2021…Wow, Another Crazy (Good) Year!

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Alphabet, annual review, balance sheet, bubble thesis, crypto, Donegal Investment Group, inflation, KR1, KR1 plc, multi-bagger, owner-operators, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, Record plc, Saga Furs, Tetragon Financial Group, VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund

At this point, maybe you’re done with 2021 – right?!

But face it, we gotta look back to figure out how we arrived…in this mess today! And hopefully recall & reinforce any lessons learned. ‘Cos sure, there’s plenty of good & bad luck involved, but outcomes for both nations & investors are ultimately a result of our (cumulative) decisions & actions, often stretching back years. And last year, as the pandemic dragged on, our drinking problem got a wee bit out of control & we enjoyed that punchbowl just a little too long. And now it feels like the inevitable hangover’s finally starting to kick in.

Well, except for those who started early…God love ’em, how many punters have been trapped in a savage bear market for almost a year now?!

But for the rest of us, last year’s market was the pandemic silver lining. As always, the US led the way with a 26.9% gain in the S&P 500. [The Nasdaq still clocked up a magnificent 21.4% gain, despite some sectors being deep in bear market territory]. Europe was nearly as magnificent, with the Bloomberg Euro 500 clocking a 19.7% gain. And Ireland & the UK brought up the rear, but still delivered higher than average returns, with a 14.5% gain for the ISEQ & a 14.3% gain for the FTSE 100. [On both sides of the Atlantic, the FTSE 250 & the Russell 2000 enjoyed similar 14% gains, whereas a risk-off/stonk bear market reduced the AIM All-Share to a mere 5.2% gain]. Notably, despite H2 price reversals & increasing volatility, all major indices – with the exception of the ISEQ – climbed steadily & closed out the year near annual/all-time highs.

My FY-2021 Benchmark Return remains* a simple average of the four main indices which best represent my portfolio…overall, they produced a benchmark 18.8% gain:

H1-2021 Wexboy Portfolio Performance…Yeah, It’s a Biggie!

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Alphabet, annual review, bubble thesis, crypto, financial repression, inflation, KR1, KR1 plc, multi-bagger, pandemic, portfolio performance, Record plc, Saga Furs, VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund

Time to celebrate – we made it through the #pandemic!

Well, almost…

Vaccine roll-outs continue, some fast some slow, but crossing the actual finish line remains maddeningly elusive here. Unfortunately, as so often proves the case, the loudest & craziest perspectives tend to control the narrative. On one side, we have the #antivaxx nutters & their ever-expanding conspiracy theory complex to debate – you may as well wrestle a pig (you both get dirty & the pig likes it!), so the sooner we abandon them to herd immunity & their Darwinian fate the better. And on the other side, we’ve got the #Delta nutters who apparently don’t believe in vaccines either – like them, they’d prefer we all stay masked up & locked down forever, despite being vaccinated. [Seriously, imagine being told two years ago most people would be walking ’round in masks in 2021…after being vaccinated!?] And since the latter are still imposing their will on all of us – to a greater or lesser degree – arguably, they win the crazy selfish stakes. As Upton Sinclair might have said:

‘It is difficult to get a man to understand vaccine efficacy, when his cushy new working-from-home white-collar career depends on his not understanding it.’

But hey, touch wood, we’re still almost home free! And while it may be hard to believe right now, history’s proven it time & again…we’re gonna move on just as quickly, with little reason to presume this specific pandemic leaves any radical permanent change in its wake. But clearly, as I’ve argued from the start, it has & will continue to accelerate certain existing trends – both positive & negative – including America’s heroic fiscal & monetary stimulus, and its disproportionate impact on the S&P 500. How many investors have forgotten (or never even noticed) its +16.3% gain last year was actually a total outlier – my 2020 index benchmark, for example, was still flat regardless:

2021 has been far more democratic though, with most indices chalking up at least a good year’s worth of gains (albeit led by the S&P, as always!) in H1 – no real surprise, as investors applaud successful vaccine roll-out programmes & the still breaking tsunami of #YOLO re-opening spending. [And maybe even a New Roaring Twenties to come?!] As usual, my H1-2021 Benchmark Return (a +11.7% gain) is a simple average of the four main indices which best represent my portfolio:

H1-2020 Wexboy Portfolio Performance

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Alphabet, Applegreen, Asia, bubble thesis, coronavirus, COVID, crypto, financial strength, floating world, KR1 plc, owner-operators, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, property, QEInfinity, Saga Furs

So yeah…quite the bloody year, eh?!

I hope you & yours have kept safe & well during this #COVIDcrisis – even if you’re not exactly sheltering-in-place anymore, I presume you’re still a conscientious mask-wearer (as needed) in public? All else being equal, it’s disappointing the weather (apparently) isn’t a sure-fire virus-killer – remember when we all assumed, at worst, the summer would offer a welcome & effective respite? You know, meeting people, I used to joke investing was simply the ‘job’ I invented to keep me off the mean streets…I never imagined it would literally turn out like this!?

Anyway, let’s survey the carnage…

As usual, my H1-2020 Benchmark Return is a simple average of the four main indices which best represent the majority of my portfolio:

A (13.2)% benchmark loss is grim…though apologies to my puzzled American readers, who are wondering what carnage? [Apparently 100% of US investors now practice 0% global diversification!?]. If you didn’t know better – i.e. had avoided the media’s water-boarding over the last six months – you’d surely think a (4.0)% loss in the S&P was nothing more than some random market oscillation. Nothing to see here…

But in reality, lots of (US) investors now lean into technology stocks…and the Nasdaq didn’t disappoint, delivering a spectacular COVID-driven +12.1% gain! [C’mon, I tweeted ‘Nasdaq 10,000’ enough in the last year!] Of course, there’s a flip-side, with travel & hospitality being the most obvious sectors to experience devastating (& sustained) share price declines. We see a far more realistic ex-technology US performance in the Russell 2000, which recorded a (13.6)% loss in H1.

H1-2019 Wexboy Portfolio Performance

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#GenerationWar, #WallofWorry, Alphabet, benchmarking, bubbles, crypto, Donegal Investment Group, floating world, KR1 plc, negative yields, portfolio performance, quantitative easing, Saga Furs

And once more…into battle!

Before the month is out, it’s time I look back & share a H1 portfolio update. Of course, in the wake of last year’s Q4 carnage, it wasn’t all that surprising to see markets chalking up a near-perfect YTD performance across the board. Equally unsurprising was the US market’s continued leadership…which seems like an inevitability these days, to the chagrin of long-suffering European & value investors. [Um, aren’t they synonymous?!] So here’s the scoreboard – as usual, my H1-2019 Benchmark Return is a simple average of the four main indices which represent the majority of my portfolio:

On average, a 13.4% benchmark gain…led by the S&P with a 17.3% gain (bested by the Nasdaq, which boasted a 20.7% gain). More surprising was the robust performance of the FTSE 100…despite a tsunami of Brexit nonsense, it still managed to deliver a 10.4% gain. [Not an index-related fluke – the more domestic FTSE 250 & the AIM All-Share (despite a glut of profit warnings) clocked up (on average) similar gains of 11.2% & 7.1%, respectively]. As for the ISEQ & Bloomberg Euro 500, they did themselves proud too, recording respective gains of 12.3% & 13.6%.

Overall, this is a reversal of the 13.5% benchmark loss I reported last year. Which, noting the S&P’s consistent out-performance, is an unwelcome reminder European markets are still actually lower/no better off than end-2017 levels! And really, I’m just cherry-picking here – my European benchmarks have pretty much gone nowhere for the last four years. And again, that’s another flattering perspective…believe it or not, Euro indices have mostly traded sideways for close to two decades now! [Read ’em & weep: FTSE 100, ISEQ, STOXX Europe 600]*. Sure, you still earned a dividend yield…but this savages the comforting notion that equities will always make you decent money/are the superior asset class in the medium & long-term. Though maybe, just maybe, there’s a silver lining to that bag you’re holding:

Wexboy Portfolio Prospects – Part I

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growth investing, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, Rasmala, Saga Furs, stock picks, stock tips, Tetragon Financial Group, value investing, VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund, Zamano

With the dust hopefully having settled here, it finally seemed like the right time to give this post one last polish & get it out! Maybe now, readers are  in the mood again to actually contemplate a potential new buy or two? As for me, almost inevitably, my top holdings tend to be my favourite buys…

Okay, maybe that’s not strictly true – each & every day, I’m still distracted by siren stocks I pine to own! But buying a new stock is equally about selling an existing holding*, one you (should) already know far more intimately. [*Unless you’re hoarding piles of cash…which would be pretty silly, right?!] And that’s an important & valuable hurdle for any investor. Because anything that might help reduce portfolio turnover is invariably a good thing! Which is no damn excuse for hanging on to losers…but it is a compelling incentive for really understanding the stocks/businesses you currently own. In particular, because learning how not to sell potential multi-bagger growth stocks is ultimately the biggest challenge most (experienced) investors will have to face, as I lamented in my last post.

So let’s crack on: For each of my disclosed holdings, I’ll comment briefly on its 2017 performance, then focus on its current prospects & valuation. NB: All share prices & market caps are cob Feb-27th, but individual stock allocations are listed as of year-end 2017 (essential to my 2018 portfolio performance tracking). Of course, any questions/comments you may have about these holdings are always welcome here (& by email):

i) Zamano (ZMNO:ID) (or ZMNO:LN) (1.8% of year-end portfolio):

Share Price:   EUR 0.04

Market Cap:   EUR 4.0 Million

2017 Portfolio Gain:   (25)%

Yeah, unfortunately they can’t all be potential multi-bagger growth stocks…

Top Trumps For 2017…

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Donegal Investment Group, favourite stock, Fortress Investment Group, Newmark Security, portfolio allocation, Rasmala, Saga Furs, stock picks, stock tips, Tetragon Financial Group, Trump, VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund, Zamano

So, bet you thought this was about Trump…and/or his Inauguration?

Nope, sorry…just my little bit of fake news! I meant something much better – who remembers this childhood classic: Top Trumps! To know the game is to love it…though if you don’t, it probably seems impossibly quaint in today’s digital world. I still remember the De Tomasa Pantera was the best card by far in my Supercars deck – what are the chances you’ll remember a detail like that about your latest app in the years/decades ahead?! Anyway, it’s still that time of year…and yeah, I’ve cheated a little. Pretty much everybody’s finished with their Top Tips & Picks for the New Year, so now I’ll swoop in & hog your undivided attention! Well, at least ’til your next tweet…

Regular readers will know what to expect from my Top Trumps for 2017 – yep, I’m sticking with my disclosed holdings. I mean, what could be better?! [Well, except some undisclosed holdings..?! No more teasing, I swear: I’m just about finished with the (very) slow accumulation of positions in half a dozen new stocks, soon I’ll line ’em up & start work on some proper investment write-ups]. Though I should remind you, in my last post I deliberately focused on the negative aspects of my 2016 Losers…hopefully, I offer a more balanced perspective here. Or at the v least, highlight how ridiculously cheap some of these stocks have gotten!? So, let’s crack on:

[NB: i) With the near-liquidation of Alternative Asset Opportunities (TLI:LN) this month, it’s no longer a disclosed holding, ii) I highlight my current portfolio allocation (as of CoB Jan-26th) for each holding, but will use my year-end allocations (which are similar) for 2017 performance reporting purposes, and iii) I include relevant corporate/IR websites & Bloomberg tickers, but avoid posting previous write-ups, in an effort to present each holding afresh – but feel free to reference last year’s portfolio commentaries (here & here), plus it’s easy to search/find original investment write-up(s) on the blog also.]

i) Newmark Security (NWT:LN) (2.4% of current portfolio):

Share Price:   GBP 1.45p

Market Cap:   GBP 6.8 Million

A special situation…which actually obscures an underlying growth story. While these trading updates (here & here) have crucified the share price, Newmark’s electronic division still looks like the real problem here. For almost a decade now, revenue’s unchanged, while divisional margins declined relentlessly – from 20-23%, to a £(0.5) million loss today. Poor return on capital was bad enough, but losses kill any argument for keeping the division. And after 4 years as CEO, shareholders presumably have little confidence Marie-Claire Dwek can still deliver a turnaround – and her hands are now full dealing with the larger asset protection division. Noting Chairman Maurice Dwek always ran a tight ship here, the situation appears untenable – something’s gotta give…

H1-2016 Wexboy Portfolio Performance

Tags

Alternative Asset Opportunities, Argo Group, benchmarking, Brexit, Donegal Investment Group, Fortress Investment Group, JPMorgan Russian Securities, KWG Kommunale Wohnen, Newmark Security, portfolio performance, Rasmala, Saga Furs, Tetragon Financial Group, value investing, VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund, Zamano

Benchmark Performance:

Yeah, it’s that time of year again…and hopefully a chance to step back from some of this recent Brexit insanity. Let’s jump right in – here’s the H1-2016 performance of my usual benchmark indices:

Of course, what jumps out immediately is the UK. Brexit schmexit…the FTSE’s performance is actually bang in line with long-term averages! Which reflects its predominantly international exposure, but the much-cited FTSE 250 certainly wasn’t much of a disaster at (6.6)%, while the AIM All-Share managed to limit its decline to (4.2)%. [Sterling took the real walloping, trading down 10-12% vs. the dollar & euro]. Unfortunately, this is a sad reminder the real risk of home bias for investors may not be portfolio return. It’s the fact they wake up to a shrinking portfolio…and suddenly realise their currency’s dumped, their housing market’s locked up (& their house value’s probably dumped too), not to mention their employment & economic prospects may also have dimmed substantially. [At least Brexiteers won’t notice the currency impact, since they seem to think only in terms of Mighty Blighty & The Pahhhnd In Your Pocket]. Only a fool would question (or ignore) the benefits of greater/global diversification in the face of such potentially existential risks – particularly as there’s no obvious long-term cost(s) to such a strategy.

At first glance, Europe has borne more of the Brexit brunt, with the Bloomberg Euro 500 significantly trailing the UK indices – down over 10% (which must delight the Brexiteers!). However, it’s worth noting escalating NPL/capital issues in the Italian banking system (& a mounting EU-Italy war of words) have been overlooked by the media recently (hat tip to The Economist though)…I suspect this is responsible for a significant portion of the index decline. Despite efforts to date, this crisis will require an expensive & long-drawn out resolution, and will probably continue to exert a significant drag on sentiment. Fortunately, it shouldn’t pose any kind of existential threat to the European banking system ultimately, at least for stronger banks & countries…Draghi & the ECB will presumably continue to do ‘whatever it takes’. But the ongoing compression in European banking valuations is puzzling – who the hell wants to bet & sweat over sub-0.5 P/B banks, when the cream of the crop remains on sale at 1.0 times book (or less)?! [And the US banking situation isn’t much different].

Perhaps the real Brexit victim here is Ireland, with the ISEQ suffering a 17% decline. Then again, with the market clocking an impressive multi-year string of gains (& a late-2015 double top), a correction was overdue…regardless of Brexit. [Hmph, so why didn’t I dump my Irish shares?!] Of course, now we have to figure out the medium/long-term consequences for the Irish economy & market – a challenge which I think nobody, no matter how authoritative, is qualified to tackle at this point. But anyway, let me throw my (initial) ten cents into the ring:

Wexboy – Top 14 Tips for 2016!

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Alternative Asset Opportunities, Argo Group, Donegal Investment Group, favourite stock, Fortress Investment Group, KWG Kommunale Wohnen, luxury goods, Newmark Security, portfolio allocation, Saga Furs, smartphone revolution, stock tips, Tetragon Financial Group, VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund, Zamano

This ain’t no party, this ain’t no disco, this ain’t no fooling around…

Yeah, it’s January, the most miserable time of the year. And already half of us regret we made no New Year’s resolutions…while the other half regrets they did. The market’s no help either, with many investors ending a frustrating 2015 in the red, and greeted in 2016 by another global dump. [Let’s discard the odd notion the Chinese market’s global impact is simply due to its hyper-volatility. It’s not…the market’s only the tip of the spear for the entire Chinese economy, which has obviously evolved into the key marginal driver now of the global economy. So for 2016, a great resolution is to pay far less attention to the US & far more attention to China!]. But still, there’s a whole bunch of new tips out there to inspire us… 🙂

Trouble is, I don’t necessarily have much faith in them, ‘less I know the tipster’s got his money where his mouth is. Which offers no guarantees, but it means I’ll tackle the 2016 tips season just like I did last year – inevitably, my top holdings are also my top tips! [And judging by my traffic, people definitely want tips first & performance later…so I bow to the vox populi, my FY-2015 performance post will have to wait a little longer!] And so, without further ado, here’s my Top Holdings as of Year-End 2015:

Hang on a minute, isn’t this s’posed to be a Top 14 Tips? You’re bloody well short-changing us here, mate!? Well, sort of, I’ll explain later… 😉 Now, let’s start pulling together a few different elements here… First, you might want to check out this July post, which includes my last (brief) updates on most of these stocks (& hopefully offers a taste of my upcoming performance post!):

‘Smokin’ the S&P…H1-2015 Wexboy Portfolio Performance!’

The Saga Continues…

Tags

auction house, China, emerging markets, fur trade, luxury goods, Russia, Saga Furs, SAGCV

‘Bout time I revisited Saga Furs (SAGCV:FH). Loyal readers will hopefully recall my original investment write-up, two years ago now:

‘Quite A Saga…’

And boy, that’s what it’s proved to be ever since… Wisely, I wrapped up my last post with a potential health warning for readers (& included a scary looking chart). At first, it seemed unnecessary, as Saga managed to rally 20%+ in the following two months (hitting almost EUR 50.00 a share, which was gratifying). I must admit, I certainly didn’t expect what came next…

Now, I should encourage you, please go back & read my original post – it provides useful background on the fur industry & Saga Furs, which I don’t plan on revisiting here. [And I’m ignoring an anti-fur movement that’s become increasingly irrelevant…but I should clearly highlight Saga isn’t a stock for everyone, though obviously it’s not a fur producer itself]. Let’s recap my positive investment thesis at the time:

• Triple Threat:  Saga Furs offers attractive exposure to three of my favourite things: Emerging Markets, Luxury Goods & Auction Houses.
• Supply:  European/N American fur production is highly regulated (& superior to Chinese fur), with supply constrained despite generally increasing prices.
• Demand:  High-growth/secular fur market trend in the past decade or so, driven by Western fashion/luxury revival & new emerging market demand.
• Resilience:  Despite a 39% post-crisis collapse in sales, Saga’s P&L stayed close to break-even. [Aided by inversely-correlated commission rates, which increase as sales decline]. Auction sales rebounded 78% the following year.
• Investment:  Significant percentage of Saga’s annual turnover is ploughed into expanding capacity, European/global fur lobbying, and the promotion of Saga Furs as a luxury brand.
• Market Share/Network Effect:  Now permanent agreement with American Legend & Fur Harvesters Auction to sell via Saga auction, thereby creating some of the largest fur auctions in the world & significantly improving Saga’s effective market share.
• Valuation:  Stock cheap in absolute terms, vs. long term earnings growth & an average adjusted operating FCF margin of 28.0%. Also cheap in relative terms, vs. auction house & luxury goods sectors.

Unfortunately, the perfect storm was ready to hit: Dec-2013 auction sales collapsed 76%, as prices & the number of pelts sold dropped precipitously. Despite the about-face, initially this seemed like a bit of a buyers’ strike really…brought on by a mild winter, sticker shock (after pelt prices doubled in 3 years), higher retail inventories, and signs of slowing Russian & Chinese growth. Looking back, we know better now. It did prove to be a temporary buyers’ strike (as I’ll highlight below), but clearly the December auction heralded a more serious & sustained market disruption – the Chinese crackdown on luxury gifts was just gathering momentum at the time, and Putin was on the verge of sending the Russian economy (& ruble) over a cliff by backing military intervention in Ukraine.

Wexboy Portfolio – FY-2014 Performance

Tags

Alternative Asset Opportunities, Argo Group, Bloomberg Euro 500, emerging markets, FTSE 100, FTSE AIM All-Share, ISEQ, NTR plc, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, S&P 500, Saga Furs, value investing, VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund, Zamano

Crikey, the days are flying by already, eh?! Here we are, January’s nearly over & a FY-2014 performance review would look a bit silly in February… So let’s bang this one out: So, how did the Wexboy Portfolio perform for FY-2014? [For reference, here’s my mid-year review]. First, let’s take a peek at my usual benchmark:

Maybe this is hindsight talking, but looking at these index returns, they (nearly all) make perfect sense to me now! But duh, isn’t that true most of the time!? That is, assuming you accept momentum generally trumps value in the market…

The Irish market enjoyed the highest return, as it continues to accelerate slowly but surely out of an unprecedented recession. Of course, the recession was inevitable, but was unfortunately compounded by the foolishness of the banks & then the government itself. However, the scale & trajectory of the burgeoning recovery (now & to come) is well-deserved. Ireland may have waved goodbye to currency flexibility, but it’s one of the very few countries that still proved willing & able to take the public & private pain of radical fiscal & competitiveness adjustment, and now it’s starting to pay off in spades… [Right now, Beardy Krugman must be wishing Ireland was wiped off the map!]

The US market wasn’t far behind, though for entirely different reasons. Being the epicentre of a global financial crisis proved an excellent strategy…ideally, you end up being rewarded as the first country to subsequently escape recession! But it seems blindingly obvious the US recovery (& accompanying market rally) wouldn’t exist without the GUBU fiscal & monetary debasement we’ve witnessed. Which presents a dilemma for investors: Do you abstain, on the basis it promises an even more catastrophic disaster to come (as we’ve regularly seen since the late ’90s, as a direct consequence of the Fed’s actions & inaction)? Or do you believe the Krugmanesque fairy tale of a free lunch – government stimulus & QE really can deliver sustainable economic recovery at no perceived cost? [Hmmm, maybe a dine & dash strategy does offer a free lunch…well, ’til you’re caught!] The answer, I suppose, is the usual one:

Don’t fight the Fed!