• ABOUT
  • CONTACT
  • DISCLAIMER!!!

Wexboy

~ A Value Investing Blog

Wexboy

Monthly Archives: April 2012

AGI Therapeutics – Anatomy of a Takeover (III)

30 Monday Apr 2012

Posted by Wexboy in Uncategorized

≈ Comments Off on AGI Therapeutics – Anatomy of a Takeover (III)

Tags

AGI Therapeutics, currency allocation, denarii, Event Driven, Expected Value, FX rates, Gross IRR, Gross Return, home bias investing, probabilities, Recommended Cash Offer, takeover offers

Continued from here.

Expected Return‘s probably the most important, and most difficult, return to calculate & focus on. In its simplest form, it’s binary (deal success or failure), but by all means incorporate multiple outcomes into your analysis, if appropriate. In fact, if you’re contemplating other types of Event Driven investing, this multiple outcome approach will prove essential. However many outcomes, you calculate a Gross Return and a likely probability (which must sum to 1.00, of course) for each, and then combine these to arrive at an Expected Return. This will give you a much more accurate (and lower) deal return. Of course, you won’t actually see this return on any single deal – but over time, this is the best risk/reward measure to employ to evaluate deals & your potential average return. Of course, you can calculate an Expected IRR also, if you wish, but let’s not go crazy here..!

Continue reading →

Advertisement

AGI Therapeutics – Anatomy of a Takeover (II)

24 Tuesday Apr 2012

Posted by Wexboy in Uncategorized

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

AGI Therapeutics, binary outcomes, Gross IRR, Gross Return, intangibles, intrinsic value, John Paulson, junior resource stocks, Risk Arbitrage, Warner Chilcott, Warren Buffett

Continued from here. OK, we’ve run through the key components of the AGI Therapeutics (AGI:ID/LN) offer. You now have a pretty good idea of the terms, attractiveness, timeline and likely success of this deal. But how does it stack up from an investment perspective? Well, as I said, let’s not approach this backwards – as with any investment, no matter your excitement or conviction about the company/stock story, intrinsic valuation comes first:

AGI’s most recent balance sheet (Jun-11) is pretty simple – they’ve $9.251 mio of Cash on hand, while Net Payables of about $0.3 mio are offset by a subsequent sale of patents to Warner Chilcott (WCRX:US) for about $0.3 mio also. This sale probably wiped out some/all of the $0.241 mio in recorded Intangibles, and there’s really nothing else to the B/S. btw I tend to ignore balance sheet Goodwill/Intangibles/etc. anyway when calculating Intrinsic Value. You should be able to confirm/calculate the value of intangibles from other sources – like reserve reports, industry comps, superior/sustainable earnings etc. – if you can’t, it’s usually best to ignore these ‘assets‘ (try tell this to your average junior resource company investor, sigh…).

Continue reading →

Avangardco Eggcelerating!

20 Friday Apr 2012

Posted by Wexboy in Uncategorized

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

agri-business, Angry Birds, Avangardco, Chuckie Egg, eggs, IPO, Oleg Bakhmatyuk, platformers, trading update, Ukraine, Ukrlandfarming, US ADR program

Please see my recent Avangardco (AVGR:LN) post here. Since then, it’s been interesting to see Bakhmatyuk engaging more actively with the media, for example here and here. Definitely seems to be part of a gradual ramp-up to an IPO for Ukrlandfarming (Ukr) – looks like further news may even come as early as end-May. We still don’t have any real hard info, though, but I’m encouraged by positive noises to date from the company & Bakhmatyuk, and by his explicit pairing of Avangardco & Ukr (eggs & grain) in recent comments/interviews.

However, it’s obvious a significant number of shareholders (potential, or actual) will continue to view this as a stock negative until there’s a specific transaction & terms on the table to evaluate. Ironically, a counterweight to this might well be a potential Ukr transaction itself! The buzz & analyst/media blitz ahead of an IPO would be sure to generate plenty of good publicity/attention for Avangardco also. As I’ve mentioned before, fair/preferential treatment of Avangardco shareholders in a potential Ukr transaction is essential, and would provide valuable support to Bakhmatyuk in pursuit of his longer-term ambitions. Continued maintenance of a foreign listing‘s essential also (in London, obviously, but adding a US ADR program might be attractive eventually).

Continue reading →

AGI Therapeutics – Anatomy of a Takeover (I)

20 Friday Apr 2012

Posted by Wexboy in Uncategorized

≈ 4 Comments

Tags

AGI Therapeutics, Ark Therapeutics, Carl Icahn, catalyst, Daniel Loeb, Recommended Cash Offer, Risk Arbitrage, Seth Klarman, TGISVP

This post, and this one here, are good required reading. Yes, AGI Therapeutics (AGI:ID/LN) was the Risk Arb investment to which I was referring.

This is the one Irish share I did not disclose owning during TGISVP. My apologies, readers – but AGI trading volumes were atrocious, and I was still building a position with great difficulty. However, when I got to covering AGI during TGISVP, I simply tagged its fair value as simply being equal to the Recommended Cash Offer – so no issues there, I believe. Now that I recently received my final batch of proceeds from the AGI takeover, I thought it might be useful/interesting to walk through my thinking and exact positioning throughout the process.

Continue reading →

Nope, Not Going Any Further with that Drag Queen..!

17 Tuesday Apr 2012

Posted by Wexboy in Uncategorized

≈ 4 Comments

Tags

agri-business, Argentina, Boy's Own, CDS spreads, Cresud, Cristina Kirchner, drag queens, Falkland Islands, farmland, intrinsic value, Margin of Safety, nationalization, Repsol YPF, Sell in May, spring cleaning, Trinity Biotech, YPF

Remember that twisted Boy’s Own holiday you took with your mates a couple of years back? You know the one, when you ended up in that very dodgy club? Yes, yes, I know it’s all a little hazy. I mean the club where the performers turned out to have a little extra..?!

Remember that blonde & the brunette?! No, not like that, I really think it was more like this. Ah yes, it’s all coming back to you now… So, do you remember when that drag queen sat in your lap, wriggled and muttered something dirty to you? And you were terrified…but strangely aroused also? Yes, shameful, I know – now stop dreaming about it.

Continue reading →

US Economy, Government Finances & Debt – Some of the Gory Details (II)

17 Tuesday Apr 2012

Posted by Wexboy in Uncategorized

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

% of world GDP, EU economy, Euro Area economy, OECD, US economy, US government finances, US taxes

Continued from here:

OK, we’ve looked at US GDP and US government revenues (taxes) so far. The general observation to make is that US taxes have broadly declined as a % of GDP in the past 60 years. This is particularly true of corporate income taxes, despite high headline tax rates. The corporate tax take (as a % of GDP) has declined almost 75% in the same period due to powerful lobbying, more aggressive domestic tax strategies and the booking of v significant profits in low tax overseas subsidiaries. In a global context, the total tax take in the US is among the lowest in the developed world.

So what about government spending..?! Put your gloves on, let’s dig into the guts:

Continue reading →

US Economy, Government Finances & Debt – Some of the Gory Details (I)

15 Sunday Apr 2012

Posted by Wexboy in Uncategorized

≈ 2 Comments

Tags

% of world GDP, EU economy, Euro Area economy, US economy, US government finances, US taxes

US government finances (and the US economy):  Maybe I’m slow, but I just can’t get an accurate fix on what’s fact or fiction. Everything I read on the web, or hear from our so well informed media, seems to conflict or is agenda-driven, ill-informed or even just plain wrong. And, God forbid, I try my best to pay zero attention to anything emanating from a politician..!

I’ve reached the point where I really need a bit of a sanity check on all this. Why am I focusing on the US government (and economy)? Well, it’s the largest global economy by far, and it affects every one of us around the world in our daily lives (as the financial crisis illustrated in such a ghastly manner) – whither America goes, the rest of the world follows…

Continue reading →

The Great Irish Share Valuation Project XII – Thank You!

13 Friday Apr 2012

Posted by Wexboy in Uncategorized

≈ 6 Comments

Tags

TGISVP

Many readers have been kind enough to pass along their feedback & appreciation re TGISVP by email, comments and/or across the message boards! Many thanks to all of you 🙂

I should have done this much sooner – here’s a small selection of some of the best comments (btw not my spelling etc., and I’m not bothering with attributions – but if you want them, just ask):

Continue reading →

EIIB – So, You Want to Run a Marathon..?!

11 Wednesday Apr 2012

Posted by Wexboy in Uncategorized

≈ Comments Off on EIIB – So, You Want to Run a Marathon..?!

Tags

Damille, DiamondCorp, discount control mechanism, doughnut boy, EIIB, HBG Holdings, Laxey, marathon, NAV discount, Qannas Investments, quid pro quo, QVT, Rasmala, share buyback, sukuk, tender offer, Total Expense Ratio, track & field, Weiss

C’mon, you’re kidding..? No, seriously, you’re taking the mickey?! In March, the European Islamic Investment Bank (EIIB:LN) (which I last wrote about here) share price looked ready to challenge the GBP 3.9-4.25p resistance zone. This has capped EIIB for almost 3 years now. But here we are, 1 month later, and the price hit GBP 2.8p just in time for Easter – off 24%! No change in volume, or holdings…what’s going on?! And it’s not clear the board have noticed… But I’m sure they’re well aware of EIIB’s intrinsic value, and are focused on the marathon task of their new operating strategy…

All very well but, as any health professional will tell you, before embarking on (and to be successful in) a marathon, you should first do a health check and then scale up with plenty of walking, exercise, jogging, running and even some fartlek. So health check first, then track & field, and then marathon..! But the current share price (and NAV discount) certainly don’t present a healthy diagnosis of the budding athlete…

Continue reading →

Shiteserv

07 Saturday Apr 2012

Posted by Wexboy in Uncategorized

≈ 2 Comments

Tags

Altrad, IBRC, Michael Noonan, Mike Aynsley, Namawinelake, Political World, Robert Dix, Siteserv

i) Here are the latest Siteserv (SSV:ID/LN) developments:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/65ea45ec-7f2a-11e1-a26e-00144feab49a.html#axzz1rM9GApGj

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/altrad-made-higher-offer-of-60m-siteserv-egm-is-told-3073345.html

Continue reading →

← Older posts

Enter email address to track this blog by email.

Join 2,326 other subscribers

Wexboy on Twitter:

  • NEW Blog Post: FY-2022 Portfolio Performance & Review… $REC.L $KR1.AQ $GOOGL $VOF.L $TFG.AS $DQ7A.IR $SAGCV.HE… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 1 hour ago
  • NEW BLOG POST: FY-2022 Portfolio Performance & Review… …Post-Pandemic Hangover: wexboy.wordpress.com/2023/01/31/202… $REC.L… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 10 hours ago
  • Nah, you’re crying… 🥹 …the Light Balance Kids from #Ukraine win a Golden Buzzer: m.youtube.com/watch?v=lpLfyR… 19 hours ago
  • If credit card co’s/fees disappeared overnight, all the bars, cafes, restaurants & stores wd immediately drop their… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 19 hours ago
Follow @Wexboy_Value

Wexboy Top Posts

  • 2022...Post-Pandemic Hangover
  • KR1 plc...The #Crypto #Alpha Bet
  • 2021...Wow, Another Crazy (Good) Year!
  • NTR plc - Breezin' Right Along...
  • A Letter to the CEO (& Board) of European Islamic Investment Bank

Wexboy Archives

  • January 2023
  • January 2022
  • November 2021
  • July 2021
  • January 2021
  • November 2020
  • July 2020
  • January 2020
  • December 2019
  • July 2019
  • January 2019
  • July 2018
  • May 2018
  • February 2018
  • January 2018
  • September 2017
  • August 2017
  • July 2017
  • May 2017
  • April 2017
  • March 2017
  • February 2017
  • January 2017
  • December 2016
  • November 2016
  • October 2016
  • August 2016
  • July 2016
  • June 2016
  • May 2016
  • April 2016
  • March 2016
  • February 2016
  • January 2016
  • December 2015
  • November 2015
  • October 2015
  • September 2015
  • August 2015
  • July 2015
  • June 2015
  • May 2015
  • April 2015
  • March 2015
  • February 2015
  • January 2015
  • December 2014
  • November 2014
  • October 2014
  • September 2014
  • August 2014
  • July 2014
  • June 2014
  • May 2014
  • April 2014
  • March 2014
  • February 2014
  • January 2014
  • December 2013
  • November 2013
  • October 2013
  • September 2013
  • August 2013
  • July 2013
  • June 2013
  • May 2013
  • April 2013
  • March 2013
  • February 2013
  • January 2013
  • December 2012
  • November 2012
  • October 2012
  • September 2012
  • August 2012
  • July 2012
  • June 2012
  • May 2012
  • April 2012
  • March 2012
  • February 2012
  • January 2012
  • December 2011
  • November 2011

Wexboy Categories

  • Uncategorized

Blogroll

  • Above Average Odds Investing
  • Alpha Vulture
  • CantEatValue
  • Cheapskate Investor
  • csinvesting
  • Deep Value Investments
  • Element Value Investor
  • Expecting Value
  • Harriman Intelligence
  • Insider Monkey
  • Interactive Investor Blog
  • Investor Soiree
  • Long Term Value Blog
  • Mallet's Conspiracy
  • Mark Carter
  • Oddball Stocks
  • Philip O'Sullivan's Market Musings
  • Ragnar is a Pirate
  • Reminiscences of a Stockblogger
  • ShareProphets
  • Simple Value Investing
  • The UK Stock Market Almanac
  • Tom Winnifrith
  • UK Value Investor
  • Value Investing France
  • Value Investing Journey
  • Value Uncovered
  • valueandopportunity
  • valuestockinquisition
  • ValueWalk
  • Valuhunteruk

Meta

  • Register
  • Log in
  • Entries feed
  • Comments feed
  • WordPress.com

Blog at WordPress.com.

Privacy & Cookies: This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this website, you agree to their use.
To find out more, including how to control cookies, see here: Cookie Policy
  • Follow Following
    • Wexboy
    • Join 2,326 other followers
    • Already have a WordPress.com account? Log in now.
    • Wexboy
    • Customize
    • Follow Following
    • Sign up
    • Log in
    • Report this content
    • View site in Reader
    • Manage subscriptions
    • Collapse this bar