So, Just Average Is Best…

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averaging, fear and greed, investment checklists, investment process, investment theme, noise, risk vs. reward, stock picking, technical analysis, worship the spreadsheet

It’s New Year’s Eve…and in the end, it’s been a pretty tough & frustrating year for many investors out there. [‘Less you’re Irish & stuck close to home – just look at this friggin’ chart!] And while the holiday season’s all about celebrating the year gone by & ahead, it can be tough (as the booze kicks in) not to get a little disheartened and experience some real doubt about your portfolio & your stock-picking prowess.

And the financial media’s no help – the talking heads & market strategists chatter about the biggest winners of the past year, and opine on the stocks & trends to focus on in 2016. How on earth are they be so confident & so prescient? It’s simple…’cos that’s how they get paid & promoted! Just like CEOs, just like politicians, just like your boss, the big bucks are paid almost inevitably to the big swinging dick. Not the fidgety little guy in the corner, analysing stacks of data & second-guessing himself to death. Truth is, they don’t need to be right, that’s irrelevant. Because they’re looking to attract attention, earn fees, increase AUM, etc…and ultimately, confidence sells.

Trouble is, you need to be right.

But you don’t feel confident, like they do. And so the dance continues… They go on TV, and dish out all the confident narrative & commentary you crave. Except the only obvious market truism (‘stocks go up, over time…’) isn’t a good soundbite. Instead, they analyse monthly data points. And speculate about a possible Asian pandemic. And worry over an escalating Middle East war. And hyperventilate about a junk bond-induced economic melt-down. Or a terrorist attack, or maybe even an assassination, if they get lucky. And so on, ad infinitum.

But almost inevitably, it’s all just noise…

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How About Some Market Perspective..?

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bear market, business media, compounders, de-leveraging, fear and greed, growth investing, hindsight, investment checklists, over-confidence, value investing

Go on, admit it…at this very moment, you’re glancing at a business anchor who’s busy losing their mind on your telly. Yes, left, right & centre – lots of markets are correcting. Or should I say collapsing, tanking, plummeting, nose-diving, slumping, free-falling, or simply never ever recovering ever..! And if you can look past the hyperbole, some are unfortunately entering actual bear market territory. Kinda gets the blood pumping, eh? You really should switch off the TV, and just go meditate (or run a marathon) instead! It definitely could save you a few quid & a few stupid decisions. But we’re all too human – and now we’re addicted to this 24/7 diet of escalated corporate & market drama, so it’s become easier than ever for the media to stoke fear (and greed) in our hearts.

Traditionally, a 10% market reversal was defined as a correction, while a bear market was at least a 20% decline. But now the business media’s upped the ante, unilaterally adopting something like 3% & 10% as the new thresholds (respectively). [And I suspect politicians & central banks aren’t far behind]. Look at them now – glued to their desks, fuelled on Red Bull, and kitted out with adult diapers (think about it…live TV, energy drinks & too much excitement?!), they can barely contain their glee at this renewed market turmoil. Which is, of course, sheer madness…

But here we are, lapping it up – feeling so very serious about the market yet again. Because a reversal invariably hits us out of the blue, with the reasons why only trailing after, in its wake… [How many talking heads highlighted a global growth slow-down two months ago?! But now it’s the glib explanation you’re hearing on every business channel]. I mean, we began September with so much promise?! Personally (& somewhat counter-intuitively), I was fairly bullish myself – and I still think I read the charts correctly as being quite promising (though I definitely wasn’t keen on a 2,000+ S&P). Unfortunately, the price action & the charts never quite followed through, and now September & October are living up to their more usual grim reputation.

So, what am I going to tell you here..?

Fear & Greed (II)

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charting, diversification, Expected Value, falling knives, fear and greed, intrinsic value, investment checklists, momentum, portfolio allocation, position limits, stop losses, sunk costs, technical analysis, trading, value investing, value-trap

Continued from here.

I labelled as tricks some of the techniques I’m writing about here – which might have put off some readers. But surely you’ll try anything that might help combat the impact of fear & greed in your investing? Reconsidering, I’d now argue the five techniques I’ve already documented are actually essential tool-kit for any serious investor. Have another look, and I hope you’ll agree – to put it another way, it would be hard to argue your investing would actually improve if you omitted any of the following:

Learn To Love The Black Box:  Document all your investments, and analyze & learn from your mistakes.

Checklist It:  Develop checklist(s) for every stage of your investment process.

Valuation Orgy:  Value your investments using as many different valuation techniques & metrics as possible.

Watch What They Do, Not What They Say:  Focus on facts, figures & performance, not just the ‘story’.

Well, Are You The Right Size?:  Set pre-defined position limits within your portfolio.

However, a majority of my remaining techniques do perhaps deserve to be called tricks. Which means they may, or may not, suit your investing style & personality. Trouble is, how will you ever know if they’d work for you, unless you give ’em a whirl..?! Or figure out how they’re best adapted to your particular circumstances? Right, let’s soldier on:

vi) Learn Some Bloody Voodoo

Fear & Greed (I)

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biofeedback, black box, fear and greed, home bias investing, investment checklists, literature, Nudge, portfolio allocation, The Checklist Manifesto, trading, value investing, value-trap

Great traders don’t necessarily have to be that smart, but mastery of their emotions – specifically, fear & greed – is absolutely essential. The same is equally true of great investors, except it just happens in slow(er) motion… But most people end up choosing investing over trading. Which is pretty fortunate – the trading gods delight in seeing meticulous logic & analysis abruptly savaged by fear & greed.

Many would-be traders never recognize this, and fail accordingly. Others grasp it, but remain trapped in a never-ending struggle. Only the brave few ever learn to fully master these emotions. Investing, on the other hand, seduces you with the luxury of time & positive long-term equity market trends. Which often makes it far more difficult to recognize the corrosive impact of fear & greed on your portfolio returns. The fact many of us shy away from any kind of critical self-examination doesn’t help either. But there are two solutions available to us:

The first is reading. In my last post, I argued for an important alternative to most investors’ non-fiction diet – literature, and lots of it. The great novels, plays & poetry are windows into the hearts & minds of other people – and in turn, yourself. Learning to actually recognize emotions like fear & greed in yourself, and their potentially disastrous impact on your investing, is the first & likely most difficult part of the battle you face.

Now, I didn’t cover the second solution – how to actually conquer those emotions. Because unfortunately, when it comes to that challenge, we are all truly alone…