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Tag Archives: Origin Enterprises

2016 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part I)

26 Tuesday Apr 2016

Posted by Wexboy in Uncategorized

≈ 16 Comments

Tags

Aryzta, Celtic Phoenix, Formation Group, Fyffes, Hibernia REIT, Independent News & Media, Irish shares, Irish Stock Exchange, Irish value investing, ISEQ, Kerry Group, Kingspan Group, Mainstay Medical International, Origin Enterprises, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, WisdomTree ETF

Um, apologies, the blog’s been quiet since early last month – though I’ve certainly been keeping up with readers via Twitter…Good Lord, I’m now up to 25K+ tweets!? Actually, I’ve been more than usually focused on stocks both old & new in my portfolio. Which seem to be increasingly bifurcated between special situation stocks where I continue to engage with/push management to enhance and realise shareholder value, and growth stocks (at the right price) where I can sit back & watch smart management compound shareholder value over time.

Hmmm, put it like that & growth stocks seem like the far more compelling choice..!? Though in reality, each presents their own unique risks/opportunities. And for me, somewhat perversely, one tends to inspire the other…dealing with recalcitrant management can inspire me to seek out smartly managed growth stocks, but actually seeing it done right, such companies also highlight the compelling value lurking out there just waiting to be tapped (sometimes, literally, overnight) if only management would come to their senses (or a third party steps in & does it for ’em).

Anyway, a little break’s a good thing – and we’re all feeling much better now, with most markets recovering their Jan/Feb losses this month. Hopefully, this new-found momentum will continue (at least ’til the usual ‘Sell in May & go away’ debate!), as markets generally remain flat/down over the past year – it’s been a tough period for nearly all concerned (spare a thought for those poor billionaire hedge fund managers!), clearly exacerbated by oil’s elevated volatility & influence.

And as promised, a good time to kick-off The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, with the ISEQ on a breather for the past year (down 0.6%) (but still over 40% off its all-time high, as set nearly a decade ago now), and the Celtic Phoenix offering more opportunity than ever… Long-time readers will be familiar with TGISVP (here’s my kick-off posts from 2012, 2013 & 2014), where I attempt to analyse & value every listed Irish stock out there (and usually piss off some tired & emotional shareholders in the process). The great thing about the Irish market is its size…one of the few globally (with about 70-80 stocks, in total) which actually presents investors with the opportunity to really get down & dirty with every single stock. And it’s a real stock pickers’ market, as I’ve previously highlighted:

‘And it’s worth noting brokers often segment the Irish market into very different sector/exposures. And so, accordingly, it tends to attract pretty dissimilar investor constituencies, who may only focus on: i) a handful of the largest caps, regardless of valuation & exposure, ii) stocks which (may) offer cheap/alternative access to overseas growth (a surprisingly large number of Irish companies are UK/Europe/globally focused), iii) stocks offering domestic exposure (notably, economic pure-plays are actually pretty rare), iv) a listed commercial & residential property sector that’s only emerged in the past couple of years, and finally (& perhaps most notoriously) v) a (junior) resource stock sector that’s been decimated in the last few years.‘

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2014 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part VI)

31 Monday Mar 2014

Posted by Wexboy in Uncategorized

≈ 7 Comments

Tags

Aryzta, GameAccount Network, Green REIT, Irish shares, Irish Stock Exchange, Irish value investing, ISEQ, iShares MSCI Ireland Capped ETF, Kentz Corp, New Ireland Fund, Origin Enterprises, Permanent TSB Group Holdings, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project

Continued from here:

[NB: Worth revisiting Part I if you’re a new reader, or you’d like a refresher on TGISVP & my approach to the whole project.]

Company:   Green REIT

Prior Post(s):   2013

Ticker:  GRN:ID

Price:   EUR 1.20

Since I first wrote about Green in August, not a lot’s changed fundamentally. But boy, it’s been a fun ride! The share price actually traded up to a EUR 1.479 high since then, an astonishing 53% premium to NAV. In fact, I’m bemused to see GRN’s all-time closing high (of EUR 1.442) was set on December 31st. [And has suffered a steady decline since. Same for Hibernia REIT (HBRN:ID)]. It’s so obvious, it’s laughable… Hmmm, if you already owned a decent slug of shares, wouldn’t it be sooo tempting to spend just a little more driving the price higher? Sure, it would raise your average entry price marginally, but also do wonders for your year-end mark-to-market! 😉 Unfortunately (or fortunately!), the Irish market’s a good venue for this type of fun & games – prices can sometimes be pushed around with surprising ease. It’s not like anybody expects the Irish exchange will ever bother doing anything about it…

Then there’s the problem of over-enthusiastic & naive investors. God forbid I compare property & junior resource stock investors, but sometimes I wonder… When it comes to real assets, too many investors seem to think something magical happens when they’re acquired by listed companies. A resource CEO throws together a rag-bag of exploration licences (acquired for a few million), IPOs the company, and minutes later the same assets are worth 50 million plus! As for property, there’s the old joke: ‘Yeah, they just bought it for X million. Wow, that’s an amazing property, you won’t see another like it…I wonder how much it’s worth?!’ Yes, I actually get emails like this: ‘The Green REIT portfolio’s on a tasty 8.7% yield – what do you think it’s worth?’ Er, pretty much what they fucking paid for it three months ago, I would think!

[I’m really not trying to mock Irish/UK investors here. The real lunatics are in the US, of course – where investors are willingly sucked into that other great blood funnel, the REIT/MLP machine. All too often, valuations bear little relationship to actual asset values, but nobody cares… Kennedy-Wilson Holdings (KW:US) is a great example – now a much-vaunted name on the European side of the pond, but how many investors have actually checked out the parent company listing? It trades on an astonishing 2.3 times book!]

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2013 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part VII)

05 Tuesday Mar 2013

Posted by Wexboy in Uncategorized

≈ 7 Comments

Tags

Aryzta, Austevoll, Bank of Ireland, Bill Ackman, Continental Farmers Group, Galantas Gold, Gillian Bowler, gold, Herbalife, IMC Exploration Group, Irish shares, Irish value investing, John Teeling, Liam McGrattan, Nial Ring, Origin Enterprises, Permanent TSB Group Holdings, Petrel Resources, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, Trinity Biotech, US Oil & Gas

Continued from here.

Company:   Petrel Resources

Prior Post:   Here

Ticker:   PET:LN

Price:   GBP 16.75p

We should include at least one John Teeling company in every TGISVP post, eh?! Believe it or not, Petrel’s been around (in one form, or another) for 30+ yrs now! This long-term chart covers less than half that period, but I think it neatly summarizes the company’s progress – or rather, lack of fucking progress, over its lifetime:

Petrel

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The Great Irish Share Valuation Project IV

08 Wednesday Feb 2012

Posted by Wexboy in Uncategorized

≈ 14 Comments

Tags

Atlantic Resources, Austevoll, Continental Farmers Group, Hoarders, Independent News & Media, Limited Brands, Merrion Pharm, Origin Enterprises, Ormonde Mining, Ovoca Gold, Paddy Power, Petroceltic, Petroneft Resources, Polymetal, Prime Active Capital, Providence Resources, Readymix, Ryanair, TGISVP

Continued from here:

OK, time to tackle another batch of 10 Irish stocks. First, let me insert the Excel files. Again, all market prices (and FX rates) are updated, so this is a live snapshot of all stocks covered to date (with each stock’s upside/downside potential also recalculated vs. its valuation).

As I’ve mentioned before, please feel free to provide your own Price Targets on the Template sheet – it would be greatly appreciated by me, and many of my readers. If you disagree with some of my valuations, this is a great way to express yourself! I think we can all learn a lot more from divergent rather than convergent views on stocks..! Here are full notes/instructions if you wish to submit any Price Targets.

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