2016 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part IV)

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Botswana Diamonds, Brexit, Connemara Mining Company, Dalata Hotel Group, GAN, Green REIT, Irish shares, Irish Stock Exchange, Irish value investing, ISEQ, Mincon Group, New Ireland Fund, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, UDG Healthcare

Continued from here.

Apologies, I abandoned TGISVP for a few months there…dealing with a mild case of PBSD. Yes, I mean Post-Brexit Stress Disorder, which I suspect the entire island’s been experiencing too! Dare I say it, Ireland’s officially the kids in this bloody divorce – did Brexiteers ever stop & consider them when they were voting? Which begs the question:

What did they really think they were voting for..?!

Noting the 51.9% final tally for the Leave vote, we can presume a distinct minority of the population specifically voted for Hard Brexit. And yet, that’s what the UK now seems to be getting. [Again, when the Tories voted for Theresa May, what did they really think they were voting for..?!] But maybe it was inevitable…by default, Remainers now favour a Soft Brexit, which unfortunately seems to have persuaded the entire Leave campaign they believed in Hard Brexit from day one. And that’s what we’re seeing reflected in May’s government, which on occasion appears to have swung even to the right of Enoch Powell, and where Hammond & Carney were even branded traitors for simply highlighting some of the inevitable fiscal/economic consequences of a (Hard) Brexit. And anyway, the Soft Brexit peddled by the Leave campaign was sheer fantasy – no open borders (except the Irish border!?), no nasty EU-type regulations, free trade into the EU, jobs for all, etc. – basically, you can have your cake & eat it too (ooh la la, that’s a bit French!). In the end, it’s hard to know which was worse – the cynicism of the Leave campaign, or the gullibility of millions of Brexit voters who swallowed it hook, line & sinker…

But anyway, despite May’s current stance, we’re really no better informed than we were in the aftermath of the referendum, and it will be a few years down the road (possibly with an additional transition period) before a new Brexit reality’s nailed down properly. [And never under-estimate the possibility of another referendum!] Which means it’s still nigh on impossible to evaluate the potential future impact on Irish companies & the economy – overall, my (generally positive) perspective on Brexit hasn’t changed much since July, with the EUR/GBP rate still presenting the primary medium-term challenge. [Fortunately, the rate’s back within a percent of July levels, after hitting 0.9100+ in October]. But as I’ve highlighted before, Irish companies have actually proven themselves time & again over decades of Irish-UK exchange rate volatility. And looking at a longer term chart, today’s rate isn’t all that extraordinary anyway:

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2014 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part VI)

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Aryzta, GameAccount Network, Green REIT, Irish shares, Irish Stock Exchange, Irish value investing, ISEQ, iShares MSCI Ireland Capped ETF, Kentz Corp, New Ireland Fund, Origin Enterprises, Permanent TSB Group Holdings, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project

Continued from here:

[NB: Worth revisiting Part I if you’re a new reader, or you’d like a refresher on TGISVP & my approach to the whole project.]

Company:   Green REIT

Prior Post(s):   2013

Ticker:  GRN:ID

Price:   EUR 1.20

Since I first wrote about Green in August, not a lot’s changed fundamentally. But boy, it’s been a fun ride! The share price actually traded up to a EUR 1.479 high since then, an astonishing 53% premium to NAV. In fact, I’m bemused to see GRN’s all-time closing high (of EUR 1.442) was set on December 31st. [And has suffered a steady decline since. Same for Hibernia REIT (HBRN:ID)]. It’s so obvious, it’s laughable… Hmmm, if you already owned a decent slug of shares, wouldn’t it be sooo tempting to spend just a little more driving the price higher? Sure, it would raise your average entry price marginally, but also do wonders for your year-end mark-to-market! 😉 Unfortunately (or fortunately!), the Irish market’s a good venue for this type of fun & games – prices can sometimes be pushed around with surprising ease. It’s not like anybody expects the Irish exchange will ever bother doing anything about it…

Then there’s the problem of over-enthusiastic & naive investors. God forbid I compare property & junior resource stock investors, but sometimes I wonder… When it comes to real assets, too many investors seem to think something magical happens when they’re acquired by listed companies. A resource CEO throws together a rag-bag of exploration licences (acquired for a few million), IPOs the company, and minutes later the same assets are worth 50 million plus! As for property, there’s the old joke: ‘Yeah, they just bought it for X million. Wow, that’s an amazing property, you won’t see another like it…I wonder how much it’s worth?!’ Yes, I actually get emails like this: ‘The Green REIT portfolio’s on a tasty 8.7% yield – what do you think it’s worth?’ Er, pretty much what they fucking paid for it three months ago, I would think!

[I’m really not trying to mock Irish/UK investors here. The real lunatics are in the US, of course – where investors are willingly sucked into that other great blood funnel, the REIT/MLP machine. All too often, valuations bear little relationship to actual asset values, but nobody cares… Kennedy-Wilson Holdings (KW:US) is a great example – now a much-vaunted name on the European side of the pond, but how many investors have actually checked out the parent company listing? It trades on an astonishing 2.3 times book!]

2013 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part VIII)

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Aer Lingus Group, Anton Bilton, distressed investing, equine DNA, Greencore Group, IMC Exploration Group, Irish shares, Irish value investing, ISEQ 20 ETF, iShares MSCI Ireland ETF, New Ireland Fund, Orogen Gold, Pension Deficit, Ryanair Holdings, Smurfit Kappa Group, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, Uniq plc

Continued from here.

Company:   Greencore Group

Prior Post:   Here     (valuation, see here & here for commentary!)

Ticker:   GNC:LN

Price:   GBP 95.75p

Well, I guess my perspective on Greencore last year was horribly wrong..! I’ve long considered GNC a distressed company, but the market clearly disagrees. So much so, the share price rallied almost 70% in the past year – my price target (of GBP 32.5p) was certainly left choking in the dust! But if my distressed premise is correct – and, objectively, I can’t see how you’d disagree with me – this rally isn’t so surprising. What..?! But companies like this are always a binary proposition – they simply die, or they survive & maybe even thrive eventually. And if everybody still feels blithely happy about them, they present a temptingly cheap buy. Greencore’s also a nice scary reminder of how dangerous shorting can be – poor underlying fundamentals are often ignored far longer than you can take the pain…

2013 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part IV)

Tags

Conroy Gold & Natural Resources, DCC, FBD Holdings, Irish shares, Irish value investing, Kingspan, New Ireland Fund, Paddy Power, Pageant Holdings, Papua Mining, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, Zamano

Continued from here. If you’re only joining the series now, I recommend you first read my first TGISVP post this year. And so, without further ado, let’s dive straight into my next (random) bunch of Irish stocks:

_

Company:   New Ireland Fund

Prior Post:   Here

Ticker:   IRL:US

Price:   USD 9.919

The New Ireland Fund is the only closed-end fund now investing in Irish shares. [Hopefully, when general Irish sentiment is sufficiently improved, Gervais Williams might see fit to launch a new Irish investment trust]. The share’s made decent progress in the past year, slightly exceeding my price target. This was really due to NAV appreciation, however, as the NAV discount remained steady around 12%. With Phillip Goldstein, of Bulldog Investors, selling much of his 13% stake in the past year, that’s a pretty creditable performance.

FBD Holdings – COR Blimey, Mate!

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Andrew Langford, Baker's Dozen, Berkshire Hathaway, catalyst, Combined Operating Ratio, Fairfax Financial, FBD, FBD Holdings, Greenlight Capital, insurance, Ireland, ISEQ, New Ireland Fund, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, property & casualty, Quinn Insurance, Return on Equity, TGISVP, underwriting

Insurance companies are intriguing! Maybe it’s my inner value investor, but I suspect it’s really the mathematician in me… They’re like giant Rube Goldberg contraptions – it’s fascinating to contemplate the interaction & logic that dictates the inner workings of the machine. Trouble is, you’re never quite sure it won’t blow up in your face! Investment portfolios can be full of land mines, and debt can fatally exacerbate risk. Underwriting risk may present the most dangerous risk. A company can write far too much insurance, at far too low a price, and nobody might be any the wiser for years to come…

The first line of defence is industry & government regulation. As I highlighted here, the regulators have generally done a better job (than, for example, bank regulators!). But good investors need to be self-reliant – S&P and Moody’s reminded us of that! Your choice of company can lower risk substantially. Focus on those with i) low(er) risk/plain vanilla investment portfolios, ii) low/zero levels of debt, iii) consistent & profitable underwriting records, and iv) less exposure to tail risk & the tyranny of discount rates (go for property & casualty (P&C) insurers, not life or re-insurers!). Of course, lower risk might just equate with boring – we’d like something more exceptional…

At this point (um, damn title!), you’d probably have expected me to home in on an insurance company CEO and/or CIO who’s an exceptional investor: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A:US), Fairfax Financial (FFH:CN), and Greenlight Capital Re (GLRE:US) are classic examples, and all look attractive from a value perspective. But there’s a much less flashy/newsworthy way to run an insurance company: Exceptional underwriting.

The Great Irish Share Valuation Project X

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Fiomi Diagnostics, Galantas Gold, George Soros, John Teeling, Lisa B, Minco, NAMA, New Ireland Fund, Norish, O'Donoghues, Oisin Fanning, Orogen Gold, Papua Mining, Papua New Guinea, Petrel Resources, Phillip Goldstein, Rathdowney Resources, Raven Russia, Real Estate Opportunities, San Leon Energy, shorting, Strongbow Capital, TGISVP, Trinity Biotech

Continued from here:

OK, we’re in the home straight now, at least within the original valuation stage of TGISVP. Eight companies left, mostly junior resource companies, so that should be fun..! I’ve booted Real Estate Opportunities (REO:LN), as trading was suspended in January. And please, let’s not bother talking about NAMA, court cases etc… For years now, REO’s had terrible corporate governance, far too much leverage, and pretty much promised to totally fuck investors... And so it has come to pass, and shareholders don’t even have a luxury Moroccan get-away to show for it…

I’ve no desire to short shares usually – a value mindset is far too dangerous an attribute to possess if you want to play that game. But watching REO fly far too close to the sun, and not even notice its wings were melting, I just got far too itchy… I really wasn’t worried what the price was – GBP 20p, 5p, 3p…who cares when it’s going to zero anyway. Unfortunately, I couldn’t find a spread-better who would deal in it – even Worldspreads (and their zero spreads…), if I recall..!? Perhaps I didn’t ring around/push hard enough? If anybody managed to do this successfully, I’d love to hear more details?