The Great Irish Share Valuation Project – Some New Arrivals

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Ardmore Shipping, ASC, Baltic Dry Index, Green REIT, GRN, IPO, Irish shares, Irish value investing, Keywords Studios, KWS, shipping sector, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, US Oil & Gas, video game sector

I finished the valuation phase of The Great Irish Share Valuation Project in May, but we’ve actually seen a grand total of three Irish companies IPO since then. Seriously, that’s a bit of a bloody record – one of them even listed on the ISE! I’ll be taking a closer look at each company in this post, and including them in TGISVP for the rest of the year.

[btw I can’t help but remember it was about this time last year I first sat down, took a look at US Oil & Gas (USOP:G4), and promptly fell off my chair. It was a bit like meeting Paul Calf for the first time – I laughed, I cried, I was horrified… I ended up predicting an ultimate TGISVP price target of 3.5p (a 99% price decline). Not surprisingly, this was greeted with outrage  – with multiple muppets going out of their way to explain, in great detail, why I didn’t have a f***ing clue! Oh, how right they were, and how wrong I was – USOP’s now trading at 32p, a share price decline of only 95%..! Clearly an apology is warranted – perhaps I should suck up my pride & make it?! ;-)]

Well, maybe I can’t promise you anything as exciting as USOP, but let’s see if we have any bargains or disasters on our hands:

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Red or Green REIT?!

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blind pool, commercial property, Franklin Templeton, Green Property, Green Property Ventures, Green REIT, GRN, IPO, Ireland, Irish property, Irish shares, Irish value investing, NAMA, NAV premium, Pat Gunne, Paulson & Co, Pimco, Stephen Vernon, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project

Green REIT (GRN:ID) is Ireland’s first real estate investment trust. And the first ISE main market listing in over 5 years (a shock for the somnolent exchange staff, I’m sure). In fact, the IPO was so unprecedented, even the Minister for Finance turned up – here’s his speech! Not to mention the press, who fell on the story like a pack of dogs. But really, what do you expect? If there’s one thing that unites people, it’s a fervent desire for property to increase in value. Which is particularly true of Ireland, especially now – we blew the bubble we had, and Lord we so desperately want it back…

Yes, bored real estate agents want to treat buyers like scum & regain the respect they deserve. Mortgage holders just want to return to break-even, so they can finally relax & enjoy those gigantic monthly mortgage payments for the next 20 years. Old tyme reporters are sick of being forced to write real (i.e. non-property & interior design) stories, while their ad departments are tired of calling ’round begging for business. The banks dread visiting their own bank manager (NAMA & the Dept. of Finance) – while acting the gombeen with recalcitrant borrowers is somewhat problematic when they were reduced to beggary themselves not so long ago. As for the politicians, they just want to close their eyes & wake up when everything’s alright again…and then take all the credit! Finally, we have the poor old taxpayer…he just dreams of getting back to the good old days.

Because property solves all problems – doesn’t it?!

But I have to confess, I’m more than a little fascinated by the Green REIT IPO. Is it me, or did we just hit an inflection point? Could this be a new zeitgeist we’re witnessing? Well, if the collective national psyche could will it, Ireland’s certainly right about bloody due now… Oh boy, that’s a huge subject to tackle – for the moment, why don’t we take a closer look at:

Stockopedia – Another Good School Report!

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Begbies Traynor, correlation, Facebook, gymkhana, How to Make Money in Value Stocks, IPO, JJB Sports, junior resource stocks, message boards, stock screener, Stockopedia, value investing

I’m pleased to announce you (and some new readers, hopefully) will now be seeing some Wexboy posts syndicated over on Stockopedia! Of course, you’re the very first to find out. Well, after my dear old parents, that is… C’mon, it’s been sooooo long since I could bring home a rosette (look left/scroll down) 🙂 What’s this digital crap anyway, I want the real thing! To add to my dusty gymkhana rosette collection...

Here’s the first syndicated post: Correlation…Schmorrelation!

Uhoh, I forgot there might be comments popping up there… And the first comment’s a goody! Yes, agreed, Begbies Traynor (BEG:LN) management certainly seems pretty clueless – judging from the share price & my own reading to date. But they’ve been cutting a lot of dead wood recently (good restructuring practice, eh? ;-)), so it’s worth a deeper dig to figure out how they’re shaping up now. But I have other UK candidates (in the ‘distressed‘ business) to look over, which I suspect will offer far better operational/financial histories.

Avangardco Eggcelerating!

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agri-business, Angry Birds, Avangardco, Chuckie Egg, eggs, IPO, Oleg Bakhmatyuk, platformers, trading update, Ukraine, Ukrlandfarming, US ADR program

Please see my recent Avangardco (AVGR:LN) post here. Since then, it’s been interesting to see Bakhmatyuk engaging more actively with the media, for example here and here. Definitely seems to be part of a gradual ramp-up to an IPO for Ukrlandfarming (Ukr) – looks like further news may even come as early as end-May. We still don’t have any real hard info, though, but I’m encouraged by positive noises to date from the company & Bakhmatyuk, and by his explicit pairing of Avangardco & Ukr (eggs & grain) in recent comments/interviews.

However, it’s obvious a significant number of shareholders (potential, or actual) will continue to view this as a stock negative until there’s a specific transaction & terms on the table to evaluate. Ironically, a counterweight to this might well be a potential Ukr transaction itself! The buzz & analyst/media blitz ahead of an IPO would be sure to generate plenty of good publicity/attention for Avangardco also. As I’ve mentioned before, fair/preferential treatment of Avangardco shareholders in a potential Ukr transaction is essential, and would provide valuable support to Bakhmatyuk in pursuit of his longer-term ambitions. Continued maintenance of a foreign listing‘s essential also (in London, obviously, but adding a US ADR program might be attractive eventually).