Current Portfolio Snapshot & Allocation

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agri-business, averaging, cash, correlation, distressed, diversification, emerging markets, Event Driven, frontier markets, Ireland, luxury goods, mobile, portfolio allocation, property, UK, US, volatility

OK, the Olympics are over – time to focus, focus!

And these pleasant late summer markets might soon grow stormy…

So it’s as good a time as any to offer up a current snapshot of my top holdings & portfolio allocation. Let’s begin with my Top Nine holdings, which follows on from my recent H1-2016 Performance post. [In this post/tables, since I made no incremental H1 buys/sells, the average stake for each holding actually equated to my year-end 2015 holdings…so eight months later, an update’s clearly overdue!]:

[Current:  As of CoB 24-Aug-2016]

For your reference, in my last post, I included a paragraph (or two) of updated commentary for each individual holding. I also completed a similar exercise in my Top Tips post back in January. And just for completeness here, I’ll again provide corporate website & Bloomberg links, links to relevant posts/write-ups (remember, good investment theses tend to evolve slowly), plus the closing share price & market cap for each stock:

i) Zamano (ZMNO:ID, or ZMNO:LN) (9.3% Portfolio Holding):

‘Zamano…So, What Now?!’      (NB: First link = most recent post/write-up)

‘Zoom, Zoom…Zamano!’

Share Price:   EUR 0.113

Market Cap:   EUR 11.2 Million

Portfolio Allocation (XIV – Emerging & Frontier Markets)

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agri-business, correlation, corruption, developed markets, Donegal Creameries, emerging markets, Europe, financial crisis, frontier markets, German property, Japan, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, QE, US, volatility

Continued from here. Wow, it’s been a leisurely journey – spanning a full year – is this really my last post of the series?! Hmmm, we’ll see… Here’s my portfolio allocation pie chart one more time:

[NB: This is from Jun-2012, but since then the only major changes (funded mostly from my Hedge Fund allocation) are: a) an increase in Property from 10% to 13%, as I continue to scale up my German property exposure (see Parts I to V – also here), and b) a large jump in Agri from 5% to 11%, due to my purchase of Donegal Creameries (DCP:ID) & its subsequent hefty appreciation. Note I don’t classify DCP as an Irish stock – after all, the company feeds people (potatoes, mushrooms & yogurt) and animals, what could offer a more ideal uncorrelated exposure?!]

Hitting The Century (VIII – Agriculture)

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agri-business, agriculture, Aqua Bounty Technologies, aquaculture, Asian Citrus Holdings, Avangardco, Black Earth Farming, Cal-Maine Foods, Canada, chickens, Cresud, eggs, ETFs, farmland, fish, forestry, free cash flow, inflation, livestock, plantations, portfolio allocation, real assets, Russia, timber, Ukraine

Continued from here. This series fell by the wayside since September, as I focused on a flurry of posts covering performance, a little shareholder activism, and some pretty exciting new stock buys/write-ups. Oh, and some bubble bursting..! 😉 As a reminder: i) Asset allocation plays a far greater role in returns than perhaps we like to think – in this series I thought I’d try illuminate some of the logic behind my own portfolio allocation & stock selection, rather than individual stock picks, and ii) this portfolio allocation pie-chart might prove handy:

The prior Century post & Inflation post are v relevant too: They highlight why I believe inflation won’t prove an issue in the near/medium term, and how to prioritize the choice of real assets (property, natural resources, agri) as inflation pure plays. My expectation of delayed inflation, despite QE Infinity, has choked back my real asset allocation. Also, I consider many of my real asset holdings more special situations, than inflation plays.

Agriculture ETFs – Can You Smell ‘Em?

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agri-business, annual reports, Archer Daniels, bank debt, BRF-Brasil Foods, contango, correlation, Deere & Co, emerging markets, ETFs, ETNs, ETPs, farmland, fertilizer stocks, food wastage, frauds, frontier markets, Gain on Biological Assets, inflation, JP Morgan, livestock, Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF, Monsanto, MOO, picks & shovels, plantations, soft commodities, Syngenta, United States Oil Fund, Wilmar, Yara

I don’t believe there’s any need to rush into Agri stocks as an inflation play right now. First, I suspect inflation will take far longer (than many currently seem to expect) to overcome the current wave of de-leveraging. And second, the primary real asset conduit for inflation, via the banks, is always Property – which eventually spills over into Natural Resources, and finally into Agri stocks (inc. soft commodities). Regardless, I still think Agri’s always an attractive asset class, and I’d be perfectly happy to increase my exposure if the right opportunities come along. Let’s recap the attractions of Agri:

– Steadily increasing demand due to global population growth (but isn’t everything..?!)

– Higher demand also (via increased consumption & waste*) due to rising global per capita incomes – basically this is an emerging/frontier markets growth story

– Rising incomes also prompt people to trade up to, and increase demand for, protein (specifically, meat), which requires far greater agricultural resources to produce

– It’s pretty insensitive to the economy: Food’s a high priority in emerging/frontier markets, and developed market food spending (as a % of income) has declined dramatically in the past 30 years. And remember, people avoid reducing calorie intake in downturns, they just make substitutions

– Obviously it requires capex & operating expense investment, but biological growth provides a wonderful (& uncorrelated) investing wind at one’s back

– Finally, of course, it offers a great (later stage) inflation play

Hitting The Century (VII – Natural Resources)

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agri-business, BP, bubbles, correlation, garbage stocks, gold, Howard Marks, idiots, inflation, junior resource stocks, miners, natural resource stocks, oil, Petroneft Resources, QE, quantitative easing, Richland Resources, silver, Statoil, Total

In my recent Inflation post, I elaborated on my conclusion that, contrary to widespread (and my prior) opinion, inflation was likely to prove a fairly distant threat. Despite the smoke rising from the bloody printing presses… And despite the Fed since confirming their long-expected QE III – or should I say: QE Forever, QE Infinity, QE God Fucking Save Us… Take your pick! You know, the mind boggles – how/why on earth does the Fed confidently expect Agency MBS purchases to smoothly flow through into improved labour conditions?!

No real need to revisit my post, just read Howard Marks’ latest instead, which came out a few days later. In his memo, he covers much of the same ground – probably in a far better & more relentless manner… [And apologies if I ramble on: Remember, with this series, my intention isn’t to necessarily write about specific stocks here, old or new. Rather it’s to give you some deeper insight into the thoughts, logic and pros & cons underlying each of my allocations].

Correlation…Schmorrelation!

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activist investors, agri-business, Asta Funding, beta, catalyst, Colony Financial, correlation, distressed assets, Europe, Event Driven, favourite stock, Fortress Investment Group, litigation funding, Margin of Safety, reading, Risk Arbitrage, risk management, stock ideas, umbrellas & ice cream, value investing, wind-down

Monday, I re-posted my appeal for your fave stock ideas, which was originally prompted by the dog days of summer. Those months when trading volume & news slows down, and you’re off for a relaxing holiday, are a perfect time to open your mind & embrace new ideas. Take along some good books for their historical perspective, magazines to dip into the current market/economy buzz, and (most importantly) stacks & stacks of annual reports. And just read, read, read..!

Personally, my focus over the summer’s been on correlation. Some investors are great at stock-picking, risk management & portfolio construction, while others are abysmal..! But, all too often, there’s precious little difference in respective performance. Because we’re all terribly correlated with the market, and with the economy – yep, we’re all making pretty much the same big bet! A preference for discounted assets, special situations & stocks with specific catalysts is my attempt to escape this correlation risk. Medium-longer term, I think this approach offers a genuine ‘edge‘ via lower beta stocks. Trouble is, shorter term, market correlation (especially in market setbacks) can simply trounce all other factors…

Hitting The Century (VI – Real Assets)

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agri-business, balance sheet, bank lending, churning, commercial property, de-leveraging, deflation, ECB, Fed, gold, inflation, natural resource stocks, portfolio allocation, residential property

Oh well, back to the grind..! Continued from here, and I guess here: I actually started writing this post the other day, but quickly got side-tracked into a different post – after all, one can’t really talk about real assets without first taking on inflation! For reference, here’s a reprint of my investment allocation pie-chart:

Avangardco Eggcelerating!

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agri-business, Angry Birds, Avangardco, Chuckie Egg, eggs, IPO, Oleg Bakhmatyuk, platformers, trading update, Ukraine, Ukrlandfarming, US ADR program

Please see my recent Avangardco (AVGR:LN) post here. Since then, it’s been interesting to see Bakhmatyuk engaging more actively with the media, for example here and here. Definitely seems to be part of a gradual ramp-up to an IPO for Ukrlandfarming (Ukr) – looks like further news may even come as early as end-May. We still don’t have any real hard info, though, but I’m encouraged by positive noises to date from the company & Bakhmatyuk, and by his explicit pairing of Avangardco & Ukr (eggs & grain) in recent comments/interviews.

However, it’s obvious a significant number of shareholders (potential, or actual) will continue to view this as a stock negative until there’s a specific transaction & terms on the table to evaluate. Ironically, a counterweight to this might well be a potential Ukr transaction itself! The buzz & analyst/media blitz ahead of an IPO would be sure to generate plenty of good publicity/attention for Avangardco also. As I’ve mentioned before, fair/preferential treatment of Avangardco shareholders in a potential Ukr transaction is essential, and would provide valuable support to Bakhmatyuk in pursuit of his longer-term ambitions. Continued maintenance of a foreign listing‘s essential also (in London, obviously, but adding a US ADR program might be attractive eventually).

Nope, Not Going Any Further with that Drag Queen..!

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agri-business, Argentina, Boy's Own, CDS spreads, Cresud, Cristina Kirchner, drag queens, Falkland Islands, farmland, intrinsic value, Margin of Safety, nationalization, Repsol YPF, Sell in May, spring cleaning, Trinity Biotech, YPF

Remember that twisted Boy’s Own holiday you took with your mates a couple of years back? You know the one, when you ended up in that very dodgy club? Yes, yes, I know it’s all a little hazy. I mean the club where the performers turned out to have a little extra..?!

Remember that blonde & the brunette?! No, not like that, I really think it was more like this. Ah yes, it’s all coming back to you now… So, do you remember when that drag queen sat in your lap, wriggled and muttered something dirty to you? And you were terrified…but strangely aroused also? Yes, shameful, I know – now stop dreaming about it.

Avangardco – Eggsotic But Eggcellent!

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agri-business, Avangardco, Baker's Dozen, Big Bird, Black Earth region, Cal-Maine Foods, Cherkizovo, Cresud, eggs, Eurobond, hryvnia, MHP, Oleg Bakhmatyuk, Sprott Resource Corp, Ukraine, Ukrlandfarming

Avangardco (AVGR:LN)

I’ve recommended Avangardco in my Baker’s Dozen for 2012, but with their recent results and share price acceleration it’s time for a complete write-up. My Black Earth articles, here and here, are helpful background also. This Black Earth interest came about when I began i) seeking agricultural plays on the increasing global demand for protein as living standards improve around the world, which evolved into ii) identifying the most fertile farmland, generally accepted to be the Black Earth region of Ukraine & Russia and the Pampas of Argentina (followed by the Canadian Prairies), and iii) finding the cheapest (but acceptably fertile) farmland globally.

I was delighted to discover the most fertile farmland coincided with some of the cheapest farmland globally, a happy accident of history! I discarded Canada due to its higher cost (and the only farmland opp. I found was Sprott Resource Corp (SCP:CN), which is more of a commodity play). In Argentina, however, I discovered the perfect farmland (and property) company to invest in! Please read here, I now have a 2.8% portfolio stake in Cresud (CRESY:US). This left me with Russia & Ukraine: Farmland companies here have v large (and cheap) land holdings, but suffer from negative cashflows and the obvious need to raise cash from investors…