tullow oil since than i have avoid buying tullow oil when it was at 1000p. i wonder what is you view on tullow oil @380p given low oil price.

    • desai,

      My TLW price target was as low as 339p in 2012, but has averaged about 500p for both 2013 & 2014. That’s based on an underlying $10 per proved in-the-ground (/water) boe long-term valuation metric, which I’d be slow to change. [I didn’t raise this metric when oil soared to $120-25 – at this point, I wouldn’t lower it yet to reflect a $60 spot price either].

      So yes, I’d consider TLW good value here…from an asset/long-term perspective! Obviously, I can’t predict the near/medium-term direction of oil, or investor sentiment towards TLW & the oil sector – remember TLW’s revenues & profitability will decline substantially, so investors may choose to focus on that for quite some time to come, rather than the long-term value of TLW’s reserves & resources.



  4. Andrew Fielding said:

    A diasappointing outcome on Monaghan, above book value, but they may try to buy the stake, but good for a cash dividend!

    • Andrew,

      My problem isn’t the valuation (it’s similar to my most recent valuation, as of today that is…), it’s the entire situation! All things being equal, I believe MMM can/will be a far more valuable company in a few years on revenue growth and/or margin expansion – so the last thing I want is to see is that opportunity lost for Donegal & its shareholders.

      On the other hand, if Donegal’s stake ends up sold & that money is used to fund a tender offer (and I mean ALL of it, the company’s current net debt is already very manageable), that would represent an attractive return of capital – and based on the current share price, it would also significantly enhance intrinsic value per share.



  5. Hi Wexboy,

    Great blog and very informative. Unfortunately I am pretty much a novice at this stuff and already making mistakes – so much opinion out there….

    I have been researching Petroneft Resources and am of the mind there is good upside potential there… have you considered this at all?


  6. Simon F Cummins said:

    Wexboy I am following your blogs on PTR. When will you be updating same after the 50% farm-out to Oil of India of Licence 61 which was approved at an EGM on the 9/5/2014.

  7. Wexboy
    you seem to have got INM completely wrong… it’s now worth 5x what it was… any further thoughts? when it comes to the media business it might be worth looking at ebitda. their ownership of APN also looks interesting.

    • KKG,

      Well forgive me for not realizing we were in topsy-turvy land…where creditors & the pension fund take a substantial haircut, and shareholders don’t get wiped out!? That’s where all the extra value for shareholders is coming from… [And they’re not out of the woods yet, by any means – post-restructuring, their numbers still look pretty awful.] I guess Obamanomics has become well & truly embedded now in Ireland (look at the Siteserv deal, another great example).

      I tend to avoid EBITDA myself – I call it ‘imaginary cash flow’. Or ‘bullshit earnings’, as Charlie Munger would say. This is particularly useful when it comes to INM, where cash flow bears precious little relationship to EBITDA, the P&L or even management commentary.

      And the ownership of APN is no longer interesting – I’ve grown very bored watching a completely distressed company hang on to an asset they should have sold years ago!



  8. Cautious Tom said:

    Wexboy, have read your interesting update re Ptr. I think ur price per barrel is a bit high but hope u are correct. If a positive farm out occurs and sorts out finance issues do you see Ptr at multiples of current SP? Am a long term holder / sufferer. I think the management are poor at communication but trust them. What wud it need to spark institutional interest again iyho. Thanks. Cautious

    • Tom,

      Thanks! In the end, a barrel of oil is a barrel of oil, no matter where it’s located..! And the power of arbitrage tends to eliminate price & value differentials in due course. My in-the-ground pricing changes very slowly over the years, it’s not necessarily supposed to reflect the above-ground situation in terms of price, politics, regulation, etc. – these all change over time, sometimes abruptly. Anyway, you’ll note PTR has very large possible reserves etc. – I don’t put any value on these, whereas most brokers probably would, so that gives me plenty of flexibility on my proved & probable reserve valuation.

      Management were great communicators when the going was good…not so much now! A farm-out would obviously help, as would increasing production, but ending up with at least a year of cash-burn on hand (and/or positive cash flow) – however that might occur – is what could really transform (i.e. multiply) the current PTR share price. That would also get the institutions interested again, plus a GBP 50-75 million+ market cap would help too.



  9. read your blog…really admire your work.
    i am also a private investor from HK. personally interested in stock valuation. but just started my valuation/ investment journey. appreciate to everyone to share/comment/read my blog


  10. Hi Wexboy,
    why did you purchase Total Produce in Dublin with 1% Stamp Duty and not in London (0,5% Stamp Duty) or Nasdaq grey market (no stamp duty)? I am very strongly considering buying but I am not sure where to buy. Thanks for your analysis. Nasdaq OTC seems to have the lowest price (TTPPF).

    • Hi Martin – yes, I compare Irish vs. London market (and have bought on one & sold the same shares on the other). I didn’t expect the US OTC quote would have any decent volume – thks for pointing it out, volume’s not bad actually! Just goes to prove you should always check every alternative!

      Generally, I’ll buy where all-in cost is cheapest. Irish market may be superior – i) it offers (in theory!) the most volume, which helps, ii) offer is the best you can get on lots of London listed shares, but it’s easy (bt chk w/ your broker) to place bids on the Irish market – so Irish all-in price is often much better.

      I’ve seen strange (delayed?) London prices occasionally, and have taken advantage – but if you can’t beat the offer, it’s usually not worth it. I agree US price looks best, but I don’t see the typical bid-ask, which cd present a problem. Possibly your broker will/can push through a bid on the US stock quote..?

      btw If you can hold various currencies with your broker, and depending on the FX spread/charge they assess, selling/buying via multiple quotes/listings may be an efficient way to transact FX or to change your FX exposure.

      • Hi Wexboy,
        thanks for your impressions. I have used Dublin, because as you said the price was better due to:

        I didn’t know and personally can’t verify: Even if you bought in London you would have to pay the 1% irish stamp duty.

        OTC Nasdaq would have been possible but my broker can’t guarentee execution. Many orders seem to be canceled. Maybe I will look into opening an US based account, but alone for total produce it is not worth the effort.

  11. Don’t agree with your summary on PCI, as it assumes the cashburn carries on? That is very unlikely, as each farm out reduces its percentage, and exploration drilling at Isarene has been concluded with a development plan to follow? Historic spend in the past is no guide to spend for the future, and where each farmout reduces PCI’s pro rata spend, and increases its cash

    • Jack,

      I think in most resource stocks, any relief on cash spend will be replaced by fresh production spend or development spend elsewhere – after all, management surely don’t want investors getting used to a lower spend…!? It’s like spending the rest of your budget in the corporate world before year-end, or else it will be cut the following year!

      You may well be right here specifically with PCI, farmouts certainly are often a smart way to move forward, it will be interesting to see developments. I prefer to stick with a conservative assumption as it leaves some extra room for positive news and/or revaluation.



  12. Hi Wexboy
    I like your blog. And the design too. You obviously have an in-depth knowledge of Balance Sheet accounting etc. I’m getting there. I also use technical analysis. I know I shouldn’t!
    I run a site called shareladder.com. It’s mainly behind a paywall but I can get you a free login.
    Anyway, the point is that I’m looking for someone to contribute to our monthly newsletter ongoing which goes out to our subscribers. Best of all, we’re based in Ireland…well Donegal actually but with subscribers from Munster in the main.
    I can pay a wee bit too. I don’t mind you using the content elsewhere either (such as on yr blog!). My site has a Value ethos with a nod to Growth /Zulu shares on the side.
    Let me know what you think


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 1,467 other followers