A Letter to the CEO (& Board) of European Islamic Investment Bank

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Ali Al Shihabi, AUM, EIIB, European Islamic Investment Bank, Guy Thomas, HBG Holdings, HBG Management Partners, Rasmala Holdings Limited, shareholder activism, tender offer, Zak Hydari, Zulfi Caar Hydari

Here’s a copy of a letter I’ve forwarded to EIIB’s CEO & board:

‘January 26, 2014

FAO:       Zulfi Caar Hydari, CEO

CC:         H.E. Abdallah Yahya Al-Mouallimi, Chairman

                 Mohammed Abdul Aziz Ibrahim Al Sarhan, Sr. Ind. Director

                 John Robertson Wright, Non-Exec. Director

                 Michael Willingham-Toxvaerd, Non-Exec. Director

                 Martin Gilbert Barrow, CBE, Non-Exec. Director

European Islamic Investment Bank plc (EIIB:LN)

Milton Gate

60 Chiswell Street

London EC1Y 4SA

United Kingdom

Dear Zak,

I’m writing this letter with the full support & active input of Guy Thomas (CIO, Hazell Carr Edwards FURB) and Ali Al Shihabi (founder & former Chairman of Rasmala Holdings Limited (‘Rasmala’)). You’ve obviously spoken & emailed with each of us, jointly or separately, on numerous occasions. We currently own an aggregate stake of between 4% and 5% in EIIB. In the last annual report, you stated ‘in 2013 we will begin to focus attention on translating our success into improved share price performance’. We’re disappointed by the subsequent lack of progress, and disturbed by a number of recent developments. To summarize:

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TGISVP – Hot or Not Snapshot

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intrinsic value, Irish shares, Irish Stock Exchange, Irish value investing, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project

Thanks readers, the comments (here & elsewhere) and emails are piling up – keep ’em coming. Certainly seems like people would like to see another year of The Great Irish Share Valuation Project! It’s tempting – the Irish market’s definitely been good to me in the past two years (despite my regular warnings about home bias). Um, except for those poor little junior resource stocks, of course! Fortunately, I’ve studiously ignored them as potential portfolio picks – well, except for my dog food stock, Petroneft Resources (PTR:LN). Jesus, after the walloping most of these stocks have received over the past couple of years (despite QE!), could they now be…ulp, cheap?!

Now now, let’s not get too excited there! That wasn’t a teaser question – I don’t actually know the bloody answer, at this point. Well, maybe I do…sad to say with some of those companies, but the notion they’ll ever prove a good investment is about as likely as US Oil & Gas (USOP:G4) ever producing a commercial drop of Perrier oil. But maybe there’s now a diamond or two to be found in the rough – imagine I find ’em & write ’em up, jeez think of all the new readers I’d attract. Golly, I’d be the bloody one-eyed king in the land of the muppets! Aaah, but then I’d probably have to give up the sarcasm…I mean, if muppets can’t smell bullshit, they surely won’t detect wit.

And if I do go ahead with TGISVP, it will definitely be a project for February onwards – I expect to be kept busy for the next couple of weeks (hopefully leading to an interesting post, or two). On the other hand, with two years of posts under my belt now, I’d hope to progress a little faster analyzing the current universe of Irish stocks. Actually, I note my analyses were more quantitative last year (vs. 2012) – I suspect that trend would become even more pronounced with a TGISVP 2014. Which makes sense:  I certainly don’t consider myself a quantitative value investor, but if the numbers don’t stack up there’s little chance of me going gaga over a company – no matter how good its business model, or its upside potential.

Anyway, it was never my intention to produce a buy/sell guide to Irish stocks. In the end, I’m happy if readers: i) are motivated to research a few interesting stocks for themselves (or to bail out of a total no-hoper stock, or two), and ii) learn something useful from the variety of valuation perspectives & techniques I employ.

TGISVP – 2013 Portfolio Performance

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Alpha Portfolio, Beta Portfolio, Great Western Mining Corp, Independent News & Media, Irish shares, Irish value investing, ISEQ, Karelian Diamond Resources, Papua Mining, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, Prime Active Capital, Smart Alpha Portfolio, Smart Beta Portfolio, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, US Oil & Gas

OK, a second year of The Great Irish Share Valuation Project is now complete – for reference, here’s my mid-year review, now it’s time for the real post-mortem!  Let’s take care of a little housekeeping first:

– Between Jan & May last year, I published individual reviews/valuations for 73 different Irish companies, and kept a file recording each share price (at time of evaluation) & price target to properly assess performance.

– Post mid-year, in Aug-Sep 2013, I published (& recorded) some additional reviews/valuations for 3 new Irish IPOs:  Green REIT (GRN:ID), Keywords Studios (KWS:LN), and Ardmore Shipping (ASC:US).

– Since mid-year, I’ve made no other changes to my TGISVP file, except: i) Donegal Creameries (DCP:ID) changed its name to Donegal Investment Group (DCP:ID), while United Drug (UDG:LN) became UDG Healthcare (UDG:LN), ii) Kedco (KED:LN) changed its name to REACT Energy (REAC:LN), and also consolidated its shares on a 1-for-50 basis, iii) Grafton Group (GFTU:LN) migrated to a London-only listing, iv) Elan Corp (ELN:US) was acquired by Perrigo Co (PRGO:US), and finally v) TVC Holdings (TVCH:ID) paid its shareholders a EUR 0.495 special dividend.

– Since the (major) review/valuation phase was spread over 4 1/2 mths, my benchmark (the ISEQ) needs to be adjusted accordingly. I’m going to reference the mid-point (in terms of companies valued) of this phase – i.e. Feb-25th – as the most appropriate start date for the index.

2013 – A Game of Two Halves

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AIM stocks, Alternative Asset Opportunities, Asta Funding, benchmarking, correlation, fear and greed, hedge funds, home bias investing, KWG Kommunale Wohnen, Petroneft Resources, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, Richland Resources, Saga Furs, Tetragon Financial Group, Titanium Asset Management, US Oil & Gas

Yup, it’s that time of year again… [For reference, here’s my mid-year 2013 performance report, plus my FY-2012 report]. Right off the bat, I have to admit assessing annual performance isn’t my most favourite of activities (as I’ll explain). It also reminds me how easily our (personal) fear & greed equation can magically transform itself as we finish an old year & head into a new one. While most traders tend to start a new year cautiously, investors often set out brimming with over-confidence – which can prove pretty hazardous…

The UK’s AIM market, for example, has enjoyed significantly positive returns in 14 of its last 18 Januaries. This annual love-fest is even more remarkable when you realize the AIM index has declined 17% since its 1995 inception. [Growth and value investors, take note!] My favourite muppets provide a more ludicrous example: Shareholders of US Oil & Gas (USOP:G4) (I’m presuming no new suckers are buying at this point) hailed the new year by immediately buying/running up the price 60% from its yr-end close! Sure, hope springs eternal…but with most USOP investors having lost 95%+ of their investment to date, this kind of new year exuberance is wildly irrational.

Thinking about & tracking your stocks (& portfolio) on some kind of calendar basis is yet another fixated version of tracking individual stock gains/losses. And that’s how fear & greed grabs hold & encourages you to play the ‘if…‘ game. I’ve already recommended you Forget Your Purchase Price – now I recommend forgetting your Year-to-Date Gains. Free yourself of those deadly anchors, and you’ll be forced instead to look afresh at your holdings every single day. For each stock, that’s an exercise in assessing upside potential (i.e. current share price vs. your latest estimate of intrinsic value), and then weighing that reward against the level & range of risk(s) involved. Which boils down to one simple question for each of your portfolio holdings:  Should I buy, sell or hold this stock today? And your cumulative or calendar gains/losses on a stock are irrelevant to that question – no matter how small, large or goddamn painful they might be…